A LOT of people ain’t gonna like the Real Clear Politics averages….
First of all?
New Hampshire is the first Democratic Presidential primary voting state…
The averages there REMAIN what they where before Iowa….
Sanders
Biden
Buttigieg
Warren
In that order top down….
Pete Buttigieg HAS moved into second place in the last two recent polls though….
All the attention HAS given him a bounce…
But?
The guy DOES have minority voter problem and there ARE a TON more of them in the states after Iowa and New Hampshire…
After New Hampshire comes Nevada...
The polls out of that state are from mid January and they have ….
Biden
Sanders
Warren
Steyer
In that order top down…
After Nevada comes South Carolina….
The polls out of the state are from a week ago….
Biden
Sanders
Steyer
Warren
Buttigieg
In that order top down…
Now we have Pete Buttigieg all over the media duelling with Bernie Sanders for the Iowa boasting rights, which BOTH camps are actually pitching….
We also have the pundits running at the mouth about how the Biden campaign is DOA and NOBODY is saying a thing about Elizabeth Warren….
None of these early polling average have Mike Bloomberg doing a thing…
But pundits have him shined up and ready to jump on Joe Biden’s political grave….
Now some might knock this ole’ dog for looking at the polling averages….
But?
There seem’s to be a disconnect with the reality of the Democratic nomination race…
Or?
Does the state polling have EVERYTHING DRASTICALLY wrong?
image..NYPost.Com
Not wrong necessarily.
Polls are nothing but a snapshot in time and can be quickly overtaken by events.
I would suggest that the polls you cite, some three weeks old or even from last week ,may look drastically different today.
Most people are likely just now paying much attention to the race.and they are just forming their opinion of it.Will they be effected by the results out of Iowa?
Sure some will ,and that is good news for Pete and Bernie and maybe not so good for Liz and Joe.
I agree Jack…
But nevertheless?
They ARE a benchmark that the pundits have conveniently forgotten….
Or simply overlooking….
The ideas that Biden was going to win Iowa was simply NOT sound judgment ….
Same with Pete acing large minority states….
I could be wrong…
But the Democratic race will actually begin AFTER this coming Tuesday ….
But as usual….
Yes….
Iowa… For all its irrelevance?
WILL narrow the field
When I was a kid and played video games, if I got off to a bad start, I would always just shut the game off and restart. I kept telling myself, “now, this one counts.” Often, this would take hours.
Joe Biden will probably drop rot 3rd in NH….
Chris Cillizza Retweeted
Michael Del Moro
@MikeDelMoro
NEW Monmouth New Hampshire poll:
Sanders 24%
Buttigieg 20%
Biden 17%
Warren 13%
Klobuchar 9%
I’m more optimistic….
His fire wall HAS to be Nevada AND South Carolina…
The media is mad crazy to write him off….
No they’re not.
You and Trump,always blaming the “media.”
Look it’s a legitimate story.
The guy ,who a month or so ago was considered the Overwhelming favorite ,is losing his momentum apparently.
And if he comes in third or fourth in New Hampshire, your optimism aside?
He’s in deep trouble.
He could even lose S.C.If that happens?
He’s finished.
The “media” has nothing to do with it.
I’m disagreeing with ya Jack…
For sure Biden has run lousy up to now….
But he’s paying for NOT playing rtf them in the beginning….
Again…
His poll numbers in the states AFTER Iowa and NH ARE Good…
But he has been written negative from the jump…
We’ll see how it plays…
Well then if you believe that?
Such is Bidens fault, not the media’s.
I DID say Joe Biden HAS made mistakes…
james apparently continues to think that polls from other states are of people who are not at all paying attention to what is going on elsewhere and will not remotely be swayed by what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire.
I’ve heard of juror sequestration but voter sequestration?
Right now, Biden is going very negative on both Sanders and Buttigieg. He has no other choice. Frankly, he has to take out Buttigieg before he even worries about Sanders. And then if he somehow manages to take out Buttigieg, then he has to worry about Bloomberg.
Joe Biden’s happiest day will be the day he suspends his candidacy, likely before this month is over. The relief on his face will be visible.
My happiest day will be this summer when in Milwaukee after a 8th ballot, Democrats throw their hands up in the air and just decide to nominate Mitt Romney, who surely could defeat Donald Trump on on one.
(one can dream, can’t they?)
He, he, he….
Romney!
No….
But the Bloomberg people HAVE to be smiling…
Joe Biden needs time….
And he DOES need to garner media attention like everyone ELSE….
time is running out and so is his money.
I wanted him to do well in Iowa. There is no doubt that in theory, he would be stronger against Trump than some others (albeit with some fundamental weaknesses.)
I just never bought into him as a strong primary candidate and I have said that from the get-go.
Had Hillary been convinced or forced to drop out in 2016, Biden would be President today. In life, windows only open very briefly at times.
Biden doesn’t have money problems…
He’s probably gonna come in 3rd in NH…
Better than Iowa…
He NEEDS Nevada to get him to SC….
I SERIOUSLY DO NOT THINK Buttigieg does good past Tuesday….
It then turns to Biden/Samders…
Remember people…
Biden has been counted out more time’s then the Chief’s were against 49’s and the Chiefs WON….
Buttigieg bounce….This would be the 4 poll in the last few days…Sanders has from up +10 to +1 on Pete in a race for 1st and 2nd….Biden seems to have slipped from 3rd to 4th…Warren and Biden seem to be in a race for 3rd
A new Boston Globe/WBZ-TV/Suffolk University poll in New Hampshire finds Bernie Sanders leading the Democratic primary with 24%, followed closely by Pete Buttigieg at 23%, Elizabeth Warren at 13% and Joe Biden at 11%.
Politicalwire…
yeah, the vaunted “5-4-3-2-1” plan. I was hoping something like that would work for Jeb Bush last time but I knew better.
Unlike the Chiefs, Biden has never won a contest outside of Delaware.
True THAT CG….
How convenient for you to now say that that “Biden was going to win Iowa was simply NOT sound judgment”, while at the same time you were claiming that “Biden appears to be pulling away in Iowa”.
Like it or not, the race has already started. The only reason you say that “the Democratic race will actually begin AFTER this coming Tuesday” is because you suspect that Biden will lose again “this coming Tuesday”.
Biden is still in the race, but so is Mayor Pete, Bernie, Elizabeth and Mike. I think that finishing in 5th place behind Biden has essentially killed Amy’ chances. Hard to imagine she would do better in New Hampshire.