How desperate was the editor and the reporter to do another negative Joe Biden story?
This….
They go to South Carolina polling an show that Elizabeth Warren’s black support there has climbed to an amazing 13% which B Biden’s is at 42%….
It just makes ya shake your head….
Joe Biden LEADS Warren and the rest of the field right now….
He HAS for months….
Media types write that in their pieces after they gush over Warren’s rise in the polls….
That’s their thing…
There is NO Barack Obama running against Biden….
And ole’ Joe just keeps motoring along in the lead with barely 3 months until the actual vote start’s….
Joe Biden’s advisers have repeatedly downplayed the need for him to win in predominantly white Iowa and New Hampshire — while boasting of his strength in Southern states where black voters often dominate.
And the polls, to date, back up their theory that that’s his path to the nomination.
But if Biden’s firewall ever cracks — and there are some signs it’s softening in recent surveys — it will likely start with young black women, according to interviews with a dozen African American female organizers, lawmakers and activists who are heavily involved in the Democratic primary election or closely tracking the mood of black voters.
Their consensus: No candidate, Biden included, has a lock on African American voters in key early primary states. And Elizabeth Warren is gaining traction among black female voters under 50, while Bernie Sanders has a significant following among young black voters as well.
The anecdotal reports from African-American activists on the ground offer a reason for skepticism that Biden has already clinched the Democratic Party’s must-win voting bloc. The state of play is more fluid than assumed, they said, offering hope not just to Warren but to other candidates hoping to mount a late surge in the primary should Biden collapse….
…
Warren’s support among black women, according to Morning Consult, has inched up from 8 percent three months ago to 13 percent in a survey released this week. Biden currently has 42 percent support among black voters, the poll showed. Morning Consult is one of the few polls that provides breakdowns of their findings by gender and race…..
Note…
I have highlighted in bold the guessing and suggestive words the authors of the4 piece use to present their point of view….
image..everythinglubbock.com
What’s the point of being upset at Politico?
These stories are always written about front-runners. Biden looks to be an historically weak front-runner at this point.
Are people going to change their votes because of a Politico piece? If so, they really were not that committed to a candidacy anyway.
It is very likely though that young black professional women could move towards Warren and that would be significant.
My point is that story is written on ‘if’s’ and ‘should’s’…..
I do point out that the author’s do point to the actual polling that DOES show B identikits WTF ahead with the Black vote….
The Biden people are saying what I have been saying here….
After Iowa and NH?
Biden HAS GOOD numbers that the others are chasing…
I have mentioned this many times before.
Losing the first two contests is never a good path to the nomination.
And just continually posting the current poll numbers from states after Iowa and NH and assuming they are static and will not react to what happens in the first two states shows a fundamental lack of understanding of how these things work.
If Biden loses both Iowa and NH?Yeah he’s got problems.
I agree he’d be sloppy if he loses BOTH Iowa and NH….
But Bill Clinton lost them both and he got two terms ….
My money remains on Biden…
This has been covered before.
In 1992, Iowa was not contested. Tom Harkin was running and nobody paid attention to it.
Clinton came in 2nd place in NH to a neighboring Senator and called himself the “Comeback Kid” because that entire campaign had talk about his draft dodging and adultery and nobody thought he would be able to survive.
No non-incumbent President or non-incumbent Vice President has ever been considered as much of a favorite as Biden was going into this campaign. Thus, expectations of winning the first states were there.
I would compare his situation to that of GWB in 2000 and Mitt Romney in 2012 in terms of expectations. Both won at least one of the first two.. (Romney both in all actuality)
Also, Bob Dole in 1996, who won Iowa.
If Biden loses *both* to the *same* opponent, and also perhaps if he comes in *third* in one of the two, I can’t see how he recovers.
My hunch right now is that he might come in third in Iowa behind Warren and Buttigieg.
He recovers in SC….
Sanders actually gets more of the black vote in SC in current polling…
I REALLY do NOT see how Warren can be completive after the first two small non diverse states….
You might be in for a very rude awakening then.
Being optimistic is one thing. Being myopic is another.
Not optimism….
For him yea….
But as I just commented….
The polling reads what I’m saying and the post here says the same thing….
And of course I could be wrong….
But I doubt it right now….
BTW?
Biden IS moving up in the RCP Iowa polling average…..Since Sept Warren has NOT lead him there in the polls…
In the NH polls Biden holds at his same numbers , But Warren has dropped in hers…She only lead in him in. the average by less than 3% points….
Jack’s right …
Polls ARE just polls….
But quietly?
I believe that Elizabeth Warren peaked about two weeks ago….
Her debate performance this month isn’t gonna get her any bounce
Way TOO early….
We’ll see if this ole Dog has smelled out something on this….
In Iowa, it;’s always about organization and committment above all else.
Warren’s people are true believers. They will show up regardless of the weather or other factors and she seems to have a lot more money on hand to get people to the Caucuses.
Agreed on ur first….
Biden’s are ALSO…..
A Caucus isn’t popular vote’s is it?
BTW?
The DNC has cut them back drastically since 2016….
I should say virtual ones
For one thing, Iowa & N.H. will clarify who is or are Joe Biden’s chief opposition, leaving the also-rans to lose their donors and drop out of the race.
Yea DSD….
It WILL get serious after Iowa