Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
We’ve got a thing set up to anticipate how bounces from early states will affect national polls. Here’s what it says the polls would look like nationally if all candidates exactly hit their current IA polls with Buttigieg winning IA Biden—21% Buttigieg—21% Sanders—15% Warren—13%
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Just for fun, here’s what it says what national polls look like post Iowa if Bernie wins Iowa with 25% of the vote, followed by Buttigieg (22%), Biden (17%) and Warren (13%): Sanders—27% Biden— 21% Warren—14% Buttigieg—12%
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Anyway, we’ll talk more about this stuff later. But one basic intuition is that Biden would probably indeed prefer Buttigieg to win Iowa rather than Sanders/Warren, because Sanders/Warren are stronger nationally and would be more likely to knock Biden out of 1st after an IA win.
image..The Hill
Any talk yet of a brokered convention? Any odds?
ZIP bdog…..
Media wet dream….
That’s naive. With multiple candidates who can win and with fewer superdelegates, while still not likely, there is a real chance.
Superdelegates vote AFTER the first go round ….
Right now?
If Biden was to win the states he’s ahead in …
Nevada , South Carolina, Texas , maybe California?…..
Biden COULD have the nomination locked in by March 4th….
Buttigieg and Warren split Iowa and NH would be interesting for Biden , who would THEN start a roll in more diverse states…
We’ll see…
But as i have pointed out here?
Biden IS the leader in national polling and state delegate projections right now…
Lots of people don’t like this…
But it IS the reality…
The rich guys have spent 4 times as much as the whole Dem field and between them they don’t have 10% points in national polls…
Ole steady crusin Joe IS the man…
STILL
And the clock is running out…
Yes, highly unlikely….
Odds?About 10 to 1 Against.
a projection post from ya Jack?…
By “popular “ Demand?😒
The Odds (As Of Dec. 8)
To Win the Nomination
Fair and Balanced As Always!
Biden..43%…Gliding along,helped by perception that he will beat Trump.
Warren …24%…Talking about issues is fine but talking about paying for them.Some people don’t want to deal with facts.
Sanders…15%…Propelled on by the most dedicated group of supporters and ability to appeal to anti Trump working people.
Buttigieg…12%…Increasing Support from educated voters.Still suffers from lack of support among minorities.
Bloomberg…3%…Money talks ,at least enough to keep hm relevant.
Booker..1%…Hopes to hang on for a last stand in Black voting dominated S.C.
Klobuchar..1%…Just hasn’t caught on ,though arguably the best GE candidate.
Someone Else…1%…In deference to the highly unlikely chance of a brokered convention.
Thanks Jack…
Your monthly is up….
The fact that superdelegates don’t vote until after the first ballot (which is a 2020 change in the delegate rules) now increases the odds of a brokered convention because it puts a little more pressure on superdelegates against overturning the voter preferencs.
I would give the odd of a brokered conventions maybe 7:1. Most likely, for this to happen there will be 3 relatively strong candidates.