A look at Erie County in the state that Trump won in 2016….
But now trails Biden, Warren and Sanders there….
In nuts and bolts politics 13 months out from the general election next November?
Donald Trump is looking like a one term President….
In 2016, President Donald Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to win Erie County since Ronald Reagan in 1984. But a new Mercyhurst poll found him trailing the Democratic presidential frontrunners in the county. His job approval is under water.
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders all lead Trump in a hypothetical head to head matchup for the presidency in the county beyond the margin of error. Biden holds the largest lead over Trump with 52% to the president’s 38%. Warren leads Trump 47-40 in the county, while Sanders bests Trump 46-41 in a hypothetical head to head matchup….
Note…
Emerson Polling averages for Pennsylvania ….Biden and Sanders …55%/Trump/45%
This is from polling in the Spring though….
I think a fair number of voters in counties like this viewed casting a ballot for Trump as a one time thing.
It was something different and they tried it.
I don’t expect all of those voters to necessarily vote for the Democratic nominee though. Some will, a lot will probably stay home.
It’s fun to “shake things up” the first time. Asking them to do it again is tougher.
For a LOT of them we hope?
There IS NOW a history…..
Yes I think this is an important point.
Keeping “ rage” alive is a difficult thing to do and the Trump phenomena has mostly been fueled by a certain “ rage” against “ libruls” and the media,a fact I have alluded to on numerous occasions.
Certainly some will continue to “ rage” and return to support Trump;however ,a “rage” has now developed against him on the other side.This “fresh rage” may be greater than the “old rage.”
Thus, the “fresh rage” will be highly motivated to vote.The “old rage?”Maybe not as much.Given Trumps very small margin of victory in the three states of Pa. ,Mich, and Wisconsin,he has very little margin for error.
An “old rager ” staying home is,in effect, a vote against him.
Yes I’ve said since November 2016 that Trump’s message is a tough one to package again for a reelection campaign.
The response from his supporters?
Nope he’s gonna win the same way he did last time. Hillary was ahead in the polls and lost etc etc.
Of course to a T these were all partisan Republicans who would never ever vote for a Democrat.
Trump will win those filks no problem. They are his base. The independents, those who voted Obama and then Trump or didn’t vote and then Trump are obviously not as sold this time around.
Another piece about Erie Pa. up for grabs to the Democrats….
…Jump ahead to October and Democrats in Congress are investigating evidence of President Trump’s possible abuse of power. Mr. Graham has had an electoral conversion.
“Things have changed in the last couple weeks: More stupidity has come out,’’ Mr. Graham, 69, said in a telephone interview last week. He hopes Democrats nominate former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., but he is not particular. “I’d vote for the Democratic nominee no matter who it is at this point,” he said. “If Mr. Trump gets into another four years, where he’s a lame duck, it’s going to be like adding gasoline to the fire.”
[Which Democrats are leading the 2020 presidential race this week?]
Heading into 2020, there is intense focus among campaign strategists on the weakest element of the Trump coalition: the millions of voters who disapproved of both major candidates in 2016 but took a chance on Mr. Trump. Whether an impeachment inquiry moves Obama-Trump voters like Mr. Graham off the fence, one way or the other, is a major narrative arc in the 2020 script that is rapidly unfolding and updating….
More…