After very few polls in the first voting state ….
New polling has a tight top group of Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Biden….
The margin of separation between the four is within the polls margin of error…( except for Biden)
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has taken the lead in Iowa, according to a Des Moines Register/CNN poll released on Friday that shows the Vermont senator jumping past his top rivals after a third-place finish in the same survey in November.
The poll, widely considered the most authoritative in Iowa, shows Sanders with the support of 20 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers. He’s trailed closely by another progressive, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who registered 17 percent in the survey.
Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Vice President Joe Biden round out the top four, notching 16 percent and 15 percent support, respectively.
Still, Sanders’s lead in Iowa is narrow – within the poll’s 3.7 percent margin of error – suggesting that the race in the Hawkeye State remains wide open with less than a month to go before the first-in-the-nation caucuses.
The Des Moines Register poll shows that Iowa remains a four-person race….
Note…
The poll a week before this had Sanders, Biden and Buttigieg tied….
image…vanity fair.com
James, The article says that the margin of error is 3.7 points, but you stated that Sanders 5 point lead over Biden is within the margin of error. Please explain why the published statistical calculation was wrong or let us know if you were just confused or were just deliberately lying to hurt Sanders.
Made a mistake if the number is 5%….
Was probably thinking of the poll before that one which had them about tied….
My bad!
Post updated ….
Thanks….
Zreebs, you of all people should understand why a margin of error of +/- 3.7% either way could turn a 20%-15% Sanders lead into anything from 24% Sanders vs 11% Biden (a 7.4% lead) to 16% Sanders vs 19% Biden (a Biden lead of about 2%).
The margin of error applies to each candidate’s individual percentage of the vote (e.g. 16.3% to 23.7% if Sanders were, improbably, at exactly 20.0% and, if Biden scored an equally unlikely 16.0% exactly, a Biden range of 11.3% to 18.7%), rather than to the margin between two candidates.
Dave, I don’t think that is accurate – or at least not entirely the way you wrote it. Assuming the polling was fully random, You are correct that there is a 95% chance that Sanders polling was between 23.7 and 16.3%, and 95% that Biden would be between 18.7% and 11.3%. But the odds that Sanders will be at 16.3% (or lower) and that Biden will be. at 18.7% (or higher) is only .05 x .05 =0.25%. Without going through the actual calculations of a t distribution, I doubt there is a 5% chance that Biden is actually winning when Sanders holds a 5% lead with a 3.7 margin of error.
Although, Zreebs, I never completed enough integral calculus or statistics to fully understand bell curves and degrees of confidence, I did believe that the further away from the given percentage, the less likely a possible alternative would be. I just didn’t realize how relatively small that chance could be.
I had thought about including some notice about this, but couldn’t think of a quick way to explain it.
What I gave you above was a 90% confidence interval. If it was a 95%.confidence interval, the odds are .025 x .025 =0.0625%
I sucked in math….
Correction – what I gave you above was a 90% confidence interval. If it was a 95%.confidence interval, the odds are .025 x .025 =0.0625%
Correction to my text above:
“… if Biden scored an equally unlikely
16.0%15.0% exactly, a Biden range of 11.3% to 18.7%”Z’s correction doesn’t change the closeness of things in Iowa and NH….
Biden HAS come back in both places and is competitive….
Biden is competitive there. I still hold that Biden will not finish in the top two in either IA or NH. We’ll see.
Ur on Z!
Ok – loser buys lunch.
He, he, he😆
I predicted that Sanders would get a push from the media and it arrives right on…..
HE IS THE FLAVOR of the month….
Considering his last campaign, Sanders is far more durable than a “Flavor of the Month.”
It’s not a flavor that a great many people can stomach but those who enjoy it, stick with it, and are prepared to stick with it to the end.
Bernie Sanders’ campaign would not be consistently receiving hundreds of thousands of rather small contributions [I think the current average is something like $18, compared to the famous $27 of 2016] if he were merely a flash in the pan or a flavour of the month.
I stand by my view that Sanders IS NOW the flavour guy….
I have documented at this place several others being in this position with the media….
Recent honourees?
Warren and Buttigieg….
(Warren eclipsed him and dropped back…Buttigieg’s problem with blacks clipped his wings)
As for Sanders fund-raising?
He IS a prolific money making machine no doubt….
His comeback fro his heart attack helped his media embrace…
They LOVE a guy coming back…
Especially a repeat of 4 years AGO?
Wow!
James, Do you think the fact that Biden is a two-time loser in presidential elections is the reason that the press seems to give him rather favorable treatment despite rather frequent mistakes?
I think that Biden IS looked as a old timer in the media….
He gets little respect…
And yea
His two strike out ARE held against him
To be fair?
He didn’t help himself in the beginning by not dancing with the media…
Being an “old timer” is the best thing he has going with the media.
CG?
Sanders is OLDER than Biden
Bloomberg is the SAME age…
ONLY Biden gets the age questions…
Biden has been around Washington a lot longer than Sanders. (Eighteen years to be precise and 34 as a Senator before Sanders joined there) He has also been far more chummy with the establishment media types, etc, going back decades.
Sanders would never have been someone on the DC cocktail circuit.
Perhaps when Biden stops making mistakes (such as confusing Castro with Cisneros), people won’t be as worried about his age.
I do think that people are worried about Sander’s physical health and Trump’s mental and physical health, and age is a legitimate issue – including for some of the other older candidates.
Biden like Trump, Warren and EVERY other human being WILL continue to make mistakes….
It isn’t REALLY hurting his support….