Elizabeth Warren’s days in the running for the Democratic nomination ARE very low numbered…
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is trailing Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in her home state of Massachusetts, according to a new poll of likely Democratic presidential primary voters in the Bay State.
Twenty-five percent of respondents said they supported the Vermont senator, while 17 percent said they supported Warren, according to the WBUR poll.
Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg came in third place with 14 percent support, while former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberggarnered 13 percent.
Nine percent of respondents said they supported former Vice President Joe Biden.
The most recent RealClearPolitics polling average shows Sanders leading the Democratic pack in the state by 3.7 percent.
The survey comes days before Massachusetts voters head to the polls on Super Tuesday — when an additional 13 other states hold contests. Massachusetts will award 91 pledged delegates….
Note…
The only thing is the poll IS small, less than 500 people and has a 4.9 MOE…
image…realclearpolitics.com
Obviously if Warren loses Massachusetts?
There is no longer any rationale for her candidacy.
No fewer than four of the eight major candidates will be on their home states’ ballots on SuperTuesday, and it’s possible that as many as three of them could lose at home:
Vermont: Bernie Sanders (independent)
Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren (R>D)
Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
California: Tom Steyer
Tulsi Gabbard could lose in the April 4 caucuses in her home state of Hawai’i
The other candidates (two of whom could lose at home) hale from:
New York (April 28): Mike Bloomberg (D>R>ind.>D)
Delaware (April 28): Joe Biden
Indiana (May 5): Pete Buttigieg
In fact the only candidates who have a strong to very-strong probability of winning at home are Biden (Del.) and Sanders (Vt).
The two guys who I think will be the last two standing…
Klobuchar will win at home
If we see Klobuchar winning Minnesota and Warren taking Massachusetts would set them up as favorite son–or in this case daughter–candidates if we were to have a contested convention.
John Kasich after winning Ohio seemed to set himself up the same way 4 years ago. But the GOP winner take all primaries make it even less likely that a candidacy like that can eventually be successful.
Although I haven’t yet looked it up as I should, I don’t think that by herself, either Mass (only McGovern state) or Minn (only Mondale state) has a large enough delegation for her favorite daughter to broker a contested convention by swinging towards a particular consensus candidate.
I don’t know how you make any such conclusion.
In a multi ballot convention, literally every vote counts.So,theoretically, could the votes of an individual state be decisive?Maybe not likely,,but certainly possible.
I agree
Massachusetts has 114 delegates (already pledged or to be elected on Tuesday). while Minnesota has 91.
And let’s be honest here.
Sanders is 78, had a heart attack a few months ago, and we still haven’t seen his medical records.
If Bernie has a plurality after the end of primaries on June 2–and has a health scare a few weeks later–Warren still holding on to her delegates from Massachusetts will look pretty good as an alternative.
You guys think Warren will have enough money to hang on till April or May?
REALLY????
Same with Klobuchar and Buttieg?
REALLY????
Why would they need any money?
You simply don’t understand what is being discussed.
Warren and Klobuchar ,if they win there home states, have those delegates committed to vote for them on the first ballot.
Even if they quit active campaigning that holds unless they release them.