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Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear (D) wins a narrow victory over Gov. Matt Bevin…

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The numbers are close, but Beshear has about 6,000 more votes…

Beshear has claimed a victory….

Old Democratic voters in Kentucky that went to Trump 3 years ago?

Came BACK to the Democrat… Beshear…

(Bevin was a unpopular Governor, by himself, Trump could have actually helped Beshear by showing up…)

And some Trump voters did NOT vote….

Donald Trump was in Kentucky yesterday, a state HE won by 30%…..

Hmmmm?

While other Republicans did well tonight down ballot in Kentucy and in other places?

This has got to make them pause…

Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear (D) on Tuesday claimed an upset win over Gov. Matt Bevin (R), declaring victory in the race for a critical seat in a state that is rapidly becoming more conservative.
“In Kentucky, we can disagree with each other while still respecting each other,” Beshear said during a speech claiming victory in the race Tuesday night. Beshear said he had not talked with Bevin, but said, “My expectation is that he will honor the election that was held tonight.”
With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Beshear led Bevin by a 49.2 to 48.8 percent margin. Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) called the race shortly before 10 p.m. during an appearance on CNN.
The Associated Press, meanwhile, said the race remained too close to call.
Though Kentucky has more registered Democrats than Republicans, its shift in recent years toward cultural conservatism should have made Bevin the favorite for a second term.
But Bevin spent his first four years in office fighting with interest groups across Kentucky, including teachers who went on strike and then took offense when Bevin insulted them to members of his own party in the state legislature.
He even fought with his own hand-picked lieutenant governor, whom he unceremoniously dropped from the ticket earlier this year.
His approval rating slumped with each successive incident….
Note….
Mitch McConnell is ALSO running for his-election in the state next year…
His poll numbers are in the basement.…
Could he be having a headache?

image…motherjones

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  1. BTW?

    July 3, 2018

    As many as 460,000 Medicaid beneficiaries in Kentucky have had their dental and vision coverage cut by Republican Gov. Matt Bevin’s administration.

    The move was announced on the weekend and came after Bevin’s Medicaid overhaul plan was blocked Friday by a federal judge, the Associated Press reported….

    More….

  3. With a few hundred more votes counted or corrected overnight:

    GOVERNOR
    Andy Beshear (D)
    49.2%
    711,955
    Matthew Bevin (R)
    48.9%
    707,297
    John Hicks (L)
    2.0%
    28,475
    100% precincts reporting

    ATTORNEY GENERAL
    Daniel Cameron (R)
    57.7%
    825,814
    Gregory Stumbo (D)
    42.3%
    604,400
    100% precincts reporting

    SECRETARY OF STATE
    Michael Adams (R)
    52.2%
    748,150
    Heather French Henry (D)
    47.8%
    684,186
    100% precincts reporting

    AUDITOR
    Mike Harmon (R)
    55.6%
    782,027
    Sheri Donahue (D)
    41.0%
    576,984
    Kyle Hugenberg (L)
    3.3%
    46,587
    100% precincts reporting

    TREASURER
    Allison Ball (R)
    60.6%
    858,578
    Michael Bowman (D)
    39.4%
    557,432
    100% precincts reporting

    COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE
    Ryan Quarles (R)
    58.2%
    823,801
    Robert Conway (D)
    38.7%
    547,300
    Josh Gilpin (L)
    3.2%
    44,635
    100% precincts reporting

    https://interactives.courier-journal.com/election/2019-general/

    for any later revisions.

    • Is Kentucky a Bellwether?

      First Read: “Another factoid that will make Democrats smile today: In each of the last four off-year gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, the party that won went on to win the presidential race nationwide one year later: Republican Ernie Fletcher won in 2003, Democrat Steve Beshear won in 2007 and again in 2011, and Republican Matt Bevin won in 2015.”

      Politicalwire…

      • I saw someone say this dated back to 1991, but it would not have been the case in 1999.

        Probably a coincidence. Still now, no Republican has ever been reelected Governor there. On the rare occasion one wins, they wind up being unpopular and seriously challenged within the party.

          • Those are called “ancestral Democrats”.

            Most haven’t voted for Democrats above the county level for decades

            Beshear got a few of them back.

            • No, they voted Democrat for Governor (Beshear’s father) and just lost them for one cycle more likely.

              There were big reasons why they were willing to vote for Beshear but not Hillary. For one thing, he did not make a speech about how he was going to put a lot of coal miners out of work.

              Much for Republicans to heed from the results last night but much for Democrats too.

              • Coal is going away either way.

                I guess you agree witb Trump that coal miners should be lied to?

                • They should be helped to the extent they can be helped.

                  Whatever you think of the issue, and I think clean coal technology makes coal mining viable for many, Hillary just committed a massive political gaffe when she said what she said.

                  But we are told here by someone that “she always thinks about what she wants to say and never makes a mistake.

                  • “Helping” them would be to train them for jobs that are going to be available in the future.

                    The Kentucky Coal Museum runs on solar power for cripes sake!

                  • “Clean coal” is a misnomer, and coal mining is NOT viable for many – unless by many you mean robots. But coal must be subsidized in order for it to be a viable energy source – and why would anyone want to subsidized something that causes black lung disease and is a disaster for the environment?

            • In other parts of the country, you can find what some might call ‘ancestral Republicans’ who come from GOP families and respect Lincoln, T.R. and maybe Ike, but vote consistently for Democrats or independents.

              Some cast their first Democratic votes because of the Viet Nam or the 2nd Iraq War; others (especially non-white Republicans) because of civil rights and civil liberties; and others because they’ve always been strong supporters of conservation and the environment.

              [Many of them, however, still held onto (genuine) Republican fiscal and monetary conservatism, especially suburban Republicans who didn’t like paying more taxes for what they considered to be misguided or misgoverned programs.]

              There were once many successful Northeastern, Midwestern and West Coast Republican officeholders who felt and acted in the same way (e.g. Charles Goodell, Clifford Case, Olympia Snowe, John Lindsay, Earl Warren, Thomas Kuchel, John Chafee, Elliott Richardson), but after a series of internal Republican Revolutions (Nixon, Reagan, Gingrich, Bush-Cheney, Trump) there½s very little space left for them.

              At one point the most liberal Republican, Sen. Lincoln Chafee (RI) , and the most conservative Democrat, Gene Taylor (Miss.), both earned exactly middle positions – 50% – on National Journal’s scale of roll calls, but since then there has been no overlap at all, Every Democrat now votes more to the left than any Republican. (Neither Chafee nor Taylor, by the way, stayed in his party.)

          • Breaking…..

            Bevin asks for a ‘recanvasing’ of the Kentucky Governor vote….

            Someone said there is no recount for the state….

            Hmmm?

            There IS a thing where lawmakers in the state get their two cents in the process…

            More to come….

  5. Hillary was correct to admit the truth about the coal industry – even if it cost her votes. Coal is not likely to ever come back, and even if it did, it would be robots employed and not people. Wouldn’t it be great if politicians could say the truth? Former coal miners without jobs who didn’t leave the industry because they believed coal is coming back still don’t have jobs – and if they do, it is almost certainly not in coal. A coal mining company actually has an incentive to hire people who never worked in the industry because if these former coal workers come down with black lung disease, the new employer is responsible for the injury.

    As cruel as this sounds, former coal mining workers need to give up on this dream job and move to another area.

    • Well, Hillary lost (and it was close enough that it can be said she lost because of her statement) and Beshear won.

      As Democrats, you all can determine for yourselves which outcome you prefer.

  6. in the long term, I am hoping that voters will recognize that one party has a leader who consistently lies and is surrounded by elected politicians from that party who support him.

    And despite your desire to make a quip about Biden, there is no comparison on this issue between Democrats and Republicans.

    Republicans such as yourself need to to decide if this is yet another issue that you can be morally indifferent to.

  7. I’m utterly mystified by CG’s comment that “Well, Hillary lost (and it was close enough that it can be said she lost because of her statement) and Beshear won.“

    Trump carried the Commonwealth of Kentucky by nearly 2-1 over H. Clinton or 1.2 million vs 630,00 = 62.5% – 32.&% = + 574,000 or + 29.8% R.

  8. Close enough nationally. I am not suggesting Hillary was going to win KY (although I remember posters on here in 2015 saying she could win Arkansas and Kentucky) but her comments on coal definitely hurt her in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and other places, and thus lost her the election.

    Beshear knew his electorate and won. He never would have said what Hillary did and likely disagreed strongly when he heard her say it.

  9. In my view Beshears victory by about 4000 votes has no implications whatsoever. Bevin should have won but he did a poor job and enough Republican voters had enough of him.

    That’s about it.

  10. … and if you can’t trust the President of the United States of America, then whom can you trust ? (Ask a Kurd.)

  11. In every state that voted Tuesday you saw Democrats gaining ground in the suburbs.

    Even in Mississippi the margin of defeat for Hood was held to 5 points due to his overperforming in the Memphis suburbs.

    This has been the trend since Trump took office. Now in states with with a higher percentage of rural vote that suburban blue surge is not enough to overcome the R votes out where the buses don’t run (to paraphrase George Carlin) , but in Pennsylvania and Michigan this shift will make it much harder for Trump to repeat a victory there. There simply aren’t enough rural red votes to make up for it. Wisconsin is a tad more rural than those other two.

    In states like AZ, GA, NC and TX almost all of the growth is in urban and suburban areas so that only accelerates the blue swing in those states. Probably not enough this cycle for TX and GA, but AZ and NC it could make the difference.

    Here in Missouri the suburbs from both major cities spill into neighboring states so the effect is muted statewide. However if I were Ann Wagner, who was re-elected to her suburban St. Louis House seat by 3 pts last year, the 8 pt win by a Democrat in a formerly ruby red state house seat in her district I might think it’s time to join the “spend more time with my family” club in the GOP caucus.

        • From this story, it also looks like Republicans who were critical of Trump there were able to win in spite of MAGA challengers running as Independents.

        • I would have predicted a couple seat gain in NJ for Republicans. NJ state senate and assembly remains overwhelmingly Democratic.

          And the NJ property tax is ridiculously high. I’m not troubled by GOP gains on the state.

          • Well if the off year elections run true to form Zreebs it is possible New Jersey will elect a Republican Governor on the heels of a Democrat being elected to the White House.

            Jack opined that there was no additional meaning to the Republican loss in Kentucky. Putting aside the fact that the Democrats won races (across the nation) where they have never won since the founding of the Republican Party, there is a trend in off year Gubernatorial elections. The “in party” at the White House loses the seat. And, in Kentucky’s case the White House changes parties in the next election.

            A thirty point Trump state elected a Democrat the day after Trump made a personal appeal to his racist Republican base that a Beshear win would send the wrong message. But that’s meaningless.

            • I’m not sure that it always holds that “Well if the off year elections run true to form Zreebs it is possible New Jersey will elect a Republican Governor on the heels of a Democrat being elected to the White House.”

              My impression from looking at previous years was that switches in Governorships run on their own cycles, independent of the R8-D8-R8-D4-R12-D8*-R8*-D8*-R* pattern of presidential turnovers (*= stretches affected by a difference in the popular and Electoral votes.)

              However, this was not true of Virginia elections (in the same years as New Jersey’s), where for several recent decades the party winning Washington had lost Richmond the next year.

              The Garden State’s pattern of gubernatorial party turnovers just seems to have a random relation to Presidential party turnovers.

              Pres. turnovers; NJ Gov. turnovers

              1952 R 1953 D
              1960 D
              1968 R 1969 R
              1973 D
              1976 D
              1980 R
              1981 R
              1989 D
              1992 D 1993 R
              1997 D
              2000 D/R*
              2008 D 2009 R
              2016 D/R* 2017 D

              D/R* = Democratic plurality in national popular vote while Republican carries Electoral College

              My source for NJ governors was
              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_governors_of_New_Jersey

              It’s just as likely as not that I have made some mistakes, for which I welcome any corrections.

              • So it’s happened that after every Presidential year since 1988, the losing party when wins the NJ Governorship next year.

                Virginia had a similar streak until 2012-2013.

              • Did you look at recent years on Kentucky Dave?

                No it isn’t a lock that this will happen. But from my experience in Virginia it does play a major role in turnout enthusiasm.

              • That did not transfer properly from my spreadsheet. Let’s try this:

                Pres. shifts — NJ Gov. shifts

                1952 R — 1953 D
                1960 D — — —
                1968 R — 1969 R
                — — — 1973 D
                1976 D — — —
                1980 R — — —
                — — — 1981 R
                — — — 1989 D
                1992 D — 1993 R
                — — — 1997 D
                2000 D/R* — — —
                2008 D — 2009 R
                2016 D/R* — 2017 D

                • New Jersey had a change between D to R due to a resignation circa 2004 and that might be throwing you off.

                  The pattern though since 1988 has been consistent. D wins the White House, R elected Governor, and vice versa.

    • Scott makes a very good point. The data doesn’t lie, and the suburbs are turning bright blue.

      That will keep Nancy’s majority in the House and threaten Senators like Collins and others.

      Suburban woman especially have turned on the GOP.

  12. At a neighborhood meeting last night one of the few MAGA heads in my area (my precinct voted 85% for Clinton) complained about the special legislative election we had on Tuesday saying it was “like Russia” because there was only one cabdidate on the ballot. It was explained to him that only the Democratic candidate filed and he should take it up with the local Republican party for not fielding a candidate. He didn’t want to hear it. Claiming it was some sort of conspiracy. He said he tore up his ballot and walked our of the polling place. Ah the reason of Trump Republicans!

      • The picture of the
        “Get a Brain Morans” guy that has been plastered on internet memes the past 15 yrars was taken in my hometown of St. Charles, MO I’m pretty sure.

        When I’ve seen wider shots it looks like the parking lot of a Boeing facility where there was an anti Iraq War prorest in 2003. The “Morans” guy was part of the counter protest.

  13. I see no pattern in Kentucky; however Virginia elected Governors from the opposite party from the White House in every election from 1973 to 2009 (inclusive).

    Heaven knows how this will appear on Polly Dog 101, but here are the results from governors’ elections in Kentucky, New Jersey and Virginia compared to the succeeding or previous election for President.

    Capital Letters indicate switches in party; lower case indicates hold by the same party

    Ky Gov —> U.S. Pres. —> Va Gov & N.J. Gov

    1947 D —> 1948 D —> 1949 d & 1949 r
    1951 d —> 1952 R —> 1953 d & 1953 D
    1955 d —> 1956 r —> 1957 d & 1957 d
    1959 d —> 1960 D —> 1961 d & 1961 D
    1963 d —> 1964 d —> 1965 d & 1965 d
    1967 R —> 1968 R —> 1969 R & 1969 R
    1971 D —> 1972 R —> 1973 D & 1973 D
    1975 d —> 1976 D —> 1977 R & 1977 d
    1979 d —> 1980 R —> 1981 D & 1981 R
    1983 d —> 1984 r —> 1985 d & 1985 r
    1987 d —> 1988 r —> 1989 d & 1989 D
    1991 d —> 1992 D —> 1993 R & 1993 R
    1995 d —> 1996 d —> 1997 r & 1997 D
    1999 d —> 2000 d/R* —> 2001 D & 2001 d
    2003 d —> 2004 r —> 2005 d & 2005 d
    2007 R —> 2008 D —> 2009 R & 2009 R
    2011 D —> 2012 d —> 2013 D & 2013 r
    2015 R —> 2016 d/R* —> 2017 d & 2017 D
    2019 D —> 2020 ? —> 2021 ? & 2021 ?

  14. BREAKING: Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin conceded defeat Thursday, as a recanvass of last week’s election showed him still trailing Democrat Andy Beshear….

    Politico….

      • Something just tells me that Trump would take more than a wee bit longer to concede (should he lose the elcctoral vote) than Al Gore in 2000 or John Kerry in 2004.

        It’s just a faint delicate feathery notion, but somehow I have this vague impression that he would concede (if ever) a little more reluctantly and with a tad more outrage.

        • I think he would be talking all sorts of dodges when he loses…

          But?

          I think things would disappear from underneath him….

          With a new President elected by popular vote and a safe EC margin?

          His power would evaporate quickly….

          There would have to be a eye kept on the electors FOR SURE….

          But staff would be acutely aware that the permanents would begin talking to the incoming people no matter what Trump’s political people would be trying to sell….

          In the end?

          Donald Trump would be isolated I believe…

          The Dec 20th EC vote woulda shut the door….

          Sure the outrage and reluctance…
          But in the end?
          He’d leave….

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