The forecast model that’s done good ….Did get the last general election wrong like the rest of us …
The American economy (And the World’s) is actually slowing right now….
Trump is also losing in current polling in many of the state’s the forecast has him winning…
Th above does have me wondering about the whole forecast results…
A new Moody’s Analytics forecast shows President Trump looks likely to cruise to re-election next year under three different economic models.
“Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure, and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.”
“Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout. The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when it indicated Clinton would win a narrow victory.”
Here’s the forecast map as of today in the CNBC piece....
Lucky for you guys that Trump is so polarizing and so corrupt, so you have a very decent chance. However, you might pick a nominee that has fundamental problems of their own.
I also dislike the concept of people only voting based on the economy. We can thank James Carville for that. Other things, such as the security of the nation and indeed the soul of the nation should matter more than people’s economic status at any given time.
If Trump loses?
That old Carville quote will take its place on the ash heap with hundreds of others that once had validity but no longer do.
As for the Democrats being “lucky?”Might be “luvky” for you too.Four more years of Trump?No telling what your party might look that after that.
As it is,if you came to an S.C. Republican event today you would simply be shouted down as a RINO .Four more years of Trump?You would likely be physically assaulted!
Well, if I were physically assaulted, I hope somebody would call the police. Would have to be a hate crime too, right?
As for you, you would probably walk across the street to shake hands with a Republican office-seeker wearing a red MAGA hat and pledge your full and total support, just as long as the Democrat was a goofball.
Who cares what I do?
What are you going to do watching your party under four more years of Trump?
In many years you have more to lose here that many of us do.
You seem to be the only one among the two of us who thinks Trump is going to get another four years.
What would I do? Be relentless in mocking you guys for blowing a layup while listening to the cries.. “We should have offered it to Kasich! We should have offered it to Kasich!”
That little dream of yours that the Democratic Party should essentially cease to exist and happily endorse a very conservative Republican,who proudly proclaims himself so ,is beyond funny.
Indeed, you are the only person I’ve seen who has suggested that fairy tale.
Hers mine…
Why doesn’t Kasich ,who still retains some popularity in Ohio ,declare that this is a national emergency ,that the country can’t allow this fool to remain in the presidency and announce he is leading the “Hold Your Nose”movement for thinking Republicans to vote Democratic to rid this country of this “psychopath.”
Just might swing enough votes in Ohio to cost Trump the state.
Without Ohio it is very difficult to paint a picture whereby Trump could win another term.
You know that I long wanted Kasich (or someone) to run as an Independent. He isn’t doing it.
Reports now that if Biden continues to fall behind Elizabeth Warren, that Michael Bloomberg will enter the Democrat field.
That’s a lot of speculation there and a lot would have to happen for him to ever be nominated. However, I would at least be open to voting for Bloomberg against Trump.
I would too.
My God!
You and I voting for the same candidate!You voting for a Democrat?
Could the world Handle it?
We would have both voted for Nixon.
You like Bloomberg because he isn’t running. On the off off off chance ge enters the race and becomes the Democratic nominee your tune will change.
As long as he passes the very easy litmus tests, I would theoretically vote for him over Trump. I don’t need to be a fan of his in general. He just seems somewhat different than those who have entered the race and have proven themselves to be beholden to the special interests.
He would be presenting himself as the anti-Elizabeth Warren, since he does not believe she can win or should be President. That’s a good start for me. Would you not want me to vote for him?
I never said I “liked” him though. That’s fairly irrelevant.
I’m pretty sure that Mayor Bloomberg is pro-choice, which would cross one of CG’s red lines.
And if he did enter the Democratic race, the Party of the Common Man would be considering not one, not two, but three real (not Trumpspeak) billionaires: Yang, Steyer and Bloomberg.
Against Trump I am willing to overlook generically pro-choice. (I have voted for plenty of pro-choice Republicans in the past)
Just not third trimester late-term or post-birth abortions.
yup…according to the infallible scholarship of Wikipedia I learn
“Bloomberg supports abortion rights, stating, “Reproductive choice is a fundamental human right and we can never take it for granted. On this issue, you’re either with us or against us.” He has criticized “pro-choice” politicians who support “pro-life” candidates.[89]
“Bloomberg supports governmental funding for embryonic stem cell research, calling the Republican position on the issue “insanity”.[90] He supports same-sex marriage with the rationale that “government shouldn’t tell you whom to marry.”[91]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Bloomberg#Social_issues
America does NOT need ANOTHER businessman President
He’s not my cup of tea, but Bloomberg (besides being more successful than Trump could ever dream of being in business) was a chief executive of a very large entity for 12 years and his tenure was fairly popular with those he governed.
Can anyone picture Biden even running a 7/11?
He may have had the right personality and skill set to be a legislator but Biden just does not come across as an executive type, and that has always been part of his political problem in seeking the Presidency.
Biden was the the Vice President of the United States….
He would do a DAMN SURE better job then what we have right now…
I have always liked Bloomberg. If he runs though my guess is it would hurt the Democrat more than Trump.
If he runs, it will be as a Democrat.
Somebody probably should tell him though that he would be getting a late start. His only hope would be “Warren will sink us.”
True that on it’s too late for Bloomberg to run…He actually admitted that a while ago…
I never said that.
I was just speculating what would happen to the Republican Party “if” he won.
As of now,I think he loses.
i still think Trump is a one hit wonder…
Who here is willing to approach this and answer it honestly..
*If* Trump wins in 2020, he won because…..
Because the GOP was exceedingly energized by his candidacy. He understood what is important to Republicans.
Thanks for being willing to answer. Even granting the premise that he has a united party behind him (and I don’t think he does) are there really that many Republicans though to deliver him the win on its own?
I don’t think there have been enough Republicans to win without significant crossover support since perhaps the 1920s.
There would have to be something more to allow him to win.
I agree- although his GOP support is very solid.
I expect voting fraud in 2020 that benefits Trump. Trump will do what he has to do to win – even if it is illegal.
I was waiting for someone to go for the “voting fraud” security blanket.
If I ask Trump supporters what the reason will be if Trump loses, they will say “voter fraud.”
People are very alike. Both tribes are going to claim it was “stolen” and neither is overly willing to accept that they just might be rejected.
I think the last election was so close that voting interference from Russia probably was enough to change the election.
We skready know that Trump doesn’t care how he wins – and now he has the power of the presidency and an accompanied dating AG.
I think Georgia going away from a paper ballot backup was a sign the Governor would welcome fraud.
Mitt Romney had a far more united Republican Party behind him in 2012 than Trump did in 2016 yet Romney lost and Trump won. (Romney did slightly better in total popular vote percentage)
There were also less people saying they were Republicans in 2016 as compared to 2012 and will be even less saying they are in 2020.
*If* he wins again, it can’t just be because Republicans liked him, There aren’t enough of them.
I still would consider Bloomberg if he enters the race. My biggest concern about him is his lack of progressive ideas on taxes- which is an important issue to me. But there is plenty I don’t like about the other candidates too.
The strongest candidate for Democrats would still be Oprah.
I am 100 percent serious.
i don’t understand Why you think Oprah would be strong. I see her at maybe 5% of the Democratic vote.
She’d be the strongest against Trump as the nominee.
America loves celebrities. America loves “blank slates.” She has an incredibly successful bio. She is basically Obama and Trump rolled up into one in terms of appeal. She’d generate a strong African-American turnout and many white suburban women, even Republican ones have shown that she has almost a cult like hold over them. She would unhinge Trump like nobody else can, because he is obsessed with celebrity and losing to an African-American female celebrity would drive him to new heights of public insanity.
I know she isn’t running.
I see no similarity to Obama- who was an incredibly gifted politician.
I agree with Z….
Barack Obama WAS a gutted politician
Oprah …Like any Media figure would get a great head start…
But it would depend on if she could sustain the media pressure…
There is NO privacy
And she IS a businesswoman…
THAT is a NO- NO in Warren’s world …