A look at some of the polling for Democrats and Biden vs Trump in a general election… Months out from the primaries and a year out from the Presidential election…
Democrats….
The Real Clear Politics Average…..11/1/19
Biden….26.7
Warren…21.3
Sanders….16.8
Buttigieg…7.7
Harris…4.7
Yang….2.7
Gabbard…2.0
Buttigieg is now firmly in 4th place with the Democrats…..
Three months out from Democratic nomination polling averages from RCP… ….
Iowa.…Warren
New Hampshire…Warren
Nevada…Biden
South Carolina...Biden
California,,,,Warren
Texas...Biden
Mass...Warren…
A year out from the 2020 General Election RCP polling averages…
Biden vs Trump.…
Biden…
Michigan
North Carolina
Ohio
Texas
Pa.
Nevada
Florida
Trump...
Iowa…
Tie…
Arizona
Note…
Warren vs Trump and Sanders vs Trump numbers are not as good as Biden vs Trump for the Democrats
Note….
ABC is out with a new poll that has Trump’s approval at 38% for a couple of months…
The same poll has his approval among Republican voters is @ 74% in their polling down from 84%…
Other polls do NOT have his numbers so low and RCP has balanced this poll with a more generous Rasmussen poll that has Trump @ a 45% approval…
We’ll see….
This poll seems be an outlier…
If Not????
Fresh NYTimes Iowa poll has…
Warren…22%
Sanders…19%
Buttigieg…18%
Biden….17%…
More…
Hey Jack?
U see the ABC poll numbers on Trump
GOP support?
He might say, “get back to me when Trump is down at 10% among Republicans….”
I think it is unlikely that Biden would come in 4th place in Iowa?
Third though? That’s a real possibility and would be a *huge* setback.
It would be amazing if Warren and Sanders can both keep that much support without losing a bunch of it to the other.
It also seems that in some quarters, Sanders is doing better in the polls *after* his heart attack. When they say they want a bleeding heart liberal, they really mean it!
I did.
I also saw that you labeled it an “outlier.”
And ,of course, I noticed the same poll showed that 82% opposed impeachment which was my point and also speaks to another point I have attempted to make here.
Just because Republicans say they “disapprove “of Trump doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t vote for him or they want him impeached.
A good example of this is seen over at CGs other stomping ground ,HHR ..There, you will find Republicans,who often make disparaging remarks about Trump and even call him names.Likely those types would tell pollsters they “disapprove “ of him;however,these same posters readily admit that they would Still vote for him.
That’s the major point.
If several polls show Trumps “approval”among Republicans dropping consistently (the AP poll this week held it steady @85%),then that should certainly concern Trump at least somewhat,but does it come anywhere near asserting that such would prove that these same naysayers won’t vote for him or that these numbers would embolden Republican Senators to vote to remove him(82% are opposed ) ?No they don’t.
I said several weeks ago that his approvals would need to drop to near fifty percent to merit serious attention as to causing Republicans inthe Senate to consider voting to remove.
That remains my view.
However ,it was an interesting poll ,so we shall see what others say And whether these numbers remain lower or quickly rise back into the Eighties.
I might also add that even were Republican Senators even begin considering voting to remove Trump,I very seriously doubt they would follow through.
Such a move would tear the Republican Party apart and likely cause a spilt assuring aDemocratic victory in November.
I don’t necessarily agree with that, but I think what we will see happen is a plethora of Republicans will publicly admit that the evidence suggested that Trump acted inappropriately and they cannot excuse his behavior. They will say, “however, this close to an election the American people should be the final jury.”
You may have a lot of them voting “Present” or some cop-out like that but there will be some kind of negotiated finding in which they can try to distance themselves from Trump but not risk angering his base.
I don’t see anything like that happening.
Indeed at the most, and absent a total collapse in his support And increasing support among Republican voters for impeachment?I see only three possible votes for anything other than acquittal,Romney, Collins, and Murkowski.
What I am saying is they will vote to acquit while expressing disapproval over his actions. They will say they felt it was best to let the American people decide if he should remain President or not.
And obviously, this should be a political goldmine for Democrats, if they can ever figure out the art of effective political communication to mainstream America.
“if they can ever figure out the art of effective political communication to mainstream America”
I’d say Barack Obama was pretty damned good at that
And for all her faults Hillary still won the popular vote by 3 million.
If by “mainstream” you mean “rural America” well they are quite simply–fucked.
He was good at it for himself and selling himself as an individual. For others in his party during those years it did not work out as well.
Not true….
Obama HAD coattails in 2008…
The back lash kicked in 2 years later
He didn’t have coattails at all starting in December of 2008 when Republicans easily won a Senate runoff and then we all know what happened between 2009-2016. #bloodbath
Well?
U can forget the part i said about Biden and Warren not mixing it up….
Warren now is in it on funding her healthcare program …
…
Sahil Kupar
@sahikupar
👀 Elizabeth Warren says Joe Biden is “running in the wrong presidential primary” after his attacks on her health care plan.
“Democrats are not going to win by repeating Republican talking points.”
Somebody correct me but i from 2008 to 2010 Democrats held BOTH Houses of Congress….
People though the GOO was dead after Ibana won….
2010 was the losses for Democrats….
Obamacare helped the GOPer’s
There were special election losses for Democrats in 2009 and Republicans took the Governorships of both NJ and VA. It started right away.
Ok….
So?
Like I said?
Obama HAD coattails and the Dem’s had the House AND the Senate in 2009?
Mainstream America is rural, urban, suburban, small t0wn, etc.
Democrats do better in some areas than others (especially thanks to Trump these days), but they still seem to have issues with communication and people knowing what they are for.
As it relates to Ukraine, I would think Democrats should be able to make a strong and compelling case but seem lost in the weeds to some extent. The true test will be during the public hearings and how they do with the witnesses.
Lost in the weeds?
You sure you’re not speaking of Republicans who almost unanimously believe that nothing impeachable happened , nothing particularly unusual happened at all and that the whole thing is a political “lynching.”
In other words , a wholesale divorce from reality ,all in service to Donald Trump.
Maybe our definition of “lost in the weeds “ is different.
No, they are just B’sing. *Some* of them seem to be on message at least though.
WellI was replyingto your statement that “a lot of them will vote present…”
I don’t see that at all except maybe the three I mentioned.
I would bet money those three will will vote guilty and I would bet money that any Democrat but Manchin will vote guilty.
The others are less certain.
I wouldn’t disagree with that,although I think those three or maybe one of two of them might vote “present” or “not proven.”
one of Biden’s strongest points in ALL polling even in places Warren is ahead is his electibility…..
The push for Dem’s will be a vote AGAINST Trump no necessarily FOR BIden who is running against Trump mostly….
Biden might have to go the full scorched earth “She can’t win” route and insist a vote for Warren is a vote for Biden and that the campaign to beat Trump is over and lost as soon as she is nominated.
He might have to convince people to call him Obi-Wan Kenobi as their “only hope.” (Which I think would then generate a whole bunch of potential for Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and possibly people not even in the race.)
That will create a tremendous amount of angst within the party on both sides of that divide.
Why does Joe Biden’s dog look like he might possibly share DNA with his owner?
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2018/11/17/joe-biden-adopts-rescue-dog-named-major-orig-ec.cnn/video/playlists/atv-trending-videos/
Look at that dog in this picture. You an tell he enjoys sniffing things.
He IS ALL THAT ALREADY…..
People knocking him in debates have lost support…
They didn’t have much support perhaps to start with. I’d be careful with that theory.
In the case of Harris, who saw her support increase after being seen as getting the better of Biden in a debate, it went down due to her own factors of not running a strong campaign. One thing in particular is that Gabbard was seen as getting the best of Harris in the next debate, and a lot of people who were considering Harris went instead to Warren.
We’ll all agree that if Trump’s poll numbers begin to drop consistently below 40% things are gonna get dicey….
The worst would be a Republican who solid his/her soul for a Trump losing his base and looking increasingly like he IS a one termed in disgrace….
It would be everybody on their own.,,
and knowing the Democrats!!
they would just limp ahead politically
Seriously?
Trump loses come next year?
Things ARE gonna be a hot mess in Wash DC
BIG TIME
Anecdotal to be sure, but I mentioned a few months ago that I was going to a yearly social gathering hosted by one of the few people I know who actually voted for Trump and was willing to admit it. The year before we had argued a bit about Trump and how he was doing in office.
This year he said he had gotten sick of everything going on and may not even vote next year.
The Trump 2016 voters that stay home is uncharted territory ….
Nobody there who likes him or supports him really calls him names. There’s one person who says he is “scum” and admits Romney is right to attack Trump, but still Trump has to stay where he is because he is the only “lifeboat” for America. (I’d like to ask if it makes sense to put your kids on a lifeboat where the captain would molest them.)
You have a couple “Democrat trolls” over there plus me and one other person who are lifelong Republicans but accused of being Democrat trolls.
Oh I’ve seen several people there criticize him but still say they’ll vote for him.
And indeed I’ve found that among many Republicans here that I know.Several tell me they don’t “like” him but will still vote for him.
That’s why I find this fascination with the fact that lots of Republicans say they don’t “like” him as indicative of much of anything.
Who cares if they don’t “like” him?All that matters is whether or not they will vote for him.
I agree. That goes along with the point I will make. People are voting for him or defending him publicly even as they don’t like him.
They feel they have no other choice. Hostages.
When Trump is no longer President, they aren’t going to have any reason to defend him anymore. As I have said, it will be on to the next battle.
Generally speaking, voter intensity is considered an important factor in electorate.
Sure, people may be motivated to vote against someone. And yes, Trump’s win in 2016 is about as clear as you can get to seeing how people will vote for what they consider the “lesser of two evils” but it is still not a good thing politically if much of your supposed base doesn’t even like you.
Yes the GOPer’s know say mostly the same thing…
They LIKE that Democrats hate him…
THAT IS it for them….
They do admit Trump is messed up ….
But they don’s care…
But I do run across people who voted for Trump that SAY they won’t again….
i happen to agree with u and do think the poll IS an outlier…..
If not?
Oh Boy!
Donald Trump will Tweet on Sunday morning:
“You will never hear this from the CORRUPT Media, but for an Hour last night, not a single American had anything Bad to say about me.”
Then, people will remind him that would only be possible the night the clocks get turned *ahead.*
He, he, he…..
Good one CG!
It’s a convenient myth that the Democrats had full, filibuster-proof control of the U.S. Senate for more than about five months in Obama’s first Congress (2009-11). The moment when the Senate could pass ACA without a GOP filibuster was brief, fleeting and transitory, requiring Ted Kennedy to travel from what was essentially his death-bed to vote in the Senate.
[One reason that the ACA has so many holes (e.g., no public option) and inconsistencies was the need to retain the support of every one of the Senate’s more conservative Democrats (e.g. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Joe Manchin of W. Virginia).]
As I explained in two long-winded footnotes to the Wikipedia article about “Party divisions of United States Congresses”:
From January 27 to April 28, 2009, when Senator Arlen Specter (R-Pennsylvania) joined the Democratic caucus, there were 56 Democratic Senators, 41 Republicans, two independents and one undecided seat in Minnesota. That vacancy was filled as an additional Democratic seat on July 7, 2009, with the swearing-in of Al Franken, bringing the totals to 58 Democrats, 40 Republicans and 2 independents. Seven weeks later, on August 25, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) died, lowering the Democratic total to 57 for a month until Paul G. Kirk Jr. (D) was appointed and sworn in as Sen. Kennedy’s interim replacement on September 25, 2009. Just over four months later, on February 4, 2010, Scott Brown (R) who had won a special election for the seat, succeeded Paul Kirk, returning the Republican caucus to 41, and again reducing the Democratic caucus to 57 plus two independents. [The Democratic caucus dropped again briefly to 56 in the 18 days between the death of Sen. Robert Byrd (D-West Virginia) on June 28, 2010 and the seating of his interim successor, Carte Goodwin (also D) on July 16.] The appointed Democratic Senator from Illinois, Roland Burris was succeeded on November 29, 2010 by Mark Kirk, a Republican elected earlier that month, once again dropping the Democratic caucus to 56 with 2 independents facing 42 Republicans for the last month of the 111th Congress. December — 2011 Congressional Directory, page 324
From January 3 to April 28, 2009, prior to Senator Arlen Specter’s switch to the Democratic Party, there were 41 Republican Senators. The Republican caucus returned to 41 on February 4, 2010, with the swearing in of Scott Brown (R-Mass.) to fill the Democratic seat of Edward Kennedy and Paul Kirk. After Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) replaced Roland Burris as Senator from Illinois on November 29, 2010, the Senate in the last month of the 111th Congress stood at 42 Republicans, 56 Democrats and 2 independents.
Thanks DSD as usual….