Right now?
It’s Joe Biden leading by almost a 2-1 margin….
Then Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren vying between each other for the second and third spot….
Then?
The lower tier people…
Yup….
It’s like THAT…
People gotta stop pretending it too early to look at Democratic nomination polls…
People will be voting for the party’s choice to run against Donald Trump in FOUR MONTHS…
The bottom is falling out of the Democratic presidential primary. And the top-tier — no longer five candidates, but three — is becoming more insurmountable.
For more than a year, Democrats had approached their nominating contest with a widely-shared belief that — like Republicans in the earliest stages of their primary four years ago — they, too, might take turns rising and falling in an expansive field. That expectation sustained the campaigns of more than two dozen contenders this year.
But in recent weeks, the leading band of candidates has contracted unexpectedly early. Heading into the fall, only three contenders are polling above single digits: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.
Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg remain at the periphery, while lower-polling candidates have largely failed to muster sustained, upward movement in fundraising or polling.
According to interviews with about two dozen Democratic operatives and consultants, there is little reason to expect any of them will.
“It was legitimate to say ‘Top 5’ for a long time, but with the exception of Kamala Harris being at the outer perimeter of the top three … you’d have to have a strange confluence of events for someone outside those four to win,” said Philippe Reines, a longtime Hillary Clinton confidant. “It would require all four failing. Like, you would need all four of them to be in a plane crash or something.”
For every other candidate, Reines said, “It’s too late in the game to keep saying it’s too early.”
…
For Biden, Sanders and Warren, the advancing calendar appears likely to compound their advantage, as early fundraising success and staff hiring allows them to begin advertising and to intensify voter outreach….
image…woai.iheart.com
A NY Times piece that asks and answers….;why does Joe Biden run for President?’….
“The biggest divide in the party is not between left and center,” said Mr. Pfeiffer. “It’s between those who believe once Trump is gone, things will go back to normal, and those that believe that our democracy is under a threat that goes beyond Trump.”
In this scenario, Joe Biden is happy to leave the big plans and boisterous crowds to others and offer himself as a reluctant soldier for normalcy. That could be enough to get him the nomination and even into the White House, where, let’s face it, he has always wanted to be.
In other words, if not now, when? And if there is not a clear reason why, maybe the better question is just why not?…
More…
If the Iowa caucuses were next week I could see looking at this field and declaring it to be just those three.
But we still have 5 months to go before voting starts. Plenty of time for Harris or Buttigieg to claw their way back up to top tier. More unlikely that someone like Booker or O Rourke or Klobuchar does. But not impossible.
Conversely we could see one of the “top 3” stumble in coming months.
Stay tuned.
Four months and counting….
I disagree Scott….
Democrats do NOT want a real shootout ….
They want to beat Trump…
Direct attacks on Biden have been looked at with disapproval …..
And the money is drying up for the others already….
Biden & Co. are praying Sanders and Warren stay in till march 3rd Super Tuesday…
After THAT day?
It’s gonna be OVER….
Well I’m a Democrat who wants to beat Trump but my vote is still fluid.
I lean towards Biden but I am also considering Warren Harris Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
I think they cold could all beat Trump. Though they would likely take different paths in doing so.
This is the only place where I’ve read that the Democratic nomination race is essentially over.
Indeed, most sites remark that while Biden is the front runner,he is a weak one and the situation remains very fluid.
Then again, we often see all sorts of weird things here.
Yup Jack!….
They’re selling the horse race….
I’m NOT….
And almost ALL of the others sneak MY point of view in in small print ….
I’ve be right before end like the others?
I’ve been wrong…
But for now?
My view is he’s the odds on nominee absent a MAJOR screw up….
And I’ve explained my views extensively here…
Recall for us when you have ever been right about a Presidential race…
That’s easy Jack….
Obama like everyone else ….
(picked Hillary at first, though)
I picked Romney early on who lost….
I picked Hillary like everyone else on the second go around..
And lost on Hillary like everyone else….
I was the one who asked. Let’s revisit, and this isn’t even counting the fact that you have been wrong big-time, on each and every midterm going back to 2010 as well.
2012- you insisted Romney would lose in a landslide and would not approach the EV that McCain had gotten in 2008- Wrong.
2016- you insisted Hillary would cruise to the nomination without breaking a sweat. You said you doubted she would lose a single contest- wrong
Trump had no chance at the nomination- wrong (so was I)
Trump had no chance of beating Hillary – wrong (so was I)
Now, you insist that Biden is a strong front-runner and is going to easily win. That should be of no comfort to anyone who might want Biden to win.
It is possible for sure that Biden will be nominated but at the moment, I would tend to bet against it. If you truly believe he has no problems right now, you are setting yourself up for a big disappointment emotionally.
Romney lost….
Hillary Got the nomination …..
Joe Biden IS the leader in the polls…
He is the odds on for the nomination …
I am saying this….
I was originally for Hillary on the second go around… I got over it…
Nothing ever happens the way you say.
Biden has a long, long, long road ahead of him.
Actually ?
Not SOOOO long….
My view is with the voting starting in 4 months? and the summer over it’s crunch time…
People dropping out confirms it..
As i have posted here?
Biden STILL posts the beast numbers against Trump…
He still was Obama’s VP….
He still cares the most of the black vote…
There is no doubt that Warren is even or slightly ahead of Sanders…
BUT?
Ole’ Joe Biden STILL leads the pac..
THAT IS A FACT….
I’m sticking with my story…
Now, you are deleting posts of yours that I already replied to….
Yes..
YOU CORRECTLY pointed out that this ole’Dog Posted a link to a RRH piece from 2017….
I thanked u and did a updated ,comment’…
with a link…
The 2017 is not the situation now….
No, what I was referring to was that you deleted a post you made about your “Presidential prediction record.” I replied to it, and then you just deleted your own post.
So, it looks more like I am just ranting now since it does not reflect that it was in reply.
You are not ranting….
you caught a mistake of mine…
We are discussing my correct prediction of a Biden win…
He, he, he..
If i’m wrong?
You and Jack hold that against me for sure…
I don’t see a prediction post in the trash list for the site…
You deleted a post of yours about the Biden matter. It took place chronologically between my two posts but in your archives, it has my two posts back to back now.
Perhaps a “technical glitch” you did not catch, but otherwise, not exactly a great demonstration of ethics.
I’m not saying Biden might not end up the nominee.
I’m just saying that I Don’t think it’s going to be the cakewalk you think.
The only Democrat in recent years that had an easy walk to the nomination was Al Gore.
While John Kerry swept both IA and NH in August/September of 2003 his campaign was near dead.
I do Not think it’s gonna be cakewalk either actually…
Scott is correct….
His critical time is Iowa and New Hampshire….
Two small states that are 95% white….
They are Not his strong points…
The media IS knocking Biden everyday…
Warren and Sanders are naturally stronger in those two states…
I saw one poll that showed that Biden was actually sharing the progressive vote with the other two in a 1/3 breakdown…
If that is true?
Biden slips thru with wins or 2nds could do it….
For the millionth time?
Nevada, SC and California gets Biden the start of the nomination which I believe will done by the end of the Super Tuesday night…
It was back in the day but, Bill Clinton did NOT win either Iowa or NH…..
And now my post, replying to the one you deleted, is gone as well. This all took place between “4:19 and 5:18.”
Richard Nixon could have used you once upon a time,..
ok…..
u are driving me crazy…
i just brought back a post and a comment…..
i cannot fund anything else ….
J0e Biden, as The New York Times reports, is acceptable (in fact the most acceptable) alternative to Donald Trump, but he just doesn’t (yet) arouse that much enthusiasm.
And, as we saw in 2012 and 2016, turnout (for both parties) is all-important, especially in that once-Blue Wall in the Bush-2004 states that Obama took in 2008 but Trump took back in 2016 (often by tiny margins):
Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina & Florida.
I agree that Biden is plain Joe..
BUT?
Myself and LOT of moderate and some progressive Democrats along with some suburban Republican women are FINE with a rest from the high wire BIG I don’t give a fuck Donald J Trump…
THAT in clyde’s a ranting wild eyed Bernie Sanders…..
We’ll take Ole’ Joe gaffs and mumbling and ALL…
Lord?
Just give us a guy who CARES?….Please!
on the turn out?
Democrats won’t have problems with voter turnout….
Every time Donald Trump does something stupid ?
Democrats and a whole lot of the over 50% of American voters that disapprove of his sorry self WILL line up to vote like the mid terms….
Bet on it!