Biden is polling in 4th place in the first state caucus in Iowa just 3 months from now….
He just had a poll put him in first place in New Hampshire the second primary state to vote….
After these two 90%+ white Democratic voter states?
He’d be on a roll if the vote was today……
The goal is to amass 1,990 on the first ballot vote or 2,373 on the second ballot…
On that account?
Right nw?
Joe Biden is the best position*…
That includes having the best numbers against Donald Trump…
….the states that immediately follow New Hampshire — South Carolina and Nevada— tell a different story. Biden has consistently dominated in South Carolina and steadily leads in Nevada. Biden advisers argue that’s because of more diverse electorates in those states: About 21 percent of Nevada’s caucusgoers are expected to be nonwhite, as are two-thirds of South Carolina’s primary voters.
“Trump’s unprecedented attacks definitely don’t help, but Biden resonates with diverse populations,” said Amanda Loveday, the former director of the South Carolina Democratic Party who is now involved in a new pro-Biden super PAC. “Out of the 10 states with the highest population of nonwhite residents, Biden is leading in seven of them.”…
…
Biden advisers argue no candidate has taken more flak in the media than the former vice president and yet he’s still stabilized his national numbers as scrutiny shifts to Warren and others in the field.
In early September, Warren started breaking into the lead in some national polls. She built enthusiasm and drew huge crowds at the same time Biden struggled in debates and with fundraising. But Biden has since rebounded and even gained ground in a raft of recent national surveys.
Some analysts argue that national numbers can quickly shift based on the outcome in Iowa and New Hampshire. In 2008, poll after poll showed Barack Obama trailing Hillary Clinton in South Carolina. That changed once Obama proved his electability in Iowa.
“Obviously they are looking at it as a long-distance race,” Peter Hart of Hart Research Associates said of Biden’s campaign. “But everything is altered after the first two contests.”
“I think one of the things that isn’t covered in Democratic primaries, is the fact that this is actually a race for delegates,” Biden campaign manager Greg Schultz said on a recent donor call. “Looking at a national poll and general election, you want to see where are the battleground numbers. … By the time Super Tuesday is done, then we’re going to have a really good cross section of the Democratic Party in various regions.”
Schultz again managed expectations on Iowa. “I think because our coalition is so broad we’re the one campaign that does not have to win Iowa,” he said. “We feel we can win Iowa, we’re playing to win. Joe Biden is spending a lot of time there. But our faith is in that broad coalition.”…
Note…
* I’m gonna get the Obama was behind until South Carolina story for 2008….
To that?
This….
Joe Biden actually owns the SAME base that Hillary Clinton THOUGHT she had back then, but didn’t …..
image…motherjones.com
New Monmouth University poll has Buttigieg in first and Biden in second place….
This IS good for the both….
The poll says the race is fluid there…
But the two leaders ARE moderates….
Biden losing to Buttigieg in Iowa is worse than losing to Warren or Sanders.
Losing to Buttigieg and with one of them in second place is even worse.
All of the eventual Democratic nominees since 1980, except Michael Dukakis in 1988 and Bill Clinton in 1992 (when Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin swept the state), have led the Iowa caucuses. From the Wikipedia article “Iowa caucuses”
1980 (January 21): Jimmy Carter (59%) and Ted Kennedy (31%)
1984 (February 20): Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%), and Jesse Jackson (2%)
1988 (February 8): Dick Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%), and Bruce Babbitt (6%)
1992 (February 10): Tom Harkin (76%), “Uncommitted” (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%), and Jerry Brown (2%)
1996 (February 12): Bill Clinton (98%), “Uncommitted” (1%), and Ralph Nader (1%)
2000 (January 24): Al Gore (63%), and Bill Bradley (37%)
2004 (January 19): John Kerry (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Dick Gephardt (11%), and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
2008 (January 3): Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%), Bill Richardson (2%), and Joe Biden (1%)[34]
2012 (January 3): Barack Obama (98%), and “Uncommitted” (2%)[23]
2016 (February 1): Hillary Clinton (49.8%), Bernie Sanders (49.6%), and Martin O’Malley (0.5%) [35][36]
A dark money group purchased an ad promoting Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign that ran in Iowa’s biggest paper this week — despite the candidate’s opposition to outside big money groups…
…
The Warren campaign said it did not know about the ad and asked for the people behind it to stop….
More…
New Polls….
A new CBS News/YouGov poll in New Hampshire finds Elizabeth Warren leading the Democratic field with 31%, followed by Joe Biden at 22%, Bernie Sanders at 20% and Pete Buttigieg at 16%….
…
A new CBS News/YouGov poll in Iowa finds Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden leading the Democratic field with 22% each, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 21% and Elizabeth Warren at 18%….
Politicalwire…
(Things ARE fluid in the first two states)
Another Iowa poll hits…..
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus DM Register/CNN Buttigieg 25, Warren 16, Biden 15, Sanders 15, Klobuchar 6, Harris 3, Steyer 3, Yang 3, Gabbard 3, Booker 3, Bloomberg 2, Castro 0, Bullock 0 Buttigieg +9
(and we have Nevada and SC polls backing up Biden’s substantial leads after Iowa and NH…)
Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus CBS News/YouGov Biden 33, Warren 21, Sanders 23, Buttigieg 9, Harris 4, Steyer 2, Yang 1, Klobuchar 2, Booker 2, Castro 1, Gabbard 0, Bennet 0, Williamson 0 Biden +10
South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary CBS News/YouGov Biden 45, Warren 17, Sanders 15, Harris 5, Buttigieg 8, Steyer 2, Booker 2, Klobuchar 1, Yang 0, Gabbard 1, Delaney 1, Castro 0, Bennet 0 Biden +28
RCP….
Another poll cementing Biden’s hold on SC….
A new Quinnipiac poll in South Carolina finds Joe Biden leading Democrats with 33%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 13%, Bernie Sanders at 11%, Pete Buttigieg at 6%, Tom Steyer at 5%, Andrew Yang at 4%, Kamala Harris at 3% and Cory Booker at 2%.
No other candidate tops 1%, and 18% of likely voters are undecided….
Politicalwire…