It’s doing so slowly….
But party members in the state are worried and expect to lose more US House seat races in next years election cycle….
Beto O’Rourke had a closer then imaged run against Ted Cruz for US Senate last year and their other US Senator John Cornyn is up for renewal next year….
WE ALL know that state demographics point to increased Democratic voters ….
We don’y know hen the tipping point will occur…
But it’s coming….
Texas Republicans are sounding the alarm as Democratic presidential candidates get ready for their debate next week in Houston, warning that the Lone Star State could become more purple if the party doesn’t treat it as a 2020 battleground.
Most in the GOP are confident President Trump will win Texas and its 38 electoral votes next year, and they think Texas GOP Sen. John Cornyn will turn aside his Democratic challenger.
But they are worried they will lose more House seats a cycle after Democrats clawed back two districts as they retook their majority.
Five House Republicans have retired, including three in seats targeted by Democrats. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates them as either tossups or lean Democratic.
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Demographics are slowly but surely changing the state as an influx of voters from California and other left-leaning states move to Texas.
GOP support is eroding in the suburbs surrounding Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio, four of the nation’s largest and fastest growing metro areas. That’s particularly worrisome to Republicans leery of Trump’s popularity with suburban voters.
A Democrat has not won statewide in Texas since 1994, the longest such streak in the nation.
But Trump won Texas by only 9 points in 2016, the worst showing for a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years, and there are fears that further slippage at the top of the ticket will cost the GOP House seats and potentially a majority in the state house.
Democrats defeated longtime GOP incumbents in Houston and Dallas in 2018 and six other Republican House members won reelection by 5 points or fewer. Of those, Reps. Will Hurd, Kenny Marchant and Pete Olson are retiring, while Reps. Michael McCaul, Chip Roy and John Carter face tough reelection battles.
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Texas’s booming economy has attracted a young and diverse workforce from more liberal parts of the country, such as California, Illinois and New York.
The running joke in GOP circles is that Trump should build a wall along the northern border in Texas to keep the liberals out….
The growing numbers of young and minority voters (i.e. Democratic voters) in Texas metro areas used to be mitigated by an influx of conservative refugees from California escaping that state’s blue hue.
Maybe that’s over now as all of the right wingers who were going to have already left the Golden State.
There seems to be almost pa daily report on the change of the political hue of Texas.
I stated around three years ago that I saw the Democrats becoming “competitive “ in Texas around 2024.Frankly ,I was then surprised by Beto ORourkes very competitive race with Ted Cruz last year.
Obviously ,my prediction was way too conservative.The Democrats are now largely “competitive “ in Texas,at least in statewide contests.
The Presidency though?That remains an open question.Trump won by 9% in 2016,less than the double digit victory numbers of years past.Still, that was a healthy number.
Accordingly,it’s difficult to see a Democratic presidential candidate actually winning Texas next year and a Republican could argue that Trump is a special case.
Still, if Trumps victory margin drops to say 5% or so?Then ,it can be said that Democrats are now “competitive “ in presidential,as well as statewide races.
I’m surprised that none of this mentions the Hispanic vote. As I understand it, there’s always been, for a number of different reasons such as socio-religious conservatism, small-merchant values or competition with Afro-American Democrats, a significant minority of Hispanic voters ready to identify with the Texas GOP, a minority (or perhaps even a preponderance) open to appeals by skilful Republican candidates and organizations such as George W. Bush or Ted Cruz.
Clearly, Trump’s policies, pronouncements and actions undermine any such support. And I understand (no matter who runs immigration) that, as in many states, Hispanics compose an ever-increasing share of the Texas electorate.
Yes, you’re right that The Texas Republican Party has done a much better job of attracting Hispanic voters,albeit a distinct minority thereof,than other state Republican parties.
Much of this probably due to the efforts of George W Bush.
What kind of effect the often perceived anti Hispanic verbiage and actions of Trump will have on that Republican loyalty among Texas Hispanics is certainly a major question mark.