The Black vote IS heavily Democratic….
Right now that vote IS strongly against Donald Trump…
Right now Joe Biden has a solid lock on that vote for the Democratic nomination and would have it for the November election against Trump…
The poll has most of the blacks , in total, identifying themselves as moderates….
Black Democratic voters are energized to vote President Trump out of office in 2020, as less than a quarter of African Americans say their financial situation has improved over the past two years, according to a new study.
A national survey released by Third Way and the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies found that of the 46 percent of black voters who identify as strong Democrats, 57 percent are more energized to vote in 2020 than they were in 2016.
However, about a third of black voters said they only have weak ties to the Democratic Party, and of these, only 34 percent said they’re more energized to vote in 2016.
Some liberal groups, such as Priorities USA, have warned that their polling has found voter enthusiasm lagging among African Americans, who largely identify as Democrats.
Still, the Third Way study found that a plurality of all black voters, 40 percent, said they’re primarily motivated to vote because “Donald Trump has been a disaster for our country and we need to do everything we can to vote him out.”
The second most popular response for why black voters intend to vote is because “voting is the best way to make my voice heard in government,” which came in at 21 percent.
Sixty-two percent of black voters said that Democrats understand their lives, while only 13 percent said the same of Trump and the Republicans.
Trump intends to make the economy a centerpiece of his reelection efforts, but the Third Way study found that only 22 percent of black Americans said their finances have improved, while 50 percent said they’ve stayed the same and 27 percent said they’re worse.
Eighty-six percent of black Americans said the cost of living is going up faster than their wages.
And a strong majority of black voters say racial relations have deteriorated under Trump, with 80 percent saying that Trump’s election has made people with racist views more likely to speak out. Fifty-five percent said they face more racism in their daily lives than they used to….
image…The Hill
james doesn’t seem to understand the conclusions of this story. His narrative does not really fit.
The survey says that 46 percent of black voters identify as strong Democrats. james writes as if a huge majority of that group is saying so.
I will say this also falls into the category of “lost opportunity” for a center-right candidate without the baggage of the Republican label.
You all think I’m crazy but if we wind up with Sanders vs. Trump, that will be a dominant theme this upcoming year….. (as Trump can basically look forward to four more years.)
CG?
The largest group of blacks who actually vote aRE THOSE 45 and up….
They ARE solidly with Biden…
The younger ones are the ones that could go for Sanders…
As a matter of fact?
Sanders runs 2nd in SC…
That second has a double digit margin…
For Trump?
Forget the black vote which would be fumes….
Blacks are NEVER gonna be a life line for a Republican…
Bloomberg was the centre-right GOPer in the Big Apple for TWELVE YEARS!….
What does he have NOW from blacks ?
Nada!….
You ain’t crazy CG…
Just off base…
Sanders vs Trump would be a walk in the park for Trump….
THAT is why Biden is in first place and Sanders is second….
AGAIN like the last time….
CG?
I’m NOT just making this up….
I KNOW what I’m taking about…
…Biden’s averaged 49% among all potential black Democratic primary voters in our last two CNN national polls. That’s good enough not only for a 35-point lead over his Democratic competitors, but good enough to beat all of them combined by about 10 points.
But I think treating black voters as if they’re some sort of monolith creates some sort of a blind spot for those following the campaign: the wide faultline along age in the black community.
In our polling over the last two months, Biden is getting northward of 60% of the vote among black voters 45 years and older. His nearest competitor, Warren, is 50 points behind him.
Younger black voters are far less enthralled with Biden. A look at our polling over the last three months has him in the low 30s with black voters under the age of 45.
This large age gap has existed all primary long, and it’s not going away. If anything, our polling is indicating that it is getting larger.
The age gap in Biden’s support benefits him in a way that I’m not quite sure folks understand. Simply put, there are more older black voters than there are younger black voters. Those 45 years and older made up 60% of all potential black primary voters. In the majority black primary in South Carolina, those 45 years and older were 71% of all actual primary voters in 2016.
I cannot help but think this age divide imperils some folks ability to understand Biden’s appeal with black voters. If all you’re reading about is how a lot of younger black activists don’t like Biden (which is true), you’re missing most of the black voting population. This is also true if you’re someone who gets their news off of Twitter, where younger voices dominate in a way they don’t in the real world.
Indeed, I would argue that Biden’s standing with older black voters is historically strong. Looking back over the past 40 years, the only candidates with anywhere near the sort of edge with older black voters at this point in the primary that Biden has were Jesse Jackson in 1988, Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
All three of these candidates went on to easily win older black voters. Clinton and Gore would win the primary overall….
More…
I thought this was about the general election.
It’s very possible that Trump does slightly better with black voters than last time and it’s very possible he does slightly worse. I don’t think there will be a massive difference from 2016 among that group one way or another.
I believe you will be wrong…
Trump NOW has a history as the piece mentions…
Again?
My linked piece points to the fact that Biden gets the same OLDER black voters Obama got…
My point is also backed up that younger black voters do NOT actually vote in the same numbers as the older ones…
Of course U can dismiss my comebacks…
yeah, some black voters who did not vote for Hillary due to sexism, etc, might vote for Biden. Some older white voters might too. The white voters seem to matter more in regards to the general election.
Biden still has to get nominated. His supporters will need to come to terms with why a lot of people in the party might choose him over one of his primary opponents.
And the linked piece IS what Nate Silver is talking about…
Biden HAS the right black vote…
Reporters have gone to ‘if Biden falters’ lines….
March 3rd isn’t far away anymore…
The nomination still is HIS to lose….
What is being unsaid is that a lot of these older black voters (active church-goers, etc) who are supporting Biden are doing so because they find it hard to support
1. A woman
2. An old Jewish guy
3, A young gay guy
Biden needs all the votes he can get, but his campaign certainly has to internally make their peace with benefiting from those prejudices.
What IS being said is Biden HAS their votes PERIOD….
THAT is what counts…
Nobody has voted yet. As people in your party here have reminded you, the race is very fluid and things can change in a heartbeat.
Biden is showing durablity during the invisible primary but hardly looks like a juggernaut.
Your reply has no connection to either the article that was posted here or my previous comment.
Not sure what else I can do in circumstances like this but try to smile politely at you.
A friend of mine is a young African-American man and local committeeman with the Democratic Party. He is definitely revved up to increase AA turnout for the Democratic nominee no matter who he or she is. And this is in a state that in all likelihood will be a relatively easy win for Trump. These efforts are much more intense in cities like Milwaukee, Detroit, Philly. That’s our easiest way to vote out Trump next year. AA turnout in cities in swing states.
That’s one way, but riskier. If that involves the party moving more to the left, then you run the risk of many in the suburbs who voted for Hillary either staying home or holding their nose and voting for Trump out of fear. It would be smarter to go after those who have voted for Democrats in the past but took a chance on Trump in 2016. That is what Klobuchar is suggesting.
We’re going to do both
Increase minority and urban turnout and continue making inroads in the suburbs.
Also the minor party vote will be significantly lower this time around.
Who do you think is the strongest candidate to do so?
Are there any you fear could have any sort of problem in that regard?
The time for choosing is getting near.
I haven’t seen one forecast from the top pundits that Trump is gonna Geta second term….
Some are dancing…
But some who called the Trump win are strongly predicting a Trump popular vote loss of more millions than Hillary and EC loss…
In their calls they are looking at the midterm voting numbers and the anti-Trump polling numbers…
The state polling numbers for Trump 11 months out aren’t good either…
Remember…
Even those who SAY they support Trump right now will quietly say they do NOT think Donald J.Trump has his shit together…
Big question is always how many people will not admit they are for him but will vote for him?
Perhaps you.
Nope, not a chance. I am transparent as they come in regards to my political beliefs/behavior, unlike you who claims to regularly vote for Republicans, but couldn’t name a single one if your life depended on it.
I am as NeverTrump as they come.
Refusing to vote for the only candidate (hint, the Democrat) who can defeat Trump can only be defined as being pro-Trump lite.
Trump is wagging the dog, and Trump’s own words claiming Obama would start a war with Iran to secure his re-election are proof of exactly of what’s behind this act. Thank God for Harry Reid.
I love it when Republicans get a chubby over acts of war that allow for them to act like patriotic Americans when they have been complicit in providing the traitor in the White House with the tools to continue his criminal activities.
The idea that any of this can be described as the regular order of business is ludicrous. The damage this President is doing is incalculable. There is no doubt that Trump is changing the subject from his trial and crime spree, and 99% of elected Republicans are helping him.
However, it is important to note that we wouldn’t be in this position today if George W. Bush hadn’t started the wrong war in the wrong place at the exact wrong time. We are zeroing in on 20 years of war thanks to an Administration that drove us into debt and a near depression.
We now have an even more reckless Administration focused on winning the next election and actually doing what Trump accused Obama of doing eight years ago.
But with Republicans it always goes back to the black boy.