And the country leaving the European Union….
…from the BBC…..
The Conservatives are set to win an overall majority of 86 in the general election, according to an exit poll for the BBC, ITV and Sky News.
The survey taken at UK polling stations suggests the Tories will get 368 MPs – 50 more than at the 2017 election – when all the results have been counted.
Labour would get 191, the Lib Dems 13, the Brexit Party none and the SNP 55.
The Green Party will still have one MP and Plaid Cymru will lose one seat for a total of three, the survey suggests.
The first general election results are due before midnight, with the final total expected to be known by Friday lunchtime.
In the exit poll, voters are asked to fill in a mock ballot paper as they leave the polling station indicating how they have just voted.
The exit poll was conducted by Ipsos Mori at 144 polling stations, with 22,790 interviews.
Exit polls have proved to be very accurate in recent years. In 2017 it correctly predicted a hung Parliament, with no overall winner, and in 2015 it predicted the Conservatives would be the largest party.
The BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg said that if the exit poll figures are broadly correct then Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister Boris Johnson will get the backing he needs in Parliament to take the UK out of the EU next month.
It would be the biggest Conservative victory since 1987 and Labour’s worst result since 1935, the poll suggests, with the party forecast to lose 71 seats.
But it will not become clear whether the exit poll is accurate until the results start rolling in during the early hours of Friday….
image….independent.ie
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I mean, he played his hand well, but it’s not really *that* clever. He just trusted polls showing that Corbyn was extremely unpopular and calculated that Remain support would be more divided than Leave as a result.
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Ross Douthat
@DouthatNYT
If the exit polls hold, Boris Johnson comes through looking like the most effective machiavellian in the contemporary West.
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Live BBC coverage (as seen in Britain & Ireland) here:
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/election-2019-50712806/general-election-results-special
Things look very bad for Labour and Corbyn. Exit poll suggested that (where 326 is a majority of 650) the Tories would have 386 MP’s and Labour fewer than 200.
This might be a wave similar to Labour’s in 1945 & 1997, and Margaret Thatcher’s in 1997.
In 1997, solid Tory seats (like Neville Chamberlain’s Birmingham Ladywood, C since the 1920’s) fell to Labour; today, Labour is likely to lose some pretty long-held pro-Brexit constituencies in the so-called Red Wall in Wales and the North of England.
Going down in flames?
I did NOT realise that Corbyn was such a unliked guy?
Also the Johnson race /immigration thing I’m seeing on tweeter….
Correction (a couple of transpositions)
The exit poll suggested 368 C, 191 Lab (not C 386)
And I should have written,
“This might be a wave similar to Labour’s in 1945 & 1997, and Margaret Thatcher’s in
19971979.”Progressives around the planet ain’t doing too good in theses times, eh?
I think it depends on your point of view. Donald Trump and Boris Johnson may think themselves kindred spirits, but Johnson’s victory speech promised carbon neutrality by 2050, and unwavering support for the National Health Service (NHS, or Medicare for All). Churchill and the Tories fought like tigers in 1947 against the NHS’s founding under Clement Attlee and the Labour government of 1945-50, but they now work hard to reassure voters that they won’t threaten it. NHS became one of British politics’ third rails several decades ago — Margaret Thatcher and Boris Johnson both declared that they were NHS patients. Johnson this month said he thought the NHS was “marvelous”.
Of course, in US politics, that would put Boris Johnson’s Tories as being way too far to the left to win the Democratic Party nomination.
On the other hand, Boris Johnson and Donald Trump share much in common. This UK election penetrated Labour’s Red Wall of working-class voters in the North and Midlands (most of which voted for Brexit in 2016) and simultaneously confirmed and strengthened Johnson’s Trump-like wrenching of his party from the old establishment.
¶ With all but two constituencies (i.e. 648/650) declaring returns:
368 Conservative
191 Labour
55 Scottish National Party (SNP, all in Scotland)
13 Liberal Democratic (losing its leader’s seat to the SNP)
3 Plaid Cymru (Welsh Party)
1 Green
1 other (GB)
18 Northern Irish parties:
8 Democratic Unionist (– 2)
7 Sinn Féin (no change)
2 Social Democratic & Labour Party (SDLP, + 2)
1 Alliance Party of NI (cross-community) (+1)
The DUP, whose 10 MP’s were so crucial to making and keeping Boris Johnson as premier of the UK, lost two seats and now hold less than half of Ulster’s seats at Westminster. The DUP was the only significant Northern Irish party to support Brexit in 2016. Of the other 10 seats, seven are still held by Sinn Féin whose MP’s on hoary principle won’t sit in the House of Commons, but three (all gains) by parties who supported Remain and will actually sit, speak and vote in Parliament.
This vote was a BLOW OUT support for Boris and Brexit….
The Brits are in for rough time ahead…
But somehow it WILL work out…
It always does….
Stay tuned for the Russian influence stories to drop….
With all but St. Ives’s (Cornwall & the Scilly Isles in the far southwest) declaring:
CONConservative LABLabour SNPScottish National Party LDLiberal Democrat DUPDemocratic Unionist Party OTHOthers
Seats
364 Conservative
203 Labour
48 Scottish National Party
11 Liberal Democrat
8 Democratic Unionist Party
1 Green Party of England & Wales
14 all others
Change in seats:
+47 Conservative
-59 Labour
+13 Scottish National Party
-1 Liberal Democrat
-2 Democratic Unionist Party
+/- 0 Green
+2 all others
From the BBC:
What’s happening?
The Conservative Party has won a majority of at least 76, its biggest general election victory since 1987
With one constituency left to declare, the Conservatives have 364 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Liberal Democrats 11, the DUP 8, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 4, the SDLP 2, the Green Party 1, the Alliance Party 1, the Brexit Party 0
Across the UK, the Conservatives have received 43.6% of the vote, with Labour on 32.2% and the Lib Dems on 11.5%
St Ives, Cornwall, is yet to declare
Conservative leader Boris Johnson says the result is a mandate to take the UK out of the EU next month “no ifs, no buts”
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn says he will not lead the party in any future election campaign
Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson loses her Dunbartonshire East seat to the SNP by 149 votes. Interim leadership of the party passes to MP Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton
Downing Street says there will be a minor reshuffle on Monday, and Boris Johnson’s Brexit bill will be put back before MPs next Friday
Labour candidates say the election has been “devastating”, with some critical of Mr Corbyn’s leadership and others blaming Brexit
The SNP has won more seats than in 2017
The pound soared against the dollar and the euro as the exit poll was announced