Despite the media trying to sell Elizabeth Warren , who IS now in 2nd place?
It appears that Joe Biden is maintaining his sizeable lead over other Democratic nomination sweepstakes contestants …
And he has let it be known that he wants the others to NOT join Donald Trump and the Republicans in attacking his son’s past business actions, which have been declared legal by investigators…
Together Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren capture the support of more than half of Democratic primary voters, according to the latest Fox News national poll on the 2020 election.
Biden stays on top in the race with 32 percent support among primary voters, up 3 points since September. He’s followed by Elizabeth Warren at 22 percent — that’s up 6 points and a new high for her. Bernie Sanders is at 17 percent, down 1 point since last month.
While Biden’s support has stayed between 29-35 percent since March, his current 10-point advantage is about half of his 19-point lead in June.
The rundown continues with Kamala Harris at 5 percent, Pete Buttigieg at 4 percent, Beto O’Rourke at 3 percent, and Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang each at 2 percent. Michael Bennet, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Tim Ryan, Tom Steyer, and Marianne Williamson receive 1 percent apiece.
CLICK HERE TO READ THE POLL RESULTS
Biden retains top billing with strong support among non-whites, voters over age 45, and moderates/conservatives. Warren has strengthened her position by increasing support among suburban voters, very liberals, and men….
Joe Biden has a warning for his Democratic rivals as they prepare for the fourth televised debate next week: Stay away from the issue of Ukraine and Hunter Biden.
The 12 candidates participating in Tuesday’s debate in Westerville, Ohio, are honing their answers to questions about the U.S. House impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump, which centers on the president’s request to the leader of Ukraine to investigate unfounded allegations about Biden and his son’s work there….
image…newyorker.com
Look what happens though when these voters are asked to pick their second choice.
the one thing Biden had going for him was that he outperformed the other Democrats when looking at how they performed in a two way race against Trump. That advantage has almost totally disappeared.
I have seen no evidence that the media is trying to sell Warren at all. Biden has only himself to blame for his fall in the polls. Actually, I think that the media has been rather kind to Joe.
Hey Z?
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I’ll have a post up about this later this week, but at least in polls over the past 2 weeks, it’s sort of a myth that Biden’s falling in the polls.
Instead, Warren’s rising bigly and taking a bit from everyone: 2 points each from Bernie & Harris, 1 each from Biden, Booker, Beto….
10/9/19
…
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
You can pretty much count on these strong polls for Biden in Wisconsin and South Carolina getting ignored since they don’t match the media narrative. foxnews.com/politics/fox-n…
!0/7/19
…
Is There A Problem With How The Media Covers Elizabeth Warren?
… The main issue for me in analyzing the race is that many of the people I follow on Twitter for non-political reasons — say, for their expertise on economics, gender or race — tend to like Warren and not Biden. I don’t even think Obama in ‘08 was thought of as the “candidate of the experts” like Warren is because Clinton was also fairly well-liked by wonky people. So we have this weird dichotomy, and I have to constantly check the polls and be like, “Is Biden still doing well? Yes, he is.”…
More @ FiveThirtyEight
Biden hasn’t really dropped in head to head matchups with Trump (I view the polls that showed him leading Trump by 15 to be outliers in this day and age).
However Warren has definitely improved her standing in one on ones. Trump continues to fall.
The more Americans get to know Warren the more they like her.
I don’t know if I agree with the last part.
She may be improving against Trump because more Americans have *heard* of her and thus Biden’s and Sanders’ name ID edge gets smaller, and hence, she is not Trump, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they know a lot about her or will like her.
So she beats Trump by 10 pts but people don’t like her?
Many people would say they would vote for an avocado over Trump.
And many would do so.
One gaffe though and the avocado might be toast!
Well all thinking Americans should be ready and willing to cast their ballots for the one candidate who will be able to actually beat Donald Trump-the Democratic nominee.
Support for impeachment among Republicans in the Fox Poll runs at 13% ,roughly equal to the percent who voice “disapproval “of him in the poll.
In my view this is the number to watch.
My contention has been that ultimately the impeachment effort is more of a”statement “than anything else, in that getting the approximately 40% of the Senate Republican Caucus support necessary for his removal is highly unlikely.
If the Republican support for such triples?Then there might be something to talk about;otherwise, this 51% number is mostly Democrats and Democratic leaning independents ,which is hardly surprising but good for a headline I guess.
But if nothing else, it perhaps allays the fear that “OMG, if he gets impeached, he’s going to get reelected!”
Those who are already against him (a sizable amount) are REALLY against him and genuine swing voters do not seem to mind.
And yes, you have instances of someone like John Shimkus yesterday saying to take him off the list as a supporter for reelection, over the Kurds.
A sinking ship is a sinking ship. It doesn’t really matter how the holes got there.
Shimkus is retiring. If only some Republicans running for reelection showed any balls.
Adam Kinzinger of Illinois has been pretty forceful in denouncing the Trump policy.
OK. One running for reelection. What about the other 180 or so?
The Republican Members of Congress who openly did not vote for Trump in 2016 tended to lose their seats in 2018.
Good point.
That’s why they’re not going to support impeachment regardless of the evidence or even their personal feelings.
Depends on the polls.
But you don’t need any Republican votes in the House anyway, although I am sure there will be a few (plus Amash)
Oh certainly if Pelosi wants to bring it to a vote ,impeachment will pass.
No doubt.
My point was more to the Senate.The same principle applies to Republicans there ,if you don’t support Trump?You lose .
Different considerations between House members and Senators.
Senators are not up every two years and states in general tend to be less homogenized politically than CD’s.
Not when it comes to Republican politics.
A Senator who opposes Trump ,particularly from a Republican voting state will be in trouble and he knows it.
And despite his anti Trump rhetoric of late,Mitt Romney says Trump will not only be the Republican nominee,
He will be re-elected.
He understands where the Republican Party is at.
His prediction of reelection?Well he is a Republican.
Jack IS correct that Romney never quite shoves Trump away
The Impeachment of 2019 will only be a political story in 2020, if even that.
We will likely have moved on to new issues and new controversies/scandals, if not new personalities by the time the other 2/3 Senate classes are up.
Romney knows what he is saying. He has been saying the same thing, using the same words for a while. He knows exactly what he is doing. (and he has made it clear he is not supporting Trump)
In the grand scheme of things, his “analysis” as to an election this far out is fairly irrelevant. Lots of factors may change.
Sure it’s irrelevent.
Sort of like him.
Romney is no longer a factor in today’s Republican Party.Only by occasionally making an anti Trump statement can he draw any attention.
Any Republican Senator that says he’s for removing Trump from office will be the subject of numerous tweets from Trump and a barrage of negativity from his state party.
Everyone knows this.
Well, besides being relevant to the state he was elected to represent, he is relevant to the media and to factions within the party.
Things can change pretty quickly. Just look at how fast Trump rose.
You still are holding on to hope that Romney is going to appear on stage with Trump and hug him because you *want* that to happen. You want to say, “look, all these Republicans are the same…”
(but will vote for some locally when the Dems are weirdos)
If they are in a state where Trump is unpopular, then other political considerations matter more.
This is only an immediate factor for those (in both parties) up in 2020.
By 2022, is a reelected Trump suddenly going to be really popular?
Is he going to even be reelected?
There’s a lot we do not know, but some assumptions make sense too.
I will tell you this though..
DJT will be far more popular within the Republican Party and will have far more remaining loyalists if he is convicted and removed from office as compared to if he is defeated for reelection.
Still though, the first “vote” is a necessary one to have.
If he survives impeachment in the Senate and is defeated in 2020, very few in the Republican Party are going to care about anybody in the party who voted to impeach or convict him.
It reverts back to more “all politics is local” plus the perception that Trump proved to be an anchor anyway who does not always “win” and that those who tried to get rid of him turned out being right early on.
I suspect that things won’t be THAT simple CG….
Romney types will smile and look for part of the new king of the mountain perch,…
I see with virtually no coat tails after leaving the stage….
Heck….
If the croaked stuff keeps up?
Trump might get pushe of the stage as strange as we might think?
and if jack were on a Democrat debate stage and said “he” in reference to all Republican Senators, he would be reminded that they are not all “he.”
(no, not a Lindsey Graham reference either)
I just composed a fairly lengthy analysis of all the 2020 Republican Senators up for reelection and how they might vote on convinction.
The site did not accept the post. Was it too long?
In any event, I am not going to re-do it. Too bad I just wasted seven minutes on it.
I’ll just name the states and people and forgo the analysis. There will be a new Republican Senator appointed for GA as well that will be up, but we do not know who that will be or when the trial would be held.
AK- Dan Sullivan
AZ- Martha McSally
AR- Tom Cotton
CO- Cory Gardner
GA- David Perdue
ID- Jim Risch
IA- Joni Ernst
KY- Mitch McConnell
LA- Bill Cassidy
ME- Susan Collins
MS- Cindy Hyde-Smith
MT- Steve Daines
NE- Ben Sasse
NC- Thom Tillis
OK- Jim Inhofe
SC- Lindsey Graham
SD- Mike Rounds
TX- John Cornyn
WV- Shelley Moore Capito
I think there are definitely 7-8 possible convictions just from that list.
Of course, will depend on the evidence and will depend on public opinion within the state.
Retiring Senators vote too
I will post ur piece later CG…..
If you have the long US Senate Post for me to post send it to me back channel…
I do NOT agree that Biden is out of it for the nomnation….Nor do I think he will be replaced..His numbers ARE holding up and he STILL leads the pack in running against Trump
If CG’s longer post about Senators up for re-election and their propensity to convict hasn’t just vanished into the ether, perhaps he could cross-post it his own prognosticatory blog (which I still read).
That blog already has a fairly lengthy analysis of today’s jungle primary in Louisiana for governor. (Only three states hold state elections the year before the Presidential election (KLM): Kentucky, Louisiana & Mississippi. The two who hold them in the year after a Presidential election are New Jersey and Virginia, in the same years as mayoral elections in, among other cities, New York, Los Angeles & Boston.)
https://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/