The state has fought to keep it in the first spot for Democrats to show up without a protective bubble and shake hands with its voters…
Along with New Hampshire….It’s none representative of the rest of the Democratic voting states….
But it makes money and gets its attention….
Every four years, Iowa is the top prize in politics, the first and perhaps most important jewel in the crown.
Ahead of every presidential election, candidates sprint across the first-in-the-nation nominating state to pitch themselves to voters as the best person to lead their party. But the 2020 Democratic primary, with its historically crowded field, has turned the quadrennial footrace into a hectic stampede.
There are the candidates, of course, who descend on the state in their painted buses and black SUVs, racing from middle school gymnasiums to coffee shops to senior centers to make their case to any heartland voter looking for a viable candidate.
But with them comes a storm of others: their campaign staffers, strategists, the political press, even voters from neighboring states eager to catch a glimpse of the next potential White House occupant.
Every four years, Iowa plays host to them all.
Iowa becomes a destination, no the destination, in politics, leading to the first caucuses that will begin the process of selecting the next president. This year they will be held on Feb. 3, less than a month from now.
Some Iowans love it. Suddenly, Iowa is not just a flyover state but a political mecca with the vaunted reputation of being able to predict a party’s eventual nominee (though it often doesn’t — ask Rick Santorum). Some Iowans come dressed for the part, dusting off their caucus uniforms like retired superheroes donning their capes: American flag suits, Abraham Lincoln top hats, Uncle Sam Halloween costumes.
Money flows in. Hotels are booked. Restaurants are full. Towns with less than 1,000 people — less than 500 people — are, briefly, the center of attention.
Brew pubs and high schools become must-stops on the campaign trail. Local parades and picnics draw national coverage. The annual state fair, with its butter cow and fried things on sticks, becomes a political summit. Potluck dinners hold the same weight as closed-door meetings on Capitol Hill. There are rallies and marches. There are drum lines and rock bands.
There comes a point when the race takes over. The candidates’ names are everywhere: On signs planted in yards. Blaring from billboards by the highway. Peering out of coffee shop windows….
image…inquirer.com
Although there are many ways that Iowa’s electorate is wildly unrepresentative of all U.S. voters, it has been a rough index of partisan balance.
When the state had 6 or 7 Representatives in Congress, I used it as a handy thumbnail of partisan divide (together with one or two other states of similar size, e.g. Kentucky). During Democratic national sweeps, Iowa would elect 4 or 5 Democrats vs 1 or 2 Republicans; and the reverse during GOP waves.
In the 16 presidential elections since 1945, Iowa’s voters have favoured the candidate with the most national popular votes (rather than votes in the Elcetoral College) 12 times, picking the national popular vote loser in 1960 (Nixon), 1976 (Ford), 1988 (Mondale). and 2016 (Trump).
Another self-correction (since I somehow lack the infallibility of the current White House).
Iowa’s record since 1945 is 14-4, rather than 12-4.
She voted with the national electorate in
1948, 1952, 1956;
1964, 1968, 1972;
1980, 1984;
1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 & 2012.
She voted for the national popular vote loser in:
1960 (Nixon)
1976 (Ford)
1988 (Dukakis) and
2016 (Trump).
1960 was a very close election both nationally and in Iowa
Still?
The two states ARE unrepresentative of the Democratic vote…
In Iowa, Elizabeth Warren faces down persistent ‘electability’ concerns
When Senator Elizabeth Warren took the stage in the waning light of a frigid winter evening in western Iowa for her first presidential campaign event in the state, Lisa Koch declared she was “all the way in” for the Massachusetts liberal.
But for Koch, an attorney who lined up outside the bowling alley in Council Bluffs well before the event inside began, mixed in with her excitement was concern about the breadth of Warren’s potential appeal as a presidential candidate — in other words, her electability.
“Older white men are not going to like her. There’s going to be women who don’t like her either,” Koch said. She added: “I hope she has a chance.”
BostonGlobe.com.