National:
Biden: Joe Biden did not have a good day in Iowa yesterday, as he told a Democrat voter grilling him on his energy policy to “Go vote for someone else”. Steyer in particular is snapping back at this, but it again highlights how unimpressive Biden’s stumping skills have been so far this election.
MC Poll-D: Morning Consultant has a poll out of the D primary, and finds that Biden is leading Sanders 29%-23%, with Warren in 3rd place with 14% and Bloomberg right on her heels with 12%. They also find All Democrats but Warren leading Trump by mid-single digits, with Trump and Warren tied 43-43.
Quin Poll-D: A Quinnipiac poll of Democrats nationwide finds that Biden is leading the pack with 26%, Sanders behind him at 21%, Warren in third with 15%, and no one else above single-digits. While most of the trends are as expected, the age numbers are something amazing to behold, as Sanders and Warren combine for 76% of voters under 35, and only 16% of voters over 65. Sanders leads his closest non-Warren challenger by 49 points with voters under 35, but is tied for 5th(!) place with those over 65. The poll also finds that Trump is at 42-53 overall, which is pretty good for Trump in what is generally a poor poll for him.
Sanders: The knives might be coming out for Bernie Sanders as Democrats start to recognize that yes, he absolutely could win the Democratic primary at his current pace. Jonathon Chait has come out with a vicious piece attacking every angle of the “Sanders can win” mindset, saying that not only did it just spectacularly fail in the UK, but it also failed quite dramatically in the US in 2018, as the Bold Progressive! D challengers entirely lost their races vs. Republican Congressmen, whereas the more moderate flavor of Democrats did far better. Expect to see a lot more of this as we keep trucking through primary season.
Trump-1: RCP has Trump hitting a high in his approval rating not seen since the very beginning of his term. Though its still Trump, so that means only being 45-52, but if the Democrats were counting on the impeachment hearings to sink Trump’s numbers they seem to be doing nothing of the sort.
Trump-2: Take this with a grain of salt since this hardly an unbiased source (literally Trump’s 2020 campaign manager), but apparently Trump’s many rallies through the country are doing a great job at pulling in unregistered or unlikely R voters, which his team is then registering and engaging. It seems he is going all in for the “Missing White Voters” theory (though the article claims the events are far more diverse than that statement implies), and it’ll certainly be interesting to see how it plays out since this is something that can really help the GOP up and down the ticket this November. Trump’s recent rally in Wildwood N.J. seems to show this, with people waiting in line for literally over a day to be able to get into a rally in not exactly prime GOP territory.
California-D: An LA Times poll of California’s Democratic Primary has Bernie Sanders out in the lead with 26% of the vote, followed by Elizabeth Warren with 20% and Biden at 15% with Buttigieg and Bloomberg trailing at 7 and 6 respectively. Sanders leads due to a huge margin with young voters and a solid 20-point-lead with California’s numerous Hispanics. He is also the preferred choice of D primary voters who want a nominee they agree with the most on the issues, as opposed to one they think has the best chance of winning.
NH: A new UNH/CNN poll of New Hampshire has Sanders leading 25%-16% over Biden, with Buttigieg and Warren close on their heels with 15% and 12% respectively. The poll also has Trump crushing his primary opposition by over 80 points and gives him a 50-46 approval rating in the state, though they didn’t test head-to-head polling for the GE.
UT: Trump has shored up his support in the Beehive state. Despite an awful showing in 2016 that saw him lose a lot of support to Ed McMullin’s 3rd-party bid, Trump is currently polling with a 57% approval rating in the state. Voters also oppose removing Trump from office, 59-35….
Two of the RRH picked Trump piece’s are selling the concept that the impeachment has increased Trump’s poll numbers and turnout of GOP voters….