Bernie Sanders has a Super Tuesday Southern Black voter problem…Again…

While he eats up the media spotlight right now from ONE win in New Hampshire?

And looks like he’ll split the next two contests with Joe Biden….

Next Tuesday COULD be a day of reckoning for the independent socialist Senator from Vermont…

Super Tuesday will have several states in the South voting , where Black voters will be in the majority and Joe Biden tops the polling with Mike Bloomberg on Biden’s heels…

Two other big states California and Texas have Sanders sharing the lead with Joe Biden ….

The battle between the two will most likely knock all of the others out of the race except for Billionaire Mike Bloomberg ….

With the 15% delegate threshold?

Joe Biden and Mike Bloomberg just could come out WAY ahead of Sanders who might not get much of any delegates in the South…

Last time around Sanders underperformed with black voters against Hillary Clinton…

And?….Lets remember…

Joe Biden WAS Barack Obama’s Vice President…

On Super Tuesday in 2016, six southern states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia) held primary contests. In those states, Sanders won about 31 percent of the popular vote and garnered about 30 percent of the pledged delegates. The national poll average in late February 2016 showed Sanders with support from about 42 percent of Democrats. Sanders not only underperformed his national poll standing by 11 percent, but Hillary Clinton earned nearly 1.5 million more votes than Sanders in these states.

On Super Tuesday 2020, five of the six southern states are again holding their primaries. Georgia has moved to a slightly later date (March 24), but North Carolina has moved up. Although North Carolina was a better state in 2016 for Sanders than was Georgia, he still lost the state by more than 150,000 votes and netted 13 fewer delegates there than Clinton. By swapping out North Carolina for Georgia, his average vote share rises to about 32 percent and his share of delegates nudges up to 34 percent. He still underperformed his national poll standing by 10 percent.

Currently, Sanders’s support is at about 23 percent in the national polls. Were he to perform as poorly in 2020 in the six southern states on Super Tuesday as he did in 2016, he likely would earn between 11 and 13 percent of the popular vote and not earn any delegates from the South.

Assuming that two or three of the more moderate Democratic candidates — former vice president Joe Biden, former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, former South Bend, Ind.,  mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) — split relatively equally what was Clinton’s average vote share in these states (67 percent), each could come away with an impressive stash of delegates…

…

For those looking for an early southern bellwether, keep watch on South Carolina. In 2016, Sanders earned only 26 percent of the vote in the state. If Sanders underperforms his national poll standing by the same 16 percentage points that he did in 2016, he would be fortunate to get into double digits in 2020. Taken together, while Sanders may be looking forward to Nevada’s caucuses on Saturday, it remains hard to imagine him coming away with the plurality of the pledged delegates on Super Tuesday unless he is able to miraculously improve his showing across the South this cycle.

More…

Note…

The above maybe the reason Joe Biden is just cruising along seemingly unworried to much about Bernie Sanders media following and even Mike Bloombergs asention…

A good strong Souther vote Super Tuesday WOULD place Joe Biden in the driver’s seat for the nomination just like Obama and Hillary Clinton….

In the end?

It’s about earning DELEGATES….

image….thehill.com