This IS the first fairly large and diverse state to vote….
It is the second state to hold a caucus Not direct primary vote…
There could be several ballot calls…
Bernie Sanders IS expected to win the most votes according to most polls…
He could actually win the vote count and come in 2nd in the delegate’s (36 are up for grabs)…
Nevada will send 36 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Twenty-three of those national delegates will be doled out based on the results from the four congressional districts. The rest — five pledged party leader and elected official (PLEO) delegates and eight at-large delegates — will be allocated based on the state-wide vote. Only candidates who win 15% or more of the statewide vote will qualify for any of the PLEO or at-large delegates.
The first step, however, will be determining how many delegates each campaign gets to send to the county convention. Each precinct awards a set number of delegates to the county convention, and when results are released on Saturday (or after), they’ll be in terms of those county-level delegates.
The state’s proportional distribution of delegates means that the candidates with the most county-level delegates on Saturday might not have the most delegates at the national convention. In 2008, Hillary Clinton won 51% of the county-level delegate count to Barack Obama’s 45%. But because Obama’s support was spread across the state — including rural areas — he ended up beating her in the national delegate count.
Who can caucus?
Anyone registered as a Democrat who will be 18 years old by the November general election can participate in the caucus. Same-day voter registration is available. Nevada is continuing its tradition of offering caucus locations on the Las Vegas Strip for shift workers.
Are Republicans caucusing, too?
No. The Nevada GOP decided last year to cancel its caucus and will vote to bind its delegates to President Trump, who held a rally in Las Vegas on Friday.
Who’s on the presidential preference card?
There are 13 candidates for Democrats to choose from on the card, but six of them have dropped out since the presidential preference card was finalized last month.
The candidates on the ballot and still in the race are: former Vice President Joe Biden, former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, former hedge-fund manager Tom Steyer, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Former New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg is not on the ballot. The billionaire skipped the first four nominating states to invest in the contests starting March 3, also known as Super Tuesday….
Nevada caucus updates here….
image…NationalMemo.Com
Rachel “The Doc” Bitecofer
@RachelBitecofer
Fun fact: Nevada has same-day registration which means anyone can still participate in the NV Caucus
3.1% in…..
Sanders 54%
Biden 17%
At this rate?
No call for a few weeks???
sanders 54.1
biden 17.5
3.7% in
AP calls Nevada for Sanders
Interesting …..
Politico
Bernie Sanders had 54% of the county delegates available when three national news networks called the race with only 4% of precincts reporting. politi.co/2PhE8k5
4% of the vote is in….
AP. is calling this with 4 delegates awarded right now …..
Sanders @54%
Biden @17%
96% of the vote isn’t counted acrording the link we have here …
Ink if AP. has more advanced data
There was supposed to be 3 separate calls….
Hmmmmm?
ok
The sanders call is a projection
Rich Klein
Based on out analysis of the vote in so far, @ABC News projects that Sanders will win the Nevada Caucuses
Five Thirty Eight
Buttigieg is going after Sanders in his speech tonight.
This could be some foreshadowing for how the Res of the Democratic field will react in Tuesday night’s debate.
Sanders WAS up to win this …..
It shouldn’t be a surprise …
The pundits giving him the party and the nomination are WTF ahead of themselves…
4.1% in….
Sanders 54%
Biden 18%
Warren 10%
Sanders final numbers are NOT gonna be as high as they are now…
But he will win….
Five Thirty Eight
Edison (used by e.g. ABC News and CNN) has Sanders at 35% of the first-alignment vote so far, vs. 43% for AP (used by e.g. the NYT). He seems quite likely to win comfortably either way but that’s nonetheless a reasonably big difference.
Well…Well
What do we see going on here ?
With up to 11.2 % counted?
We see Sanders numbers dropping…
Biden climbing…
And Buttigieg climbing into 3 place ahead of Warren…
The numbers are bound to keep breaking this way with numbers away from the places with younger voters…
Sanders IS bound to get the popular vote…
But his margin IS shrinking
Sanders 46.6
Biden 23.8
Buttigieg 13.6
Warren 8
Biden is meeting expectations…
He was supposed to come in second…
….caucus locations opening at 10 am Pacific and the actual caucuses scheduled to begin at 12 pm Pacific (or 3 pm Eastern)…
The caucus process has begun…
Sanders leads in entrance polls like in Iowa where Buttigieg won…
This will be a blowout win for Sanders. Perhaps 2-1.
Who will finish the distant 2nd? That’s going to be the only person who will be able to pretend to happy.
Will Warren be ahead of Klobuchar?
Will Buttigieg be ahead of Klobuchar?
She’s already been behind Pete twice in a row and she needs to maintain a 1 game winning streak over Warren.
Early result which are no indicative
CD’s
Sanders 45
Biden 33
That is Sanders 38%
Biden 35%
THAT seems to NOT be blowout
We’ll have to see more…
Popular vote count right now…
Sanders 51.1%
Biden…25.3%
Steyer….11.2%
Two or 3 counties I believe
28 of 2,097 percents ….1.3% in
FiveThirtyEight
@FiveThirtyEight
The Nevada Democratic Party reported earlier today that more than 10,000 Nevadans had registered as Democrats for the first time during early voting.
Sanders 54%
Biden 21%
2% in
Results will take a long time
Nobody out there wants to mess up….
Fox News has called Nevada “overwhelmingly “ for Bernie Sanders thus confirming CGs call of earlier.
If the current numbers are anyway near right,this is a major defeat for all the other candidates,
Biden now limps into SC .Its likely that the steady erosion in his support here that we have seen over the past few weeks will only accelerate.Indeed his campaign may end a week from now.
It’s hard to make an argument for either Warren or Klobuchar. Going forward.If they stay in , where, besides maybe their home states do they win?
Buttigieg?Well since he essentially tied Sanders in Iowa maybe he goes ona little longer ,but he ,as well as Warren and Klobuchar, will likely run into money troubles pretty quickly.
Looks like it could be Sanders v. Bloomberg pretty quickly.
We’ll wait for the other 97% To come in?
Oh wait?
We don”t need the rest of the Nevada. one or the rest of the primaries!
The pundits are falling all over themselves declaring Sanders has the nomination and could beat Trump‼️
This from a guy who declared Joe Biden the nominee before the first vote was even cast!
Yup….
I STILL see how Joe could pull it off…
it involves UR state and the rest of the Southern Democrats…
While I’m certainly no fan of Fox News,their “calls” have always been accurate.
They wouldn’t go out on a limb without being very sure of their prediction .
I’m pretty sure Bernie gets a nice win…
But again with only 3% in?
Come ON!?
I am looking for a good Biden 2nd place …
Nathaniel Rakich
For the second straight caucus, campaigns are trying to fill the results vacuum with their own (possibly skewed) “results.”
Hope springs eternal.
Yes indeed…
Joe Biden looks like he’s gonna be where he was thought to be…In second place right now…climbing on Bernie… only 11.6% in 88% more and this could get a bit closer….
22.7 in
Sanders 47
Biden 23.4
Buttigieg 13.4
warren 9.0
Klobuchar and maybe even Warren AARE DONE….
They can try to limp into Super Tuesday but they are gonna run out of money…
27.2 in
Sanders 46.6
Biden. 22.8
Buttigieg. 13.4
Warren 9.0
43% in
Sanders 46.8
Biden 20.7
Buttigieg 15.2
Warren 9
Buttigieg gaining on Biden
In my view, everyone is “limping” ,except for Sanders.
In my view Sanders and Biden performed exactly the way the polls called it….
I’ll have a after action report post around midday….
Sanders has earned 7 delegates in Nevada right now….
Others none so far…
Only in your cheerleading world can this be construed as a”good” night for Biden.
He is probably going to lose by 25 or so points.
It wasn’t close and, except for you, no one is claiming it was.So put away your Pom Poms and try to be serious .
Biden is in deep trouble.
He is at best 50/ 50 in SC.The Charleston paper this morning is labeling Saturday next as “Bidens last stand.”His workers are essentially admitting that there is no enthusiasm and that they are simply hoping he can hang on.
Getting creamed by 25 points does not create momentum ,your meaningless touting of a “second place” finish as meeting “expectations “ notwithstanding.
If Sanders is to be stopped, and that’s increasingly a forlorn hope,”Money Mike” as you call him is likely the last chance .
I have always liked Joe Biden and voted for him (early voting) but it is increasingly clear that he simply is highly unlikely to be able to rejuvenate his candidacy .
We KNOW Biden HAS to win in SC….
There have been 3 states voting….
1,900+ delegates are needed….
Sanders has 31….
Biden has 6….
We should suspend thew count and crown Bernie Sanders the nominee🙄?
NOT me….
We have a ways to go…..
Your insignificant delegate totals are irrelevant to anything.
Sanders has all the momentum There is really nothing presently standing in his way, except Bloomberg and his financial resources.
Warren and Klobuchar are no longer viable at all.
Where does Buttigieg next win ?
And after maybe S.C.?Biden?
While you mindlessly prattle about “a ways to go?”
One third of the delegates will be chosen in a mere Nine Days.
Absent a total crackup,it’s increasingly looking that the only way to stop Sanders is to unite behind one candidate and hope for a multi ballot convention; otherwise, he is now likely to be the nominee.
Thanks DSD….
I think i posted up 60%?
Sanders getting 10 delegates yup…
Still 40% outstanding ….
it appears that the Buttigieg campaign may launch a challenge to try see if they can get a recount to edge Biden out of second…
A little levity….
Chris Cillizza
@CillizzaCNN
Reminder: Joe Biden has run for president 3 times and *still* never won a primary or caucus
…
dominic
@Globalmess65
Replying to
@CillizzaCNN
That will change next sat.
Like I said 50/50 at best and even then a rather narrow victory in low single digits.
Given his massive lead a month or so ago?
Will be portrayed as “disappointing.”
6:45 a.m. Sunday 23 February (Bing)
36 delegates in Nevada
RACE CALLED
49.88% precincts reporting
Candidate
Delegates added
Votes
Percent of vote
Bernie Sanders
7 delegates
3,564 votes
46.64% of votes
Joe Biden
0
1,471
19.25%
Pete Buttigieg
0
1,175
15.38%
Elizabeth Warren
0
785
10.27%
Amy Klobuchar
0
345
4.51%
Tom Steyer
0
288
3.77%
Each of the other candidates received fewer than 5 votes.
3,564 Bernie Sanders
3,431 Biden + Buttigieg + Warren
_,633 Klobuchar + Steyer
_,__9 Gabbard + Yang + Bennet + Patrick
_,__5 all others
36 delegates in Nevada
RACE CALLED
60.37% precincts reporting
Candidate
Delegates added
Votes
Percent of vote
Bernie Sanders
10 delegates so far out of 36
3,523 votes
46.04% of vote
Joe Biden
0
1,496
19.55%
Pete Buttigieg
0
1,172
15.32%
Elizabeth Warren
0
773
10.10%
Amy Klobuchar
0
364
4.76%
Tom Steyer
0
310
4.05%
Tulsi Gabbard
0
4
0.05%
Andrew Yang
0
2
0.03%
Michael Bennet
0
2
0.03%
Deval Patrick
0
1
0.01%
Other candidates
0
5
0.07%
46% Sanders
45% Biden + Buttigieg + Warren
8.8% Klobuchar + Steyer
0.2% others
A Boston Globe column with which the Moderator (woof-woof!) will agree far more than I — presented, as Rod Serling would say, for your consideration:
The ambition of Bernie Sanders
¶ He may be known for the consistency of his views, but he’ll bend them to get what he wants.
By Michael A. Cohen Globe Columnist,
Updated February 21, 2020, 3:10 p.m.
If there is one trait that has come to define Bernie Sanders it is the consistency of his beliefs. He’s been a democratic socialist all his life and he’s been railing against the wealthy, income inequality, and a “rigged” political system for years.
But in his second run for the White House — and as the Democratic Party’s newly minted front-runner — we are seeing, again, that his steadfast adherence to principle can drop off when it doesn’t serve his political ambition.
In recent days, Sanders has taken the position that the candidate with the most delegates at the end of Democratic primaries and caucuses — which is likely to be him — should become the nominee, even if that person doesn’t have the majority of delegates required to win the nomination outright. “The will of the people should prevail,” he says.
Four years ago, he was saying the exact opposite.
In May 2016, when Hillary Clinton had the most delegates in the Democratic race — and was well on her way to winning the Democratic nomination — Sanders argued that it shouldn’t matter. Citing polls that showed him to be the stronger candidate in a head-to-head matchup with Donald Trump, he urged Democratic super delegates — party honchos who get to weigh in at the party’s convention — to “go into their hearts” and “ask themselves, do they want the second strongest candidate to run against Trump or do they want the strongest candidate?” Such introspection, he believed, would lead them to conclude, “‘You know what? Bernie has the better chance of defeating Trump and that is what is most important.’”
Sanders’ fear this time around is that, if he only has a plurality of the delegates awarded in primaries and caucuses, super delegates will — at the Democratic National Convention — do what he wanted them to do four years ago: side with the candidate most likely to beat Donald Trump.
Sanders was saying in 2016 that, in effect, the will of the people shouldn’t matter. At the time, it was a position that appeared to be in direct conflict with the political ideals he’d long espoused. But it was his only path to the nomination and so expediency won the day. This year he is making the precise opposite argument. The commonality between the two positions is that they both benefit his political aspirations….
Continued here…
60.4 % in…
Sanders….46.0
Biden….19.6
Buttigieg…15.3
Warren….10.1
Klobuchar…4.8%
Steyer….4.1%
71.6% in…
Sanders….47.5%
Biden…..20.8%
Buttigieg..13.7
Warren……9.4%
Steyer……..4.5%
Klobuchar…..4.0%
Biden will get delegates besides Sanders if his percentage stays where it has been …..
If the others do NOT?
Biden will move up to 3rd in delegates behind Sanders and Buttigieg….
SC could put Biden close to Sanders in second place going into Super Tuesday…
Sanders has 10 delegates from Nevada 31 overall….
87.6% in….
Sanders….47.1%
Biden……21.0%
Buttigieg ..13.7%
Warren…..9.6%
Steyer…..4.7%
Klobuchar….3.9%
Again….
Biden WILL get delegates….
Unkown if any others would when the 15% threshold is applied…
87% in…(Final Allinement)
Sanders….40.7%
Biden……19.7%
Buttigieg…17.1
Warren….11.2
Klobuchar…6.7%
Steyer….4.0%
Looks like Buttigieg has moved into delegate territory and has closed on Biden….
(These numbers I am now unsure of…But would give Pete the 1 delegate )
9:44 EST…
Nevada delegates earned…
Wiki is showing Sanders with 13 delegates
Biden with 2 delegates
Buttigieg with 1 delegate…
Detailed returns (+ subtotals)
here
New CBS News Poll in SC….
Biden…28%
Sanders…23%
Steyer…18%
Warren…12%
Buttigieg…10%
Klobuchar…4%
Yo Jack!
Do you think Sanders will win SC?
All things considered, that is a good poll for Biden. I still think Sanders probably wins there, but a lot of panic over Sanders could lead to a vote for Biden as the most talked about option to beat him there.
Afterwards though, it is very hard to see where Biden can win anywhere else. It would almost be comparable to Kasich surviving in the Ohio primary. But all people who want to stop Sanders should probably hope for a Biden win obviously in SC, because it is going to get to the point where it will just be about denying Sanders enough delegates to win on the first ballot at the convention. Unless he totally collapses (and his base seems impervious to anything), he is going to go into Milwaukee leading in delegates.
As I have said, Bloomberg may be the only one with the resources and the lack of fear about his political future to go overwhelmingly negative on Sanders. One way or another, Democrats are going to head into the general election pretty divided.
If Biden win SC?
It SHOULD help him in Super Tuesday which 2 days afterwards….
Biden’s best bet is a Texas primary win and then varying most of the Southern states.,.
Yes CG
Scared moderates need to get off their asses and come out for Biden who has Buttigieg splitting the moderate vote with him, thus helping Bernie….
I generally agree with CGs post above.
I think Biden might have a little better chance ..Jim Clyburn has issued an anti Sanders statement which might help with the Black vote.
“Scared moderates” should vote for Biden in SC, and then for Bloomberg afterwards.
So I a”scared moderate” voted for Biden!
At the start of the campaign, Biden held a substantial lead over the other Democrats in head-to-head vs Trump. Now after months of campaigning, discussions and debates, Sanders now slightly outperforms all of the other Democrats – especially Bloomberg in head to head vs. Trump. In the General Election matchup, Trump beats Bloomberg by 3 while Sanders beats Trump by 3. All of the other Democrats are somewhere less than Sanders, but better than Bloomberg.
I went into the last debate thinking that the three Democrats most likely to defeat Trump were Sanders, Klobuchar and Bloomberg. Both Klobuchar and Bloomberg had an exceptionally disastrous debate. If Klobuchar is going to get rattled that much by Mayor Pete, how will she react when Trump pushes her buttons far harder. And what the hell was Bloomberg thinking when he said he would release the NDA from three women? Did he think that would possibly satisfy his critics. With that terrible response – which by the way shows a lack of political acumen – I don’t think Bloomberg can fully recover from that.
I will still vote for the Democrat that I think is most likely to defeat Trump. As of today, it is clearly Bernie. It is not that I am particularly confident Bernie will win, but I am rather pessimistic that the other Democrats will lose.