Those four state’s have Donald Trump trailing the top Democrat’s vying for their parties choice to run against Donald Trump…
Joe Biden leads in those state by an average close to 10 percentage points…
Trump won those combined state by about 70,000 votes in total…
Right now?
Trump is lined up to job….
He’s got 14 months to try reverse things….
In a politically divided nation, with attitudes among many voters hardened and resistant to changing, the 2020 general election could be contested on the narrowest electoral terrain in recent memory.
Just four states are likely to determine the outcome in 2020. Each flipped to the Republicans in 2016, but President Trump won each by only a percentage point or less. The four are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida. Many analysts point to Wisconsin as the single state upon which the election could turn.
Shifting demographics, the growing urban-rural divide and the gap between white voters with and without college educations have helped to create an electoral map unlike those of the recent past. So too have Trump’s unique profile, messaging and appeal.
“Because of the partisanship of the country and the partisanship of the president, we are now looking at the smallest map in modern political history,” said Jim Messina, who was the campaign manager for former president Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign.
Both Trump’s campaign and that of his eventual Democratic challenger will seek to put other states in play. But those opportunities are fewer than in past campaigns.
Trump has done nothing to expand his base while in office, which Democrats claim will make it extremely difficult for him to win states he lost in 2016. Trump campaign officials disagree. Democrats’ aspirations for expansion rest in part on whether politically changing, Republican-held states such as North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona are truly ready to shift.
Current polling nationally and in some of the key states shows the president vulnerable when matched against several of the Democratic presidential candidates — though he overcame weak approval and favorability ratings to win the 2016 election. Based on current attitudes, he will have to do so again to win reelection….
The other states which voted at least once for Barack Obama but then for Donald Trump are Iowa, Indiana, Ohio and North Carolina.
Ohio is polling good for Biden/Dem’s….
Haven’t seen anything for Indiana and North Carolina actually polling good for Biden, but I doubt it actually goes there though it it’s getting closer and closer with retiree’s from up North….
I have pretty much conceded Ohio to Trump.
If he loses there,he’s finished.
I agree. I can’t see a scenario where Trump loses Ohio but hangs on to enough other rust belt states to win.
In many ways Ohio is following the same trajectory as Missouri. It’s becoming more Southern/Appalachian culturally and thus more likely to vote GOP.
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Here’s the NC/GA/TX conundrum for Dems:
TX is probably moving towards them the fastest but starts out the furthest away (Trump +9).
NC is there probably moving towards them the slowest but was the closest (Trump +3.7).
GA probably in the middle on both counts (Trump +5.1).
twitter…
Historically speaking, the other contributors here are correct in their presumption that Donald Trump cannot lost Ohio without also losing the country and the Electoral College.
The last and only time so far that a Democrat has won Ohio but lost the Presidency is 1848, when Lewis Cass carried Ohio but lost the country to Zachary Taylor (Whig).
On the other hand, Ohio voted for 8 anti-Jacksonian, Whig and Republican candidates who lost the Electoral College:
1824 (Henry Clay as a Democratic-Republican vs 3 other D-R’s)
1836 (Wm Henry Harrison, Whig)
1844 (Clay as a Whig)
[1848 (Lewis Cass, D) ][Republican Party founded 1854]
1856 (John C. Frémont, R)
1884 (James G. Blaine, R)
1892 (Benj. Harrison, inc. R)
1944 (Thos E. Dewey, R)
1960 (Richard M. Nixon, R)
Perhaps more pertinently for a swing or belwether state, Ohio’s electors were part of the winning Electoral College majority for four Republican candidates who simultaneously lost the national popular vote:
1876 (Rutherford Hayes over Samuel Tilden)
1888 (Benjamin Harrison over Grover Cleveland)
2000 (Geo. W. Bush over Al Gore)
2016 (Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton)
No pattern is unalterable; otherwise the electoral map of 1896 wouldn’t look like a mirror image of 1968, with the parties reversed.
Nor would West Virginia have reverted so sharply in 2000 to her Republican roots after being a bedrock Democratic state from 1932 to 1996. Nor would previously Whig & Republican Massachusetts and Rhode Island have voted for Al Smith in 1928. Neither would 1964 have been the first election in which Vermont voted Democratic and Georgia Republican.
See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_Ohio
Quinnipiac 7/17 – 7/22- 1431 RV – MOE – 3.2 Biden 50 / Trump42 – Biden +8
RCP….
Biden doing well….
More RCP read backs…
Back in March a poll had Biden ahead in Wisc also by 8 …No recent polling though…
With North Carolina ….Biden 51.3 vs Trump 43.7…That’s from August 1-5…
With Pa….Biden 54 vs Trump 43.5…That’s from May….
It’s too early to definitively say which states will be the ultimate swing states.
In my view Democrats have a good chance of locking down Pennsylvania and Michigan, but may still be struggling in Wisconsin next Labor Day.
At the same time Arizona may look to be a potential pick up for Democrats as well as NC. FL as we know is the ultimate.ate swing state. At this point I have a hard time seeing any Hillary 2016 states going to Trump. The ones that were the closest (Minnesota and New Hampshire) don’t look too favorable to swing to Trump atbthis point.
The Trump campaign has said they will target Colorado and Virginia but that is likely bravado. Hillary won both by 5 plus pts in 2016 and the GOP did not have good years in either state last year.
I agree with ya Scott….
Trump now has a history to run against and THAT along with his crazy assed daily rants seems to be helping the guy fuckup like he almost aways does with anything he touches….
Republicans are quietly getting nervous all ready it’s being reported…..
As I’ve commented on numerous ocassions her,Trumps victories in Pa. !Mich, and Wisconsin were so narrow that almost anything you can think of could have swung it his way.
One thing is for sure.
Democrats need to concentrate on expanding the electorate,particularly among minorities.If Hillary had spent time doing that, we never would have been afflicted with this goofball.