Joe Biden has the lead over fellow Democrats….
With Sanders in second place and Warren in third…
13 month’s out from election day 2020 Donald Trump trails the top 3 Democrats running for the nomination for their party…
A new [Emerson] poll of Ohio voters finds a very competitive Democratic primary between former Vice President Joe Biden at 29%, Sen. Bernie Sanders at 27% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 21%. No other candidate in the race clears 7%…
…
Biden and Sanders lead Trump 53% to 47% in potential head to head matchups, while Warren leads 52% to 48%. When Vice President Mike Pence replaces Trump in the head to head matchups, he trails Warren and Sanders 51% to 49%, and Biden by 8 points, 54% to 46%. …
Note…
Kamala Harris does almost as good as Biden and Sanders with the Black vote in Ohio…
image…news5cleveland.com
It’s still very, very early days given all the uncertainties (e.g. will there still be a Republic worth saving?), but this tends to reinforce what several of us have been writing before: that historically-Republican Ohio is now a close state and a swing state.
I find it particularly interesting (with a huge margin-of-error reservation) that Mike Pence, a well-known governor of next-door Indiana, seems to do so poorly.
It should be noted that Pence wasn’t that popular in his own state of Indiana when Trump picked him for VP.
Would Pence necessarily be the candidate?.We know that Gerald Ford barely fought off Ronald Reagan in 1976 after becoming President when Nixon quit one step ahead of impeachment.
Of course Trumps highly unlikely removal would come just a few months before the Republican Convention ,so maybe Pence would get the nod just because no one else would have time to organize any kind of campaign
A resigned or removed by Senate conviction Trump (very unlikely) would still be tweeting and possibly even holding rallies. His support would be highly sought after among contenders for the GOP nomination. If Pence was viewed as insufficiently slavish to Trump in the impeachment process I’m sure some other shameless Republicans will try to prove their worth to the MAGA crowd.
Or Trump would turn on the Republican Party ,essentially blaming them fir his removal(it would likely take at least twenty and probably more Republican votes to remove him).
If that happened it really wouldn’t matter who the Republicans nominate.
They will surely lose, probably in a EV landslide ,as millions of Trumpists would stay home ,or vote for some Trump endorsed Independent candidate.
Once Trump is no longer “I always win Mr. Trump” he automatically loses a ton of supporters. Once he no longer has a formal role to play, he is irrelevant to many.
(this is exactly what people were saying right before the 2016 election… “yeah I am going to vote for him. Hillary has to know I oppose her, but once Trump loses, he is dead to me. I want him to shut up forever!”)
Yeah, some will be his die-hards but much more will be willing to move on and will not even want to think much about him anymore. They will want him to go away. “Enough is enough.”
Theoretically, he gets removed from office and then he basically gets indicted right away.
Pence pardons him with the deal that he delete his Twitter account.
Is that scenario off your vision board?
Highly unlikely it’s such a Hollywood ending with Trump slinking off into the sunset and the Republicans just going back to “normal”.
I didn’t say things go back to “normal” Just that Trump basically goes way… until Friday the 13th seven years in the future when teenagers at a migrant summer camp suddenly start disappearing….
I DOUBT VERY SERIOUSLY that Donald Trump is actually charged with ANY crimes after he leaves office that would put him in jail CG…
We simply do NOT do THAT in this country…
This would apply to Biden or even Warren…
Fines…
Forfeiture of money?
Sure…
It seems that the Mueller Report basically said he would be have been charged had he not been President.
Then Mueller made it clear that only Congress could take care of the situation as long as he was President.
Mueller and his people worked so hard for so long and spent so much money… and then the day after it is technically over, Trump makes one phone call….
I repeat….”had he not been President”….
America doesn’t incarcerate it’s top political leaders…
It won’t Start with Trump either I believe…
It might depend on if he cuts a deal or gets pardoned or not.
Bill Weld was talking about this last week, saying Trump might face the death penalty. Pretty strong stuff.
I DO NOT think Trump should get the death penalty but imagine the wild boonfall that Wendys, Burger King, McDonalds would have for his last meal.
No VPs are ever really popular as VP. They do not have their image of their own.
If something were to ever happen that caused Pence to automatically become President, he would at least have a chance of improving his image. People would for one thing realize he wasn’t exactly like Trump and he could claim to be a calming presence after turmoil, etc.
The strongest possible 2020 Republican nominee would not be either an incumbent Trump or Pence though.
Ah CG?
Joe Biden is doing fine in popularity within his party …
Funny, it seems like over 70% of his party wants someone else.
But even if so, he would need a lot more than just his party to win the White House.
(His issue is that he may be more respected by Independents than many in the Democrat base. That makes it harder to get the nomination.)
I can’t see a scenario where Trump would be losing Ohio, but still winning Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin.
And despite the Trump campaign bravado there is no indication the GOP is making the inroads needed to flip Minnesota Colorado Nevada and New Mexico.
I agree with Scott.
I am not even sure Ohio deserves to still be called a swing state. It is trending GOP. In fact, I like Dem chances in NC more than OH I consider MN now a swing state.
NC ALWAYS gets mentioned as a possible swing…
But the metro area’s and college towns get out voted and it stays Red..
Obama won it in 2008.
One would assume that it would be the kind of state that would switch parties during a year the White House would switch parties.
Yes by a narrow margin (14k/.03%) in a historic election…
What happened in 2016? and since 2000?
What happened in 2008, 2012, and 2016 was that NC voted against the incumbent party for President.
Trump is that party in 2020. Who knows what might happen?
In theory, if someone like NC Governor Roy Cooper would have been acceptable to Democrats to run for President, he’d probably win in a rout over Trump.
Instead, you guys are probably going to nominate Elizabeth Warren and will need to sweat it out until the very end.
Oh please. You’d find some fault with Roy Cooper too. That fault would be…he’s a Democrat who is actually running for President. But you’d claim it had something to do with him defending women’s rights over their body or failing to support upper class tax cuts or something
He wouldn’t be my choice to be POTUS. I’m just saying he is probably the kind of bland, inoffensive “moderate” Democrat that could win easily.
Why are you so focused on me?
If he came out for late-term or post-birth abortion though, that would hurt him politically.
I just find it funny you are so concerned about Democrats nominating the wrong candidate even though you have no intention of ever voting for said candidate.
No matter who the Democrats nominate. (Sorry forgot to add that last part)
Am I “concerned” or just a very good analyst?
I’m not that concerned about the NLDS this year, but I think the Braves will probably knock off the Cardinals.
I have like 5 pretty simple and reasonable litmus tests for the Democrat nominee to have if they want me to vote for them against Trump. I am literally willing to overlook hundreds of other issues at the same time.
Please give us the list….
The GOP picked up two house seats in MN in the 2018 midterms
I believe Republicans won two ruralish seats in MN in 2018 and lost a suburban seat for a net gain of 1.
The district that Collin Peterson holds for the Democrats now from that state will almost certainly go Republican once he leaves.
However, statewide, it’s hard for Republicans to win there. They lost everything in 2018 pretty soundly.
Pretty interesting fundraising totals for the third quarter. Biden only raked in $11.6m, while Sanders got something like $25m, Buttigieg $19m, Harris $12m, Yang $6 and Williamson $3m.
I was trying to find an actual list I could post…
James,
apologies. Biden raised $15m. I confused his total with Harrus’d titsl.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/10/03/biden-says-his-campaign-raised-15-million-in-third-quarter-less-than-sanders-and-buttigieg.html
No problem….
I do the same thing occasionally…
It’s all good ….