As I do this piece we still do Not have the final totals from the Iowa caucus…
Just 71%….
We know that Pete Buttigieg maintains his narrow lead in the popular vote and therefore has the most delegates….
Bernie Sanders comes in second, Elizabeth Warren third, Joe Biden fourth and Amy Klobuchar fifth…
The media story was Biden ‘had’ to win…
THAT was unrealistic ….
The media story also was Bernie Sanders was peaking….
THAT apparently ran out in Iowa…
The real thing here is delegates…
Iowa only has 41 out of more than 2,000 in the whole contest….
New Hampshire comes next in 5 days (The media has forgotten Iowa already)….
Bernie should win …
The race will be for second between Buttigieg and Biden…
Then the REAL race begins with more diverse and larger states …
Oh, and?
A LOT of questions again on WTF is Iowa the first state for Democrats?
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The Democratic presidential candidates are beginning the day in a state of political uncertainty, with no winner declared in Iowa and no clear sense of when that might happen.
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The Iowa Democratic Party released a new set of partial caucus results late Tuesday night, but it didn’t change much from the first wave of numbers it put out earlier in the day. With 71 percent of precincts in, Pete Buttigieg still held a narrow lead over Bernie Sanders. Elizabeth Warren was in third, and Joseph R. Biden Jr. was in a distant fourth.
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It is not clear when the rest of the caucus results will be released, or if the full results would alter the current standings of the candidates. The precincts counted so far are relatively representative of the state, but the margin between Mr. Buttigieg and Mr. Sanders is unusually slim. The Associated Press says the race is still too early to call.
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With Iowa out of their control, the candidates are campaigning today in New Hampshire, which holds its primary next Tuesday. Several candidates are also scheduled to appear in CNN town hall events tonight and Thursday night, ahead of the next debate on Friday night….
What we got out of Iowa, really, was a tie. Sanders and Buttigieg will move forward with about the same number of delegates from the first contest of the Democratic primary season. We did learn that former vice president Joe Biden’s campaign is shakier than it might have seemed, a useful bit of information that may not simply be a function of Iowa’s odd process. But what we didn’t really get is any candidate lurching forward significantly on the path toward the nomination.
That’s because it’s Iowa, which is always a much smaller part of the nominating calculus than its reputation would suggest.
Consider how the eventual delegate totals for the leading Democratic presidential contenders in 2008 and 2016 broke out….
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California is the largest for each candidate, but other states vary. Illinois was a larger part of Barack Obama’s total in 2008 than it was Hillary Clinton’s that year. New York was bigger for Clinton in 2016 than it was for Sanders. And so on.
If you keep your eye on Iowa, though, you see that it’s never a very big circle. Generally speaking, it’s about 1 percent of the delegates that candidates end up earning. Obama earned 6.6 delegates in California for every one in Iowa in 2008. Clinton earned 11.7 California delegates for every one in Iowa eight years later when she and Sanders similarly tied in the Hawkeye State….
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The Iowa Democratic Party’s struggles in unveiling the results of the caucuses will linger until 2024, certainly. But the actual winners of the contest, however you evaluate them, will probably end up not mattering that much by the time the nomination is wrapped up….
image…Anthony Lanzilote/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Sanders still leads the popular vote in IA with 71% reporting, but that is pretty irrelevant.
He may have won it last time too, but it was never reported. They only used to report who has the most delegates (actually delegates to pick delegates) and that is Buttigieg.
Yup CG….
DELEGATES….
The REAL race begins AFTER New Hanpshire…
In the end?
Iowa IS a media creation….
A media creation that has produced every Democrat nominee for President this Millennium.
The old Iowa isn’t there anymore …
The state voted for Trump last time….
So all those past Democrat caucus goers became Trump supporters?
If so, Democrats have worse problems then they realize.
Republicans seemed to care about their Caucuses there, and the influence of their voters in Iowa, even as a rare state that voted for Dukakis.
Yes – Iowa is important because candidates that do poorly there might not get another chance elsewhere. It’s not the media that overplays the importance of the Iowa vote. It is the voters who vote after Iowa that overplay the importance of the Iowa vote.
Nate Cohen
Buttigieg lead expands to 44 SDEs with 85% reporting, up from 28% in the last update
AP Politics
@AP_Politics
Pete Buttigieg clings to a slight lead over Bernie Sanders in a new batch of vote totals released by the Iowa Democratic Party. The race remains too early to call with 96% of precincts reporting.
Buttigieg gets a bounce in the 536 tracking poll…
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Buttigieg has gained 9 points in 2 days in a 3-day tracking poll. That is a pretty serious bounce in NH. https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1225267874677178368
Ok…
Right now the political media is playing the Buttigieg vs Sanders show…..
That’s too early, but then didn’t you write frequent posts that it was between Biden and Sanders?
And about two weeks ago, you wrote that Biden was running away with Iowa – even though he did not get 1 in 6 votes.
Sure DID….
I STILL think the same…
We’ll see how Pete does once he run’s in a state with more than 1 to 3 million people and more than 4% minority….
With 97% of caucuses reporting:
State Delegate Equivalents:
26.2% BUTTIGIEG
26.1% SANDERS
18.2% WARREN
15.8% BIDEN
12.2% KLOBUCHAR
1.0% YANG
0.3% STEYER
First & Final Rounds of Popular Vote:
42,672 24.9% 44,753 26.8% SANDERS
36,718 21.4% 42,235 25.3% BUTTIGIEG
32,007 18.7% 34,312 20.5% WARREN
25,699 15.0% 23,051 13.8% BIDEN
21,896 12.8% 20,525 12.3% KLOBUCHAR
8,660 5.1% 1,752 1.0% YANG
3,001 1.8% _,407 0.2% STEYER
326 0.2% 20 0.0% GABBARD
214 0.1% 15 0.0% BLOOMBERG
146 0.1% 1 0.0% BENNET
49 0.0% 0 0.0% PATRICK
171,388 100.0% 167,071 100.0% TOTAL
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa
The political knife fight continues ….
Bernie Sanders declares a ‘Victory’ in Iowa….
The count is full of holes….
This IS some much like Trump….
Reminder….
Sanders campaign got Iowa two do this on the first call…instead the way they did this in the past
While I think there is little chance of it,there is always talk of a contested convention(mistakenly referred to as a”brokered” convention).
If one comes to pass however, there is little doubt that the first big deal at that convention will be a credentials fight over the Iowa delegation!
The last real big Credentials fight I remember was over the South Carolina delegation at the 1972 Democratic Convention.
No actual Iowa delegates will be selected until the state convention later this year. Monday night was about picking people for the County Conventions who then go on to the state convention. The Iowa Caucus was always more of a symbolic “beauty contest” than anything else.
The new wrinkle is that apparently the Iowa Democrats publicly published their reporting hotline (dumb) and then unethical Trump supporters jammed the lines and helped create this chaos. (and if the roles reversed the exact same thing would have happened)
Since South Carolina is not having a Republican primary at all, there are very much organized efforts down there for Trump supporters to go vote for Bernie Sanders. Incumbency has many under the radar perks in Presidential elections.
GREAT POINT CG!….
Sanders move was predicted …
He JUST wants rot be able to0 DECLARE a win so the media wave forms….
For the tenth time….
Sanders & Co. seem to be flowing the established Trump playbook….
Joe Biden is playing by the old norm….
The DNC will try to help Joe, fearing a Trump like Sanders takeover of the party….
THE DEMOCRATIC CIVIL WAR IS RUNNING IN EARNEST….
Breaking….
Yang campaign slimming down….
This follows Warren’s cutting back some spending….
And Sanders fundraisng gains….
He, he, he…
Now Buttigieg one ups Bernie and declares a lead in Iowa….
The Democrats look like amateurs ….
Oh that doesn’t matter.
The essence of the challenge in 1972 was that the county conventions that selected delegates to the State convention(where I a youthful 21yoa was a delegate) that selected the delegates to the national convention didn’t follow party guidelines.
Hell in 1964 a Black Republican in Tennessee launched a challenge based on being discriminated against on the local level.
Since contested conventions have gone by the wayside most people don’t remember those old fights.
In a contested convention every vote counts.
With this screwup?For sure there would be a challenge and it would be a doozy.
One of my co-workers, whom I know of as a liberal, just came to tell me he took one of those surveys and found himself like at 94% agreement with Buttigieg, whom he didn’t know much about, but now seems to be leaning that way.
I think I took one of those surveys a while back and my closest match was Bloomberg with like 30% or something. Yippie!
Liberal = Buttigieg????
REALLY?
Pete as a cross over candidate?
Buttigieg’s positions are very liberal. Well to the left of Obama. He just speaks in more moderate, less strident tones, and makes an effort to appeal to people in the middle.
Actually?
SO ARE BIDEN’s
Biden is moving to the left of Obama for sure, and yes, he seems to try to appeal to people in the middle, or people who voted for Trump.
But as a politician, Buttigieg is better (almost too good maybe). He has studied what Obama did very well, (though he won’t quite get all the way up there the way Obama would rhetorically in terms of tone, cadence, etc) and he comes across as more earnest and less arrogant than Obama sometimes did.
SC used to have the caucus method of choosing delegates.
I attended caucus delegate selections in 1972 ,1976 and 1980.
The national media paid little attention to them.
In 1972 our precinct attendance was around 20 or so.The rules required that at least 10% of the delegates elected to the county convention had to be a “youth”(defined then as someone under 25yoa).We were allowed 10 delegates.I was the only one under 25 present.It was a tough race but….
Then at the county convention,I, being a reliable stooge for the old establishment (not one of those wild eyed McGovernites) was selected to be a delegate to the State convention.
Those were the days!
What are your thoughts about right-wingers coming into the D primary this year? Not because they want a Democrat to be President or even to ensure the least objectionable one wins, but because they want to make sure Sanders gets closer to the nomination. Are people talking about this there?
Online currently, you seem Trump fans are very upset that Buttigieg is being portrayed as the winner in Iowa and they think it should be Sanders and that the DNC and media are in cahoots against Sanders. They *really* want to run against Sanders.
Yes it’s been in all the papers .
It seems to be mostly concentrated in the upstate and has much to do with a simmering statewide issue of closed primaries.
Currently,in S.C. there is no registration by party .Some Republicans ,usually the very conservative ones ,often claim that when their candidate doesn’t win it’s because a bunch of Democrats voted.
In their press conference the supporters of Republicans voting in theDemocratic primary asserted that ,besides helping Sanders, who they regard as the weakest candidate, they hope Democrats, angered by all this,will join them in supporting registration by party and closed primaries, a position at odds with the Republican leadership here.
and then the 1972 saga ends with you voting for Nixon! : )
You weren’t the only one..
Yeah I was part of the ABM movement(Anybody But McGovern).
We all ended up supporting Sen. Henry M “Scoop” Jackson who I think would have made a good President.
Interestingly Jackson’s candidacy became the incubator for the later NeoCon movement in the Republican Party that included such former Jackson supporters as Irving Kristol(Bills dad), Jeanne Kirkpatrick , who became UN Ambassador under Reagan and Charles Krauthammer ,noted writer and FoxNews commentator.
For all those interested ,I will vote for Biden in the S.C. Primary.
Bloomberg is not on the ballot.
If he was ,I would probably vote for him.
Will Biden still be viable? At the minimum it will be do or die there.
After my first choice dropped out in 2016, I intended vote for Rubio in my primary and for a few days was quite optimistic about his campaign. By the time we actually voted though, the strategic thing to do was to vote for Kasich.
what percent of Iowa’s population does the caucus for Dem’s?
i wonder?