Just a reminder ….
Those Democrats that have BIG support from younger voters talking to pollsters general have a fall off in the actually number of people who come and vote for them….
That will also matter in this November’s election…
The youth vote in the United States is the cohort of 18- to 24-year-olds as a voting demographic.[1] Many policy areas specifically affect the youth of the United States, such as education issues and the juvenile justice system.[2] The general trend in voter turnout for American elections has been decreasing for all age groups, but “young people’s participation has taken the biggest nosedive”.[3] This low youth turnout is part of the generational trend of voting activity. Young people have the lowest turnout, though as the individual ages, turnout increases to a peak at the age of 50 and then falls again.[4] Ever since 18-year-olds were given the right to vote in 1972, youth have been under represented at the polls…
…
Fewer than half of American citizens aged 18 to 29 voted in the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections, and only one in five voted in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections. Even in “up” years, such as the 2018 midterm cycle, the number of young people who did not vote greatly exceeded those who did…
…
The 2018 midterms showed a fairly large increase in youth voting, but even then, seven in 10 young people did not vote in that election. Before that, there was a spike in 2008, the first time that Barack Obama ran. By the next election, that spike had disappeared. That fits with a general historical pattern of small blips followed by a return to voting rates 30% to 40% lower than older citizens.
It remains to be seen how the 2018 spike translates to the 2020 elections, but we do know that, so far, this problem has not gone away over time….
image…politicsnc.com
New Open Thread is HERE….
Bernie Sanders
@BernieSanders
If young people come out and vote in high numbers, we can fundamentally transform this country.
Oh, Shit…..
State Dept is oking ALL of people to leave China
More to come
My nephew is currently working in Shanghai and living there with his family. Obviously my family is concerned.
I know of another young family living over there that I hope they are ok…
Morning people…
Come over to the new thread on the general stuff….
Thank You….
Sidebar updated…
Summary….
3 days till Iowa….
Sanders up 3% over Biden in average for Iowa…
Biden gets a slight gain against Trump in national poll…
Sanders a slight gain in Biden in national Dem’s…
Bloomberg in 4th place in Dem nationals…
Klobuchar slight gain in national…
Trump down slightly in approval with more polls cancelling out the Ras pol’s too high numbers for Trump..
Marco Rubio says impeachable actions don’t mean a President should be removed.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/480912-rubio-impeachable-actions-dont-necessarily-mean-a-president-should-be-removed
He also said Trump’s removal would be seen as a victory for Vladimir Putin
Uh. OK.
Mike Pence ought to have low self-esteem.
For a lot of reasons yes
“Yes, he shot someone on Fifth Avenue, but does that mean Barron should be separated from his White House home tutor before the school year ends? Let the voters decide.”
Trump tried to Get Russia to interfere in our elcctions. After that was discovered, he then tried to get Ukraine to interfere in our elections. It is not clear if Trump held other meetings with other foreign leaders to request similar opportunities for interference. But putting our democracy at risk should not be impeachable. Maybe if he is acquitted this time he will learn his lesson. The voters should be the ones to decide whether Trump should be re-elected, even if there is no reason to believe that the election has to be fair. If Trump wins again with the help of a foreign power, maybe the Republicans will vote to impeach.
Why would (for example) anyone imagine that Trump would make a favorable trade with China for their help in ensuring his victory?
You make a good point Z against Jack’s ‘don’t bother”…
This has and IS about NOY. letting Trump do his ‘own thing’ and having his scared party members cover him…
All of this makes CG so angry, that he might not even vote for President – although he will still support the candidates who support the corruption cover-up.
That doesn’t make sense. Which candidates? I don’t have any Republicans that represent me and I am certainly not giving money or otherwise “supporting” others. I might possibly donate to Susan Collins if she votes to convict. My U.S. Congressman should have been one of the House Managers. He would have been more effective than some of the ones chosen. I am open to voting for him in November.
No – but almost certainly one of those candidates will eventually run for President and I find it hard to believe you wouldn’t support that person over a Democrat.
I seriously doubt Collins will vote to convict. Mitt maybe but maybe not.
I’m gonna bet neither Collins of Romeny vote to convict Trump….
I suspect you will make a similar argument such as “My vote in Illinois wouldn’t change things”.
While I know you don’t share my perspectives of things, you should understand that I truly believe you have an incredible ability to justify what you want to believe. And it wouldn’t hurt you to at least consider that I might have some legitimate reasons to believe that.
If you such a sage, please explain how my vote in Illinois would matter.
1. Illinois ends in a complete tie, among millions of total votes, because I voted for neither Trump nor the Democrat
2. Despite the fact that Illinois ended in an exact tie, Donald Trump did not already win a 40 state plus landslide.
3. The state run for decades by Michael Madigan is unable to somehow deliver a completely tied election to the Democrat
Show me your math.
Our votes won’t matter in almost any election. Although I have been voting for many decades, I have yet to vote in ANY election that was decided by 2 or fewer votes.
We knowingly take an hour out of our busy day to vote – even though it is virtually certain that our vote doesn’t matter.
But you already know this. Of course your vote doesn’t matter. Would not voting for the Socialists out of principle in the election that Hitler won been the right thing to do?
Ideally, we vote for someone we want to be in office that we feel good about.
Sometimes we don’t have that luxury and vote strategically.
Other times, there is a bridge too far. One can still exercise the right to vote and bypass those who are expected to finish 1st and 2nd.
It has to be accepted that I am a person who simply would be able to live with myself if I voted for these Democrats to be President. There are things that actually matter to me. (I said my intention would be to reluctantly vote for Bloomberg if he is nominated) I want Trump to lose and one of these Democrats may become President and as an American I will wish them all the success in the world in the overall duties of performing the office, but it is going to have to be without my vote. As a “loyal American” I will be opposing their agenda on Day 1.
This is America not Germany and there were other choices back then too. But no, a hypothetical between “Stalin and Hitler” does not make it right to vote for Stalin. A dictator is a dictator and a murderer is a murderer.
I have no reason to believe that there were Stalinists in Germany before Hitlers rise, although your knowledge of history may be better than mine. The Communists pre-Hitler Germany were disproportionately naive idealists. We can only guess how a German Communist Party would have worked out, but I’m pretty sure it would have been a substantial improvement over Hitler. During college I attended Communist rallies in NYC – not because i agreed with the philosophy, but because I thought it was the best way to understand it. In my opinion every person at that rally was an idealist – even if every one of them was also naive.
“Ideally, we vote for someone we want to be in office that we feel good about.”
And in an ideal world this piece of shit wouldn’t be President.
After a week when Trump’s Party has joined him in obstruction of justice (the cover up of his crimes). An act that will only embolden him in the coming election to break more laws. Why would anyone have a second thought about casting a vote to remove the Mango Mussolini from office?
All the ridiculous excuses have been written and they amount to so much blah, blah.
The Constitution has been perverted and all the Republicans can say is, “well he did it, but it wasn’t really that bad.” Well, it really was, and it is going to get a lot worse. There are no brakes on this guy any more, and his staff is either too afraid, too incompetent, or too supportive to stop him.
If he’s re-elected our government as we know it will come to an end. Everything will be a business transaction.
These are facts, and anyone who is still thinking of throwing their vote away should be ashamed.
Morning People….
Mitt Romney has been disonvitrd from CPAC for failing to fall in line with the Trump Cult aka Republican Party.
Conservatism is as big a sham as this “trial” was.
So if I have to ask. If the party of Lincoln and Reagan and the conservative movement is completely capitulating to Donald Trump how blind do you have to be to see that the only way to effectively send a message is to hold your nose and vote for the Democratic nominee.–No matter who he or she is?
Romney its the prime example of why GOPer lawmakers are AFRAID of crossing Donald Trump even if they KMNOW he’s is a lying crooked bully….
Yet somehow you sympathize with them.
Constantly regaling us with the totally irrelevant “they don’t like him” garbage.
Who cares about that and what does that have to do with anything?
They vote with him ,they do his bidding, and we are supposed to somehow sympathize with their plight of not “liking” him.
Jack?
Republican lawmakers DO NOIT ‘Like’ Donald Trump anymore than a bad cold….
They are frank in saying that….
Most asked in the last 48 hours if Trump did something wrong will admit so…
Most asked off the record tell reporters they are scared for their personal and political lives of Trump himself and his supporters/followers….
You ARE correct in pointing out that it’s ‘his’ party…
But ?
Except for the true believers , who where ALWAYS there?….I doubt very much that most GOPer lawmakers would say in private that they ‘like’ the guy…
Once again you ignore the issue .
If they are voting with him ,supporting him , and doing his bidding?
Who gives a damn if they “like him?
Your obsession with this non issue shows nothing more that your affinity with dealing with useless minutiae in lieu of the real issue.
Your lack of grey views are showing again Jack….
leading by fear ALWAYS should leave a doubt in the leader about his people’s ‘loyalty’?….
Your naievete is showing again.
I mean good God after almost four years and hundreds of opportunities to seperate themselves in some manner from this garbage heap ,the latest just yesterday, you are still waiting to see an ounce of courage from this group?
Take that “greys” idiocy and shove it.
Massive defeat will be the only way for Republican s to “wake up”.
Yesterday showed that loud and clear.
Polling for Iowa still is to close to call…
Biden and Sanders have leads in different polls….
Nationally Biden still ahead…
Sanders a good sized lead in NH….
Iowa will come down to who shows up…
And if no first ballot win?
Alliances….
Former presidential candidate Beto ORourke praised Michael Bloomberg according to PoliticalWire.
Another indication that, despite the polls ,lots of establishment Democrats remain leery of Joe Biden’s ability to secure the nomination.
They are keeping the option of coalescing behind the former Mayor in the event of a Biden collapse.
And dreaming of the guys $$$$$?
If Bloomberg wants to spend billions of his fortune to rid this country of the scourge of this idiot Trump?
Count me all in.
You see lots of us are concentrating on something important rather than the tender feelings of the moral cowards that make up the Republican congressional caucuses.
I have NO problem with Money Mike helping the Democrats retake the White House….
NOPE…
Could have fooled me.
All you do is make snide remarks about him.
Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D- TX) praised Michael Bloomberg in the Los Angeles Times:
“I like that he is here. I strongly believe we have a chance to deliver the state’s 38 electoral college votes to the Democratic nominee. But it won’t happen of its own accord. It’s going to take a massive level of organizing and a significant investment. … The fact that he’s willing to do that bodes very, very well for the state, and may bode well for his candidacy.”
Politicalwire…
Breaking….
One of the last “good” Iowa polls from the Des Moines Register is being embargoed due to Buttigieg being excluded some way in the questioning….
The twitter universe has gone bat-shit crazy over this?
THAT IS CRAZY!
It’s just a damn poll!
Morning All….
Remember James’s headline a few weeks ago?
Joe Biden owns S.C.?
That was then this is now.The latest Charleston Post- Courier Poll has Biden still in the lead but with a substantially reduced margin.He now polls at only 25% while Bernie Sanders is at 20%.In third place?Tom Steyer who is all over tv here at 18%.
I have ,through the years, tried to explain to James that early polls are basically useless and are nothing but name recognition and that earlier contests (Iowa and New Hampshire ) can effect later contests(SC).He refuses to listen and has essentially declared Biden the nominee based on those polls.
Biden still is the leading candidate for the nomination ,in my view ,but he doesn’t “own” anything .
He certainly doesn’t Jack, and Iowa could knock him off his stride.
I saw the piece ….
The headline pushes the Steyer gains there…
DO YOU think Joe Biden will lose in South Carolina Jack?
Last Iowa poll?
The final Emerson College/7 News Iowa poll finds Bernie Sanders with a solid lead going into Monday’s caucus with 28%, followed by Joe Biden follows with 21%, Pete Buttigieg at 15%, Elizabeth Warren at 14%, and Amy Klobuchar at 11%….
Politicalwire…
Trump Campaign Promotes Bernie’s Rise
Jonathan Swan: “Bernie Sanders has surged to the front of the polls ahead of Monday’s Iowa caucuses. And some of Trump’s political advisers say they are doing their best to help him stay there.”
Said a Trump adviser: “We’re trying to promote the rise. The campaign has been pumping up the national messaging behind Bernie, pushing out fundraising emails. When you attack his policies, it gets the media to talk about him.”
“The adviser said that highlighting Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, helps Trump put the whole field of Democrats under a socialist umbrella.”
Voting FOR Bernie Sanders is a vote FOR Donald Trump’s re-election?
Spoke to my youngest son tonight who agreed with the above….
He agreed that Joe Biden might not be perfect….
But we agree Bernie is closer to Trump than ANY Democrat and he’s up for our vote….
Morning …..,
Well…Well….
Joe Biden has crossed Lindsey Graham off his friend list according Politicalwire
Morning Consult
NEW early-state tracking (IA, NH, NV and SC):
Biden: 23% (-3)
Sanders: 20%
Steyer: 19% (+2)
Warren: 12% (+1)
Buttigieg: 9% (-1)
Bloomberg: 4% (+2)
Klobuchar: 4% (+2)
Yang: 4% (-4)
MoE = +/- 4
Morning Consult
NEW NATIONAL 2020 POLL:
Biden: 28% (-1)
Sanders: 24% (+1)
Bloomberg: 14% (+2)
Warren: 14%
Buttigieg: 6% (-1)
Yang: 4% (-1)
Klobuchar: 3%
Steyer: 3%
Gabbard: 2% (+1)
Based on ~15K surveys w/ Democratic primary voters; MoE=+/- 1.
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Conservative radio host and Republican kingmaker Rush Limbaugh said he’s been diagnosed with advanced lung cancer…..
AP…
if The primary were held today?Yes.
It’s not held today, but four weeks from yesterday after Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.
So much could happen that I’m not prepared to hazard a guess as to the result then.
Polling Sidebar updated….
No real changes…
Rush Limbaugh announced today that he has advanced lung cancer.
Hopefully, treatment can be successful.
Was just about to post what Jack did.
Bloomberg at 14% is the best poll I have seen for him. Not sure I believe it. He still appears to be moving up in the polls – even if it is very slow.
Bloomberg’s continuing rise in the polls ,along with Bidens slow ,yet continuing decline, indicates to me that serious doubts as to Biden as the candidate to beat Trump ,which of course is his main selling point, is starting to take hold among a significant number of establishment Democrats.
For Bloomberg, it might relate more immediately to doubts Biden can beat Sanders.
I don’t want to try to think too many steps ahead, so if I am rooting for winners tonight, I am rooting for the Joes.. Biden and Walsh.
Are they even going to hold Republican caucuses?
Yes. I bet one airs on CSPAN 2.
CSPAN 1 always airs a “bigger deal” Caucus.
The Republicans just have a simple straw vote though.
Do you have aNy hope that Walsh can pick up a delegate?
I don’t know what the allocation process is and what qualifies. From what I remember what is chosen tonight are delegates to the county conventions which then pick delegates to the state convention which then picks the delegates to the national convention.
There will be anti-Trump Republican votes. Maybe the party bosses will channel their inner North Koreans or Cubans and try not to count them. If so, that would generate a lot of free media for Walsh to yell about it,
The Post/Courier Poll in SC which showed Biden only 5 points ahead of Sanders in S.C. is causing considerable consternation among Biden supporters here.
Most expected a decline from his overwhelming support as late as November ,but most thought he was comfortably ahead.
With almost a month to go before the primary and indications that Bidens solid Black support may be cracking ,particularly in urban areas , what was assumed to be a cakewalk is quickly being viewed as a possible catastrophe.
Biden and Sanders will probably be fighting over who might have offered the most praise for George Wallace in the ’70s. That already kind of started last week.
Buttigieg was seemingly on every Sunday show yesterday and he has an incredible political talent for staying on message. He might almost even be “too good” which leads people to hold him in suspicion.
I don’t believe Sanders praised Wallace in the 70s – unless it was over something minor and you are taking it out of context. Sanders was a fierce desegregation supporter at the time.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/bernie-sanders-praised-george-wallace-as-sensitive-in-1972
I don’t see Sander’s comment as prsise
I wouldn’t be the one taking it out of context, it would be the Biden campaign. Desperate times could lead to desperate measures. There is a ton from Sanders past though that he will find hard to explain away.
And apparently, Biden said he was willing to support Ford over Wallace in a general election for President, but apparently not Reagan over Wallace.
Who cares?
About a bazillion woke leftists on Twitter I am guessing.
You mean you think “leftists” who are supporting Bernie would care about that quote you cited?
Hahaha!
That’s funny.
That’s like thinking a Trumpite would be embarrassed by the stable genius’s relocation of the Kansas City Chiefs to Kansas last night.
They will laugh it off as along time ago and it was a scant almost half a century ago.
You don’t know how these kids are. You are far removed. Heck, you aren’t even a Democrat anymore!
The AP is reporting that Sanders has also won among Iowans living in Scotland.
Oh and you know all about these “leftists?”
Yeah perusing a bevy of Right Wing political sites sure gives one that uh “perspective.”
No I just support Democrats and the principles of the Democratic Party.
You know like you do the Republicans.With you of course this is a day to day event.
You seriously think they aren’t there on Twitter calling Biden a racist and every name in the book?
To be fair, they are much harsher on Hillary.
It’s a legitimate question to ask how Biden will fight back against Sanders in SC, if Sanders is coming off back to back wins and Biden is in desperation mode.
Well quoting some innocuous qou
Well quoting some innocuous quotation about George Wallace from nearly fifty years ago isn’t going to change many minds.
one poll Jack….
Need confirmation….
Iowa has several Sanders ahead…
Only one or two with Biden leading and one poll just out with Buttigieg leading…
The actual event is less than 4 hours away..
We need more polls from SC….
And like any race…
The leader comes down to earth as the vote approaches
That’s true.
It’s good to see you acknowledge that.
A couple of weeks ago you told us the race would be over in early March.
You still believe that?
Probably….
Yes…..
Biden gets NEV, SC, TEX and Ca
For sure….
I certainly wouldn’t say “for sure.”
He has a “chance” to do that but those chances are closing fairly rapidly.
I see this as a fight which will drag on for quite awhile.
Most recent poll out of CA shows Biden well behind Sanders.
The most recent CA poll was Sanders 30, Warren 16, Biden 15.
Apparently, Sanders could win every delegate with a margin like that. (not exactly sure the format there.)
Bernie IS peaking….
Let’s see if the vote is actually there….
No I never hear anyone mention George Wallace.
Unless and until Buttigieg can substantially improve his standing with Black voters,His already slim chances of emerging the nominee become almost non existent.
Back in DC, it’s looking now like Joe Manchin is planning to vote “no” on removal and introduce a Censure resolution instead. I would think that Doug Jones might join in with that.
Conservatives seem to think Sinema from AZ will also vote no on removal, but I would be surprised.
If this is the BEST Democrats can do ?
Republicans are gonna sail thru for another 5 years….
This IS a warning to the Democratic Party….
They need to stop fucking around and get SERIOUS…
Actress Shannon Doherty reveals she has Stage 4 Breast Cancer.
Very sad news (and a bad week for those who attended the 1992 GOP Convention)
Yes indeed on the actress…
Susan Collins has announced she will vote to acquit Trump.
No word yet from Romney.
It’s all on Mitt to make history. I hope he does the right thing, but it is a ton to ask.
The outcome is not in doubt. It looks like at least two Democrats are leaning towards Acquittal. The people of his state (while not as big of a Trump loving state as would otherwise be the case) definitely are in favor of acquittal. He is going to face a backlash like perhaps no Senator has ever seen if he votes guilty and if he does so, will get very little credit from the left in the process.
Of course no decent person would wish anything bad to someone who just announced they had cancer, but I was somewhat amazed to see the overwhelmingly gracious and heartfelt Tweet that Romney sent out about Rush Limbaugh yesterday.
After all the horrible things Rush has been saying about Romney for years now too.
Limbaugh knows that smoking causes lung cancer. In life, if you make foolish decisions, you are likely to suffer the consequences.
Unlike CG, I am more likely to feel sorry for someone who never had a chance because they grew up poor in a neighborhood with poor schools and they couldn’t afford to go to college, or even had the time because they had to work two jobs just to make ends meet. I don’t recall CG ever feeling sympathy for these people. These people deserve our sympathy. Not someone like Limbaugh who lived a privileged life, but suffered consequences because of his foolish choices – whether it is his smoking, fondness for opioids, or unwillingness to control his extreme obesity.
While I am not “glad” Limbaugh got cancer, I especially don’t have much sympathy for someone who deliberately distorts facts to try to advance their personal interests. Sorry if this sounds cruel to some, but it is how I feel.
Yes, you know me. No sympathy for anyone. I am cruel and “evil.”
And where did I even say I had “sympathy” for Limbaugh? I said “hopefully treatment will be successful.” In another blog I antagonized people by saying that I hope he would be as successful in fighting and beating cancer as Ruth Bader Ginsburg has been.
But Zreebs (who has claimed for years that he wants to eat with me) thinks I am without sympathy for humanity. Oh well. I guess I will regret that when I am burning in eternity for my callousness.
I said everything I wish to say already about Limbaugh facing cancer. Nothing.
Yes – Let me know when you are ready to get together for lunch sometime, and we’ll hook up next time I’m in the Chicago metro area. As previously mentioned, I promise to be on my best behavior.
With that said, it would be best if we don’t discuss each other’s character – or we won’t have an enjoyable time. Look, you have accused me of things that I don’t think are fair. You accuse me of being a liar, and you attacked my character for not joining in the GOP’s partisan attacks on Ford’s character. I can get over this though.
I don’t believe in hell, and I don’t think you need to worry about burning in hell. But deep down, I do not think that you really care about the poor, or racial injustice, or the increasingly lack of upward mobility in our economy, or the future of the planct. I could continue, but I’ll stop there. If you do, it is not obvious when I read your posts.
If you want to explain why I am wrong, then I will read what you write.