We’ll have to see if this is confirmed by other polls….
But Biden has been camped in the state for a while and will be there for next two weeks…
A win for Biden in Iowa would just about assure him the nomination by Super Tuesday….
Sanders and Warren seem to NOT be factors in Iowa….
Joe Biden leads the Democratic field in Iowa, according to a new poll out Monday, two weeks before the Feb. 3 caucuses.
The Focus on Rural America poll shows the former vice president with 24 percent and the next three top-tier candidates bunched behind him, with Elizabeth Warren at 18 percent, Pete Buttigieg at 16 percent and Bernie Sanders at 14 percent. Amy Klobuchar clocked in at 11 percent.
The survey of 500 likely 2020 caucus goers, conducted January 15-18, and had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
There’s some indication that Warren and Sanders suffered fallout from their recent spat — including during and after last week’s debate — over whether a woman could beat President Donald Trump. Warren contended Sanders told her in a private 2018 conversation that he did not believe a woman could win, which Sanders denied.
When asked if there was a candidate they would not support based on the debate,
12 percent of those surveyed said Warren and 11 percent said Sanders. The next highest was billionaire Tom Steyer at 4 percent.
When asked who would best represent the interests of rural Iowa, Klobuchar was the clear favorite with 29 percent.
Also in the survey, Democrats were asked what they would do if their first choice in the caucuses were not viable. While 75 percent said they would realign with another candidate, 17 percent said they would remain uncommitted and 4 percent said they would go home.
“It is significant the 17% [who] say they will remain uncommitted and may indicate that uncommitted will be viable in several precincts,” a statement from the group says.
Of those who choose another candidate, Biden received 24 percent support, Buttigieg received 21 percent, Warren received 16 percent, Klobuchar received 7 percent, and Sanders received 6 percent….
Note…
Warren and Sanders going at it maybe helping Biden…
All thru the race….
ANYONE going after Biden has lost poll numbers…
And Democrats want their candidates going after Trump…NOT each other…
image…Slate.Com
The FACT is Joe Biden leads….
The others ….Warren and worst Klobuchar are far behind….
But people make their own choices…
Biden comes thru with Iowa?
This collapses for the others ….
Historical trends would suggest that if Biden wins Iowa, there will be an increased chance someone else wins New Hampshire.
He, he, he….
Hillary Clinton AND Obama BOTH won Iowa before becoming the Democratic nominee
There are conflicting polls out there.
Biden may very well be the leading candidate twelve days out and,yes, a victory here, would increase the odds that he will emerge the nominee, but to make a statement that ,”Sanders and Warren seem not to be factors in Iowa” is rash and uncalled for.
Based on THIS poll and others?
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Buttigieg
Are ALL ahead of the other two….
Warren and Sanders will be stuck in Wash DC sitting on their hands up to the caucus (except for Sundays)…
I purposely added that this poll needs to be confirmed…
Ref:
It’s much harder to poll a Caucus than a primary or a general election.
What percent is ground game and organization worth? It could render the polls somewhat irrelevant. Four years ago, Hillary was expected to win Iowa easily right before the vote and Trump was easily in first place there in the polls. Hillary won by a “coin toss” and Trump lost to the better organized Cruz. It is widely believed that Sanders and Buttigieg have the best “ground game” in Iowa.
Agreeded….
But remember the 15% threshold….
So many dynamics in a caucus that are, as CG noted, difficult to poll.
Klobuchar seems to be gaining momentum. If she is able to get above the 15% threshold in many of the caucuses that could alter the race much more than if she fails to hit that number and her votes go to second choices.
My feeling is again…
ANYBODY else but Biden winning in Iowa probably helps him…
I DO believe he will pull it out in Iowa…
Wait, so anybody but Biden winning helps Biden?
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Two new polls in Iowa this weekend had Biden leading there. Here’s our current IA polling average with comparison to a week ago:
Biden 21.5 (+1.5)
Sanders 17.4 (-2.5)
Buttigieg 16.4 (-1.2)
Warren 16.3 (+1.2)
Klobuchar 8.4 (+1.7)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/
Nonsensical
Yea….
For Iowa….
I think it muddies the field….
2nd tier people aren’t gonna win…
This helps Biden…
2nd tier wins hurt Warren/Sanders more…
Sanders and Warren fighting helps Biden…
Yup…
Klobuchar or Buttigieg finding a spring-board from Iowa with perceived strong showings is the worse possible result for Biden than just losing to Sanders/Warren. The other two will be more likely to take votes from him.
And if that does not come to pass a few contests down the road and it looks like a Warren vs. Sanders battle, then it will be Bloomberg who will possibly push Biden aside.
I would estimate the “big picture” as if:
Biden wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he is probably going to be the nominee.
Biden finishes worse than third in either Iowa or New Hampshire- he is probably not going to be the nominee.
Anything in between- to be determined
I pretty much agree with the above.
Amy and Pete are NOWW second tier….
There supporters should NOT affect Warren and Sanders from the left and are probably too small to hurt Biden either…
Remember….
Buttigieg is ALL about Iowa…
He’s in the low single digits elsewhere besides NH….
In some national polling Bloomberg as eclipsed Buttigieg…
24 – 18 -16 – 11 two weeks ahead doesn’t look like a shutout at all.
If you apply those percentages to the total sample of 500 likely caucus-goers, you get
480 Biden; 360 Warren; 320 Sanders; and 220 Buttigieg.
And the margin of error for each candidate is +/- 4.4%.
Elizabeth Warren has (roughly) three quarters of Biden’s polling percentage, and Sanders two thirds.
Only Pete Buttigieg’s 11% suggests that he may not come first.
Sorry I don’t mean a absolute shutout…
Biden just needs to win or come in a hair close in second….
Also?
I mentioned….
Biden WILL be IN IOWA for the next two weeks….
Sanders, Warren and Klobuchar will be in D.C.
Sorry the 11% (~220 voters) belongs to Amy Klobuchar, not Pete Buttigieg.
Never rely just on memory.