Donald Trump is having troubles this days….
His parties Senator’s , who have had his back are feeling his pain….
And they probably have an impeachment vote coming their way….
It’s gonna be a tough 13 months till Election Day 2020…
Buried in the Washington drama of impeachment, corruption, and foreign policy chaos this past week was a ground-shaking bit of news: New polling and fundraising figures show that Mitch McConnell’s hold on the Senate majority is looking awfully precarious. Indeed, the pathway for a narrow Democratic takeover of the upper chamber is looking clearer than ever.
Four Republican senators were outraised by their Democratic challengers in the third fundraising quarter, with three of them representing battleground states (Iowa, Maine, and Arizona) that Republicans will need to win to maintain power. And in North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis raised only $1.2 million, an underwhelming sum for a senator facing a credible primary threat and an expensive general election ahead. All four swing-state senators also are viewed unfavorably by their constituents according to new quarterly Morning Consult polling, underscoring the sudden shift in support away from Republicans.
In Iowa, Sen. Joni Ernst failed even to hit the million-dollar mark in fundraising, a financial baseline of sorts for senators running for reelection. She was outraised by a Democratic outsider, businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, who raised $1.1 million despite facing a contested Democratic primary and refusing donations from corporate PACs.
As her fundraising has slowed, Ernst’s support back home has also declined. The Morning Consult tracking poll found Ernst with an underwater job-approval rating of 39/43, with more independents viewing her unfavorably than favorably. That’s a shift from her net-positive job approval over the spring, which stood at 42/38.
Donald Trump comfortably carried her state in 2016, but since then, Iowa farmers have taken a serious hit from the president’s trade war. Both Gallup and Morning Consult have found his support sinking in the state, with a March Des Moines Register poll showing even 28 percent of Iowa Republicans believing the tariffs have hurt the state’s agribusiness.
These are all major red flags suggesting Iowa is a much bigger battleground than Republicans anticipated at the beginning of the year….
Here’s the post Keith …
Thanks….
Iowa is a relatively swing state, but she’s not a belwether or weather-vane state because she sometimes swings against the national tide, and has over the decades moved from strongly Republican to tossup. (From 1856 to 1988, Iowa backed only five Democratic candidates: LBJ in 1964, Truman in 1948, FDR in 1932 & 1936 and Wilson in 1916 in a 3-way race.)
In 1960 she voted for Nixon and in 1976 (like almost every state between Minnesota and Hawaii) voted for Ford. In 1988 she voted for Mondale (like several Farm Belt neighbors) In 2000, she voted with the country (for Gore) against the Electoral College victor (G.W. Bush); but in 2016 the opposite, voting against the country (H. Clinton) for the Electoral College victor (Trump).
As you can see below, the percent margin has become quite small, in the single digits or smaller.
D-R Margins since 1960
2016 -9.4% Trump
2012 +5.8% Obama
2008 +9.5% Obama
2004 -0.7% GW Bush
2000 +0.3% Gore
1996 +10.3% W. Clinton
1992 +6.0% W. Clinton
1988 +10.2% Mondale
1984 -7.4% Reagan
1980 -12.7% Reagan
1976 -1.0% Ford
1972 -17.1% Nixon
1968 -12.2% Nixon
1964 +24.0% LBJ
1960 -13.5% Nixon
Iowa has sought to exploit the early votes as has New Hampshire…
Both are oversized in the contest…
Both are non-representative of the rest of the country…