This is the second poll from Quinnipiac University showing a meteoric rise by Elizabeth Warren nationally and it is the ONLY polling outfit doing this…(Are they in the outlier business?
Every other poll, including a CNN poll yesterday has shown Joe Biden at least 5-8% points or more ahead of Warren….
The poll does show Biden as the most electable Democrat against Donald Trump @ 42% vs Warren @ 20%….
Something seems wrong based on those two opposite numbers…
An ‘average ‘ of even BOTH the CNN and Q Poll STILL would have him leading the pack….
Senator Elizabeth Warren has opened up a lead in the Democratic primary race after being locked in a tight race with former Vice President Joe Biden for several weeks, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea- ack) University national poll released today. Warren receives 28 percent of the vote among Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic, while Biden gets 21 percent. Sen. Bernie Sanders gets 15 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets 10 percent, Sen. Kamala Harris is at 5 percent and Sen. Amy Klobuchar is at 3 percent. No other candidate tops one percent.
In an October 14 poll, prior to the fourth debate, Warren and Biden were locked in a close race in which Warren received 30 percent, Biden got 27 percent, Sanders had 11 percent, Buttigieg got 8 percent, Harris received 4 percent and Klobuchar had 2 percent of the vote….
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Biden is still viewed as the candidate who has the best chance of winning against Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election, but he is not as strong on this question as he once was. In today’s poll, Biden gets 42 percent, but this is down from 48 percent in the October 14 poll and his high of 56 percent in an April 30 poll. Warren comes in second on this electability question with 20 percent, followed by Sanders at 14 percent…
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Biden and Warren continue to be close on the question of who would be the best leader, with Biden at 28 percent, Warren at 24 percent, and Sanders getting 13 percent….
Update….
The NY Times attempt’s to explain the divergent poll numbers from the Warren ahead Q Polling and other polls from SBS and CNN that have Biden with substantial leads….
It is not clear why the CNN and Quinnipiac polls present such divergent results for Ms. Warren and Mr. Biden. But the polls, both considered to be of high quality and able to help candidates qualify for the next Democratic debate, add data points to a divide that has emerged in recent weeks: between surveys that show Mr. Biden with a commanding lead, and those that have him in a statistical dead heat with Ms. Warren.
A number of things can affect a poll’s results, including the wording of a horse-race question and the order that items are asked. In CNN and Fox News polls this year, respondents have typically been asked for their opinions on each of the Democratic presidential candidates, among other questions, before being queried about their vote preference.
In Quinnipiac’s polls — as well as those conducted by Monmouth University, which have also shown Ms. Warren climbing steadily — people have not typically been asked to evaluate the candidates one-by-one before giving their vote choice….
image..NBC.News
The media has played this poll as a ?
There is a new Iowa State University poll out this morning (of Iowa) that has Biden in 4th place. (Buttigieg in 2nd, Sanders in 3rd)
Here’s the link for the Iowa Democratic poll…
I just added a link in this post from a NY Times piece dealing with the difference in Democratic nomination polling over the last 24 hours….
The Q Poll IS creating questions in HOW polling questions are asked…
I’m going to go out on a limb here as throw out something I think COULD be occurring ….
If the Q polling is indeed off?
And the CNN and Others are correct in their post Oct debate polling numbers FOR Biden?
Then Elizabeth Warren has probably peeked
right before and going into the Oct. debate…
She IS going to have a headwind coming her way in how to pay for her universal healthcare plan….
We’ll see….
But if we have additional polls with Trump ahead ?
Q polling is gonna end being looked at luke Rasmussen….
Same variance in Cal…..
Two polls out with wildly different numbers….
KQED/NPR 10/15 – 10/18 19 28 24 8 9 3 1 2 1 2 0 1 1 Warren +4
KGTV-TV/SurveyUSA 10/15 – 10/16 33 18 17 8 4 4 2 1 2 1 1 1 — Biden +15
RCP….
Hmmmmm?
I and others will continue to have doubts about Q Polls….
Morning Consult
New Democratic primary tracking:
Biden: 32% (+2)
Warren: 20% (-1)
Sanders: 20% (+2)
Buttigieg: 7% (+1)
Harris: 6%
Yang: 3%
Booker: 2% (-1)
Gabbard: 2% (+1)
Klobuchar: 2%
O’Rourke: 2% (-1)
This is gonna generate some noise from other pundits ….