The independent Socialist ‘Democratic’ Senator from the small state of Vermont is actually 1 for 2 in the first two Democratic contests….
Pete Buttigieg ‘won’ more delegates than Sanders in Iowa although, as feared, Sanders has tried to sell it as a ‘win’….
Sanders did win the New Hampshire Democratic primary…
But by a 2% margin , 58% less then he did against Hillary Clinton four years ago…
Sanders support has polled as narrow , mostly young group, that is strongly loyal to him in manner that looks a lot like Trump supporters…Most Democrats are in fact to the ‘right’ of Bernie Sanders policies and those policies worry party leaders for the general election against Donald Trump…
The media seems to ‘love’ the noise around the fact that Sanders, at 78, has had a heart attack, but seems to be his old hard pushing self…
BUT?
A look under the Sanders political hood finds the ‘perception’ to NOT be all of the truth on his campaigns strength…
(Joe Biden’s campaign is has NOT been as good in selling their case to the media and the public)
But then?
Politics often IS perceptions carried by campaigns and the media, eh?
Yet the early returns show that Sanders’s loyal army represents a limited slice of the party, accounting for just over a quarter of the vote in each of the first two states. And one of the central premises of his campaign — that it is built to activate legions of new voters and spur record turnout among young people — has not been realized.
Perhaps more troubling for Sanders are the signals that he is having difficulties expanding his appeal beyond his staunchest backers. Half the voters in Tuesday’s Democratic primary in New Hampshire said his positions were too liberal, according to exit polls. He has struggled among older voters, who make up a significant part of the Democratic electorate, and in some suburban areas similar to places analysts say could be key in upcoming races. Critics also say hostility from his fervent followers makes some potential supporters feel unwelcome.
In the 2016 primary race, Sanders emerged as the single counterweight to the establishment favorite, Hillary Clinton, but this time the electorate is more fractured, with many who might have backed him four years ago now looking at a range of choices — and Democratic voters of all ideologies putting a premium on a candidate’s perceived ability to defeat President Trump.
“If Sanders is counting on expanding the Democratic base to make the case for electability in the fall, that’s just not happening so far,” said David Wasserman, an analyst with the Cook Political Report. “If anything, the evidence shows the Democratic primary electorate has become more pragmatic than in 2016.”
Tensions surrounding Sanders’s coalition erupted into public view this week when the Culinary Union, the largest organized labor group in Nevada, said Sanders supporters “viciously attacked” it for arguing that the senator’s Medicare-for-all plan would undercut the health coverage it has negotiated for its members. Sanders cast doubt on whether his backers were responsible, making air quotes with his hands during a PBS interview as he said, “I don’t know who these so-called ‘supporters’ are.”…
top image..APNews.Com
His numbers in the Florida poll were pretty abysmal,
And while Sanders people claim that dropping from 60% in New Hampshire in 2016 to 26% this year is because it is no longer a binary choice, it doesn’t appear that those who know him best are as jazzed about his run this time around.
Shhhhhh Scott!
Don’t say THAT out loud🙄….
Why not?
Are you implying that any of the posters here are supporting Sanders?
If so, name them.
If not?Whats the point of such an inane comment?
Political Polls
South Carolina Democratic Primary:
Biden 28%
Sanders 20%
Steyer 14%
Buttigieg 8%
Klobuchar 7%
Warren 7%
Bloomberg 6%
Gabbard 1%
East Carolina University 2/12-13
Let me be clear here that Sanders is in far less trouble now than Biden.
But I’ve heard some sources (most namely Pod Save America) speak as though Bernie is the undisputed front runner. With these numbers I just don’t see it. His ceiling will be a problem at some point.
Agreed Scott….
Point…..
Trump maybe fucked up?
But he isn’t stupid …
He perceives Joe Biden as his worst threat , hence the continual Hunter Biden offense…
Trump & Co.
Would GLADLY accept the challenge of running against Bernie Sanders…
Democrat are STILL fighting their Civil War and could conceivably hand Trump a second term with a weak candidate that probably wouldn’t even carry most of his adopted parties vote because he is looked at as too far out the parties mainstream…
We Democrats just could be throwing things away….
THAT IS a worry for a LOT. of us who are over 35 years old…
Nate Silver projection starts this time …
Bernie Super Tuesday states ranked from his best to worst winning chances:
VT 92%
CA 64%
UT 62%
CO 57%
ME 52%
TX 48%
MA 46%
VA 44%
TN 44%
NC 43%
OK 38%
AR 37%
MN 34%
AL 33%
AS* 31%
* American Samoa
(this guess is based on current polling numbers )
If this sticks and Biden gets most of the under 50% er’s?
Biden should be on his way to the nomination…
But the delegates awarding ARE proportional
There is no way anyone could objectively look at and accept these numbers and conclude that Biden could be “on his way to the nomination.”
Jack?
How do u think the geniuses at 538 put together the damn list?
Why on earth, James, would you count all, or even most, of those 50% + non-Sanders states as Biden ones?
Pete Buttingieg, remember, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren and Tom Steyer are still in this race, while Mike Bloomberg, who didn’t contest the first 4 races, will be heavily into Super Tuesday.
Sure, some of those voters (like some Sanders voters) will migrate over to Joe Biden, just as others (including some Biden voters) will migrate over to Sanders or someone else.
But this isn’t 2008 or 2016, where Hillary Clinton was certain to win most of the votes not cast for Obama or Sanders.
And after Amy Klobuchar’s conspicuous rise last Tuesday after a TV debate the previous week (on cable but not over the air), it’s silly to discount the possible effects (whatever they might be) of next Wednesday’s debate on ABC.
If you go over to RCP?
Look at who THEY have averaged in winning the Super Tuesday state contests…
Then remember THIS…
A failure to reach say 15% gets you NO delegates …
Amy, Pete and Tom are NOT gonna get 15% in many states….
The 538 guess takes THAT into account…
I’m of the view that the race WILL come down to THREE guys…
Sanders, Biden and MAYBE Bloomberg…
The race IS about delegates NOT media headlines….
SOOOOO
I’m sticking to MY story….
The people u mention ARE sucking wind money wise ALREADY…
They cannot sustain the national state to state jumping that Bloomberg is ALREADY running and can afford with ease….
Nor are they well known enough like Biden and Sanders…
It IS a numbers game….
Plain and simple…
Biden and Sanders ARE the guys to beat…
And even Bloomberg is IS already behind the eight ball ….
I’m NOT discounting anyone…
I’m just looking at the math….
And I DID give myself wiggle room by says he ‘should’ be on his way….
Amy Klobuchar won 6 out of 24 delegates (& 20% of the vote) in New Hampshire. Bernie Sanders (26%) and Pete Buttigieg (24%) won 9 delegates each
Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden were, like the rest of the field, in the single digits (i.e. <15%) and got none.
understood…
small Non-Diverse states
let’s see what happens starting next Saturday..