| Poll | Date |
Buttigieg
|
Sanders
|
Warren
|
Biden
|
Klobuchar
|
Harris
|
Yang
|
Steyer
|
Gabbard
|
Booker
|
Bloomberg
|
Castro
|
Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 11/6 – 11/19 | 24.0 | 18.3 | 17.7 | 16.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | Buttigieg +5.7 |
| Poll | Date |
Buttigieg
|
Sanders
|
Warren
|
Biden
|
Gabbard
|
Yang
|
Steyer
|
Klobuchar
|
Harris
|
Booker
|
Bullock
|
Castro
|
Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 11/13 – 11/26 | 20.0 | 17.0 | 14.3 | 13.7 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | Buttigieg +3.0 |
Nevada…
| Poll | Date |
Biden
|
Warren
|
Sanders
|
Buttigieg
|
Harris
|
Steyer
|
Yang
|
Klobuchar
|
Booker
|
Castro
|
Gabbard
|
Bennet
|
Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 10/28 – 11/13 | 29.0 | 20.0 | 19.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | Biden +9.0 |
South Carolina….
| Poll | Date |
Biden
|
Warren
|
Sanders
|
Buttigieg
|
Harris
|
Steyer
|
Yang
|
Booker
|
Klobuchar
|
Gabbard
|
Delaney
|
Williamson
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 10/15 – 11/17 | 35.3 | 16.3 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | Biden +19.0 |
California…
| Poll | Date |
Warren
|
Biden
|
Sanders
|
Buttigieg
|
Harris
|
Yang
|
Bloomberg
|
Klobuchar
|
Gabbard
|
Booker
|
Steyer
|
Castro
|
Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 10/15 – 11/27 | 21.5 | 21.3 | 20.8 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | Warren +0.2 |
Texas…
| Poll | Date |
Biden
|
Warren
|
O’Rourke
|
Sanders
|
Harris
|
Buttigieg
|
Castro
|
Yang
|
Klobuchar
|
Booker
|
Gabbard
|
Williamson
|
Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 7/9 – 10/27 | 26.0 | 16.2 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | Biden +9.8 |
Massachusetts…
| Poll | Date |
Warren
|
Biden
|
Sanders
|
Buttigieg
|
Harris
|
Gabbard
|
Yang
|
Klobuchar
|
Delaney
|
Steyer
|
O’Rourke
|
Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 9/3 – 10/20 | 28.5 | 22.0 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | Warren +6.5 |
Five Thirty Eight on the early primary states polling….
Unlike Biden, Buttigieg’s low to nonexistent support among nonwhite voters might make it tough for him to break through in Nevada and South Carolina. In that South Carolina Quinnipiac poll, Buttigieg polled at 6 percent overall but didn’t register any support among black voters. Similarly, that Fox News survey of Nevada found Buttigieg at 8 percent statewide but with only 2 percent support among nonwhite voters. Similarly, Warren has also struggled to win nonwhite support in either state, attracting only 8 percent of black voters in the South Carolina Quinnipiac poll and 12 percent of nonwhite voters in the Nevada Fox News survey.
Polling in the first four states has shifted quite a bit in the last month and a half as Buttigieg has moved up, but polling in Nevada and South Carolina underscores just how difficult it will be to dislodge Biden from the top of the field as long as he maintains strong support among nonwhite voters. And of course, there still could be a few more shifts in the early state polls between now and then. As past campaigns have shown, late surges aren’t unheard of— but neither are late slides…..
image…caffinatedthoughts.com
Alex Seitz-Wald
@aseitzwald
NEW Monmouth NATIONAL poll:
– Biden 26% (+3 over Nov.)
– Sanders 21% (+1)
– Warren 17% (-6)
– Buttigieg 8% (-1)
– Bloomberg 5% (n/a)
– Klobuchar 4% (+2)
– Yang 3% (even)
– Booker 2% (-1)
Everyone else at 1% or below.
NateSilver
@NateSilver538
538 National Polling average for Dec. 10 (with Quinnipiac and Monmouth polls)
Biden 26.1
Sanders 17.0
Warren 15.0
Buttigieg 9.5
Bloomberg 4.3
Yang 3.4
Klobuchar 2.3
Booker 1.6
Steyer 1.4
Gabbard 1.3
Castro 1.0
Patrick 0.6
Bennet 0.6
Delaney 0.5
Williamson 0.5
JohnHarwood
@JohnJHarwood
new Quinnipiac national poll on 2020 general election shows every prospective Democratic nominee beating Trump :
Biden 51%, Trump 42%
Sanders 51%, Trump 43%
Warren 50%, Trump 43%
Bloomberg 48%, Trump 42%
Buttigieg 48%, Trump 43%
Klobuchar 47%, Trump 43%
Alex Seitz-Wald
@aseitzwald
Michael Bloomberg is not particularly popular among Democrats (barely above water at +1 net fav/unfav) — and even less popular among Independents (-25) and Rs (-60).