An ‘inquiry’ is NOT a actual impeachment trial…
Under YUGE press from the media and some House Democrats?
The Democratic House Speaker HAD to do something….
She came up with a word play announcement that actually changes almost nothing…
House committee’s have Benn investigating numerous Trump actions that have at times been against the norms for past President’s,,,,,Some of those actions could been seen as illegal…Trump has has also ignored Congressional intent in changing things and changed the way Congress has allocate funding for projects…
And he’s gotten over on most of these things by ignoring Congressional oversight efforts….
There have calls to remove him from office, but those calls are tempered by an American aversion to actually kicking a sitting President out of office, something other countries do…
The Robert Mueller investigations produced situations that Trump was involved in that sent people to jail…But in the end?….Mueller was afraid to go after Trump, a sitting President also…
Donald Trump’s reason for support is precisely what he does every day….
NOT play by the rules….
Democrats have been stewing over this since Trump got in office….
But…
Have been out played by Trump and his supporters who have stood by him no matter what he does , even if they themselves think Trump’s actions are wrong…
Increasingly they have signalled they want action and THAT has been played up by the media with countdowns and counts of House lawmakers that have indicated they want Trump removed form office even before next years general election….
THAT would mean impeachment….
There is one problem with THAT….
An impeachment is really just the stating of charges against a President or any Federal elected person…(There have been judges impeached back in the day and of course Bill Clinton was)…But the US Senate is the jury too convict….
Right now?
You would need 67 US Senator’s agree to convict President Trump of a crime…..
THAT is NOT gonna happen right now with a Republican majority of 57 to 43 Democrats…
And Democratic US Senate Minority Leader Schumer could probably NOT count on all his Democrats to vote for a conviction either….
So?
What happened this afternoon?
House Speaker Pelosi announced with a great buildup that initiating impeachment proceedings against President Trump, accusing him of violating the Constitution in seeking help from a foreign leader to damage a political opponent….
Huh?
Let’s get technical here…
You’re gonna see headlines saying Pelosi is starting an impeachment….
THAT is NOT what the Speaker said…
She CLEARLY said an INQUIRY….
Democratic House committee’s actually have been exactly that for months on various Trump actions, many of those action more serious than the Ukraine ‘play for pay’ scenario that seems to have happened …
Pelosi does NOT want a actual impeachment vote…
She known’s that while it WILL make the media and Democrats in safe districts happy?
Most American’s DO NOT want Donald Trump impeached …
And there aren’t the votes for a conviction….
Still reports are that Trump IS worried about all this and actually has a whole backroom operation dealing with the issue…
Bill Clinton’s history lesson was an impeachment led to no conviction and a BIG jump in his approval numbers…
Pelosi achieved her new majority in the House last year by getting House seats in area’s Trump won in 2016….A failed effort to convict Trump could arise more support for Trump who could and certainly run against Democrats with the headline that he would 2-0 in beating attempts to sink his Presidency…
So?
Pelosi did HER balancing act this afternoon…
But from where this Dog sits?
NOTHING has changed…
Democrats still are miles from actually impeaching one President Donald J. Trump…
Who will continue to do what his people wanted…
To do his ‘own thing’ and give Democrats the ‘finger’ while doing it…
Getting rid of him will be about beating him in votes in the Electoral College….
Not the popular vote….
…..Although Ms. Pelosi’s announcement marked a crucial turning point, it left many unanswered questions about exactly when and how Democrats plan to push forward on impeachment.
House Democrats plan to bring up a resolution on Wednesday condemning Mr. Trump’s reported behavior toward Ukraine and the whistle-blower, and demanding his administration release the whistle-blower complaint — daring Republicans to vote against it.
And Ms. Pelosi said she had directed the chairmen of the six committees that have been investigating Mr. Trump to “proceed under that umbrella of impeachment inquiry.” In a closed-door meeting earlier in the day, she said the panels should put together their best cases on potentially impeachable offenses by the president and send them to the Judiciary Committee, according to two officials familiar with the conversation. That could potentially lay the groundwork for articles of impeachment based on the findings.
But whether Democrats would hold another House vote in the coming days to authorize their inquiry — as has been done in past presidential impeachments — remains to be seen. Republicans argue that without one, the House is not truly in an impeachment inquiry, no matter what Democrats say. Nor did the speaker lay out a timeline for the committees to do their work….
…
The decision to begin a formal impeachment inquiry does not necessarily mean that the House will ultimately vote to charge Mr. Trump with high crimes and misdemeanors — much less that the Republican-controlled Senate will vote to remove him. But Ms. Pelosi and her leadership would not initiate the process unless they were prepared to reach that outcome….
image…washingtonpost.com
New Open Thread is HERE.…
Follow Up’s….
President Trump tweeted that he has authorized the release of a transcript of his July conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Said Trump: “You will see it was a very friendly and totally appropriate call. No pressure and, unlike Joe Biden and his son, NO quid pro quo! This is nothing more than a continuation of the Greatest and most Destructive Witch Hunt of all time!”
Axios: “Some Democrats are worried that the transcript will be treated as a replacement for releasing the full whistleblower complaint — which reportedly involves a series of events beyond just the call — that allegedly involves Trump and Ukraine.”
…
“Even as the House is ramping up its investigation into the Trump administration’s dealings with Ukraine, the Senate Intelligence Committee has opened its own inquiry and is seeking a quick interview with the whistleblower who filed the initial complaint with the intelligence community’s inspector general,” Yahoo News reports…
…
House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) tweeted that the whistleblower who first raised alarm about President Trump’s conversations with the Ukrainian president wants to speak to his panel, and that they are expecting the testimony “as soon as this week.”
…
Fox News legal analyst Andrew Napolitano said on Fox News that if President Trump did what he’s said he did on the phone call with the president of Ukraine, that’s a crime.
Said Napolitano: “It is a crime for the president to solicit aid for his campaign from a foreign government.”…
…
Politico: “In public, Trump world is casting the Democratic impeachment inquiry as more white noise.”
“In private, White House aides and allies say the impeachment momentum is now presenting a serious threat to the rest of President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda, to his negotiating strength with world leaders and to his concentration.”
…
“Hours after Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump after he admitted both discussing with Ukraine’s new president his desire for the country’s government to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden and holding up a military aid package to Kiev, his White House threatened to shut down work on major legislation.”
Politicalwire…
Slightly more detail about presidential threats to halt legislative co-operation, from the original story in Roll Call that The Hill cited above:
Trump called the impeachment process “bad for the country” and signaled it could end any long shot hopes for major legislation to move during the inquiry — which comes as the 2020 election cycle is heating up.
“Then they all wonder why they don’t get gun legislation done, then they wonder why they don’t get drug prices lowered,” Trump said. “Because all they do is talk nonsense. No more infrastructure bills, no more anything.”…
****
Trump still intends to sign the stopgap spending bill the House approved last week and the Senate is expected to send to his desk soon, according to a source with knowledge of his thinking. Action is needed by Sept. 30 to avert another government shutdown.
“After that, you should ask the speaker what else she wants to get done,” the source said, not responding to a question about the fate of the annual Pentagon policy bill, which is still awaiting final action by lawmakers.
https://www.rollcall.com/news/whitehouse/white-house-threatens-to-shut-down-legislative-process-during-impeachment-inquiry
Good Morning All…
Thanks DSAD….
Coverage of the first Republican debate that took place last night. Two candidates took part. Two declined.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/joe-walsh-bill-weld-swing-at-trump-in-first-gop-primary-debate
Cindy McCain, widow of the late Senator, has apparently left the Republican Party.
Political Wire quotes her as saying that today’s Republican Party is not the party she and her husband belonged to.
Look for attacks on her and the 2008 nominee from the “base”ie,Trump Cultists.
She’ll get attacked by both sides. The left-wing certainly has no problem going after he daughter (whether deserved or not) for things she says on “The View.”
Yes I anricipate a lot of Democrats attacking Cindy McCain for leaving the Republican Party.
Whatever.
No, they will attack her for other things, such as her husband supporting the war in Iraq, etc. They can’t get over that.
The only one I still see “notgetting over” McCain is the undisputed leader of the Republican Party who still yells at his tombstone to the silence or suppprt of 90% of the GOP.
My point was that people on the left really, really seem to dislike Meghan McCain, who is no fan of Donald Trump.
I can sort of understand why in some aspects in regards to her personality, but they really harp on her father as if she was responsible for things he did.
I think it speaks well for all the McCains that extremists on both sides dislike them so much.
Cindy McCain: Today’s GOP ‘is not the party that my husband and I belonged to’
McCain said she can see Democrats winning Arizona in 2020, and warned that the Republican Party is “excluding people.”
Politico…
George Conway says Republican Senators will remain silent and then vote to convict Trump and remove him from office if the House impeaches him.
Conway gets a lot of publicity as the husband of Trump counselor Kellyanne and NeverTrumper Republican .
This “prediction “moves him into the ranks of the nonsensical .That scenario is beyond ridiculous.Sure George that’s gonna happen.
Silliness.
Wouldn’t you want him to be right?
Maybe not. You don’t see to address the substance of what Trump did.
Again, if the polls show Trump tanking, Republican Senators will act accordingly. On the other hand, if he gets more popular over this, as james expects, Democrat Senators will panic and try to become his friend too.
Whether they are in deep denial or putting on a show among themselves or whatever, Trump apologists on line are happy with this. They think this will help Trump immensely (and point to recent polls they think are reliable and good for Trump) and that this focus on “corruption” will clearly kill off the already dying Biden campaign.
Do you anti-impeachment folks think they are correct on that?
I don’t think it kills off Biden.
And of course it’s going to rally the Republicans.Thats been the point.
Republicans couldn’t care less about Trumps behavior.All they care about is that since the “libruls”ie ,anyone who opposed Trump(indeed for purposes of this comment You are a”
Librul”)want to impeach him, then they viscerally rally around him.
Par for the course .Whats unusual?
Oh cow manure .
I’m just commenting that such as scenrio is absurd and you know it.
Yeah right all those Republicans are going to sit though stone facedcand slowly rise and vote “aye.” Thats corny and silly.
And of course you always try to lump the Democrats in with your party, the party of Trump.
No. I think they will issue press releases saying they will vote to convict once they the political cover, but actually I think Lindsey might be one who just wants to screw Trump over at the end with no warning.
Now, that you have seen the transcripts, do you think Trump did something that warrants removal? Yes or no? Late last week, you were saying this was maybe “fake news.”
I predict this will lead to the retirement of Susan Collins and maybe Cory Gardner. They’ll quit rather than face the voters after voting to acquit Trump.
Collins will vote to convict. I don’t think she is in too much trouble at home.
Gardner is in trouble either way. It would be in his best interest to vote to convict though.
What would Manchin do? Tester?
Tester and Manchin aren’t up for reelection until 2024 and Manchin will likely retire then.
And what does it matter?
Optimistically I can see maybe 53-55 votes for removal.
Nowhere near the 67 required.
So what?
Will the American people think he deserved to be removed or not? That will be key in 2020.
If nothing else, you can say that a majority of the U.S. Senate, including Senators from both parties, voted to remove him.
However, he was saved by his “crooked cronies” and now the American people have to finish the job.
It ought to be the easiest thing in the world to run on. Of course, you are going to have a nominee that might have problems too, so…
It’s almost like you and james think that if he is “acquitted” in the Senate, that the election is called off.
I don’t even know what you’re talking about.
I am only saying that Trump isn’t going to be convicted, yet you float around with the “constitutional “ gambit, Well Maybe Conway is right, Well maybe the Republicans will do the right thing, now it’s the election.
Will an impeachment have an effect on the election?Maybe, however ,I don’t think it will be that great either way.
You’re always bring up HHR.
I’ve been over there and noticed there are several Republicans who claim to personally dislike Trump but concede they will still support him..I’ve made the point here that even many Republicans who “disapprove “ of Trump will still vote for him.
You think any of them will desert Trump over this?
If he is impeached with the support of the American people but acquitted because of a near party line vote, and the Democrats cannot use that to their 2020 advantage…..
You know exactly what I mean.
They will vote for and they will vote his replacement too. If the party has a quick repentance and puts up Romney,they will vote for him, no matter how much they say they hate him now.
They have no loyalty to Trump personally. In many cases, they have no principles either.
Some of the same people there who spent all of 2016 calling Trump a “fascist” and “Klansman” now defend him to hilt against anything.
As unprincipled as they are, once he is gone, they will pretend they opposed him in office.
But generally speaking, people on political blogs are not “normal” so don’t use them as a great example.
I was being sarcastic of course.
Sure Trump should be impeached and removed from office.He should have been over the Mueller thing.
My point is and continues to be and has been from the beginning is that politically,
The Republicans cannot vote to remove Trump as it would literally blew the Republican Party apart ,likely with Trump at the vanguard of some new movement and taking millions of present day Republicans with him.
Not as many people are going to follow him as you think once he no longer has power. The “smart” people will stick with who is the only choice to beat the liberals.
But if Trump tanks because of the evidence, he obviously is not going to be worth the trouble politically. He will likely be indicted out of office.
Millions will and it will fracture the Republican Party.
If you believe that all those Trumpites are going to rally to Pence with Trump bellowing about how the Republican Party screwed him over?
You’re naive in the extreme.
Are they going to start (or return to) voting Democrat?
What about all the previous Republicans and center-right Independents who have stopped voting Republican or voting Democrat?
In the grand scheme of thing, the people who go to the rallies are pretty small. They certainly aren’t “millions.” There are millions of people who have or might vote for Trump who did so or would so with great reservation or submission because they felt they had no other choice.
You are agreeing with the Trumpists that Trump is their only hope and the only way Democrats can ever lose. I guess it works to both of your advantage. Times change though.
You of course know that sticking with Trumpism is a long-term death sentence for the Republican Party.
I’d rather lose in 2020 and regroup than lose for 50 years.
Then lose.
Well, if Trump is leading the ticket, I already expect to lose in 2020.
Maybe I am giving you guys too much credit, because I expected it in 2016 as well.
As in I expect Republicans to lose.
I will be somewhere between agnostic to openly rooting for the Democrat, if there is no other option.
The problem for you guys is that Warren as President scares people like me a hell of a lot more than Hillary ever did. Lots of people who think like me actually voted for Hillary.
Every realiatic Democratic nominee would “scare” you CG.
Really?Could have fooled me.
All you do is complain as to how weak the Democrats are.
So you expect Trump to lose regardless of this impeachment thing?
That’s surprising .
Some more than others.
Biden wouldn’t scare me as much as Warren or Sanders.
I wouldn’t like Biden as President, but he would have a bunch of political hacks basically running the show in the background.
Warren actually has a “plan”… for everything. (except defending the country perhaps)
I’m not complaining the Democrats are weak. I am merely pointing out a reality.
Zreebs goes further than me on that. I suppose he is a “Republican” too.
Trump has a”plan” for everything to.Just ask him ,but don’t ask him to tell you what they are.
Zreebs is probably the most anti Republican on here.
Before Ukraine, I thought Trump was in a coin toss against his weakest most likely opponent (Warren). I said so here (I don’t imagine you guys will be nuts enough to nominate Bernie)
Now, I think this will hurt him far more.
Biden should be smart enough to use all this to his advantage in the primary, but I think this might hurt Biden among the left-wing base too by association.
I want less “plans” and more abiding by the Constitution.
Well, as far as I know, Zreebs hasn’t gone as far as Scott has on wishing or celebrating GOP deaths, or advocating pissing in soup bowls about to be consumed by Republican voters as Keith has, but yeah, he hates Republicans.
And he has recently called Democrats “spineless cowards” over this impeachment thing (before the dam broke yesterday) and I think he was right.
Have you called Republicans “spineless cowards?
Maybe I missed that?
I’ve called them Vichy Enablers and Quislings. Can’t really get tougher than that…
Read my blog more. What else do you have to do on weekends?
Hate on Trump!
Isn’t that what us “libruls” do?
If Lindsay Graham does that (he won’t)) he will lose the Republican primary in SC.
Not if the filing deadline has passed.
I mean even Ben Sasse came out of whatever hibernation chamber they have been hiding him in since May to say that he has “concerns” about what Trump might have done,
Lots of “concerns”
Few votes!
The Senate doesn’t vote until later. They actually are supposed to wait to hear the evidence and to sit quietly in the chamber as it is presented, etc.
The House has to vote first. I will look forward to that.
Oh the filing deadline isn’t till March and Graham is going to be questioned about it daily.
You’re grabbing at straws,very thin ones,
This will still be going on after March unless Trump surprises us and quits early.
We might see a very different Lindsey after that… again.
I disagree…..
You cannot have primaries and legislation going on competing against Super Tuesday primaries …..
The media just couldn’t handle it…
I’m coming to believe that Jack is right…
U want the impeachment running interference for Trump’s second term run, eh?
No, it’s just a reality this will be going on in 2020. It will be over before November, probably before the conventions.
I’ve more than done enough to explain my consistent patriotic rationale for why Trump should be impeached, just as I believe Bill Clinton should have been impeached.
The media can handle it. It’s not like they have to cover two parties having competitive nomination contests at this point.
Hey Jack?
U have pint it seems….
CG going hard for impeachment KNOWING it won’t happen…But very well hurt Democrats…
George’s scenario would be the most fun though! He’s probably talked to actual Republican Senators who have told him they would do this.
If Republican Members of Congress could vote by an entirely secret ballot to remove Trump, it would surely pass.
It’s like a Saddam Hussein situation for those who don’t have the guts Romney has.
Instead of the fear of being gathered in a soccer stadium for a mass execution while a Whitney Houston song plays in the background or something, they fear Trump will Tweet something nasty about them.
Maybe so.
But that’s not going to happen.
Conway is tripping….
tripping over his huge gonads (figuratively speaking.)
You gotta admire him… Millions of husbands do.
Meanwhile House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy flanked by wrestling wizard Jimbo Jordan(InTheCult-Ohio) wants House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to quit.
Florida Sen. Rick Scott has become the latest Republican to make it clear he doesn’t care about removing Trump from office saying that if you want to beat Trump beat him in an election and complaining about the “hate” for Trump.
Count him as a “No.”
Unsurprising.
The polls get bad enough and they will all flip flop.
Do the American people care though? Including the large amount of voters who consider themselves Independents. If *only* the people who approve of Trump disagree with impeachment, you are still at over 50 percent for it.
They should. I think we agree. But they might not. They have been told, at times, for over 20 years that as long as the economy is going well, that’s all that should matter in regards to what happens in the White House.
Yes but Republican Senators have to worry about Trumpists in primaries and ,in many cases, take Scott, who barely won, thy can not afford any slippage in the GE from disgruntled Trumpists.
It can be a very narrow thread to weave,
Scott isn’t up until 2024. Trump is not going to be more popular one way or another then than he is now. Likely, far less so, one way or another.
If a Senate trial is held and the people of FL are polled and more than 50% favor a conviction (and the votes are already there.. people may not want to be the deciding vote), you may get a Guilty with a “Mike Pence is our best bet and increasingly our only hope to to save the country from…..”
Of course, Rick Scott is one of many Republican politicians who hopes to run for President himself in 2024.
Will it be a cycle like 1988 or more like 2008 if a two term incumbent is leaving office?
If a Democrat is President in 2020, and the country is not pining for Trump, the party will have already moved on.
I’d be very surprised if there were not a strong Trumpist candidate in 2024 regardless of whether or not Trump wins reelection. The rise of a candidacy like his didn’t happen overnight. His fall likely won’t either.
Well, the economy is not doing well. the unemployment rate is flat and actually higher than it was in April, and the National debt (and I think even the budget deficit) is at an all time high.
Morning….
These open threads are getting like the old P1’s…
Glad to have evening here enjoying……
The acting DNI is testifying before the House at this time…
Blog comment:
“I do not think that Trump is honest at all. If he told me that the sun rose in the East I would get up early to check it myself. That being said, his only redeeming feature is that Democrats hate him. That is why I want him to win despite him being a vile human being. If my children turned out to be like him as a person, I would have failed as a father. I would push insulin into my body until I passed out and, hopefully, died.”
Well that person seems well balanced and rational
CG’s blog comment point is Jack’s….
Most Republican’s wouldn’t care if Trump gsve the nuclear codes to Putin for some money….
They’d line up and vote for him….
I’ll have the polling update later today….
But in National polls in RCP….
It’s still….
Biden
Warren
Sanders
And Buttigieg moves ahead of Harris….
Jacques Chirac (1932-2019) est mort.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49838146
together with a moderately-lengthy assessment:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37420376
Eric Greitens never had the cult like hold over Missouri Republicans the same way Trump does over the national GOP.
Cults can be disbanded quickly.
Very few people are going to actually drink the Kool-Aid in this case,
Trump does a airport ramp presser that IS a attempt to change the subject from the whistleblower story in the media….
He talks about Mexico…Immigration…Schiff…
Ha! If Trump says drink..they’ll drink.
Yup!….
We are talking about the politicians. They are looking at polls (not much different than the scared anti-impeachment Democrats).
They are not going to commit political suicide for him.
*Early* poll on this matter:
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-americans-support-trump-impeachment-inquiry-worry-about-blowback-2019-9
Impeach Trump:
45% yes
30% no
25% not sure/don’t know
Only 33% said they were “extremely” or “very” familiar with the accusations.
“What should the consequences be for a public official who encourages a foreign power to intervene in an upcoming domestic election in their favor?”
49%- merits investigation and possible removal from office
6 % – no action
Meanwhile NPR/Marist Poll finds 93% of Republicans oppose even an impeachment inquiry.
That even surprised me.I thought maybe fifteen percent would.
Can’t ya just smell those 22 or so Republican Senators gettin ready to join the Democrats and vote to remove Trump?
Morning Consult daily tracking has pro-impeachment rising to 43%…
Opposition dropped 6% points…
Approval up 7^
Polling sidebar updated….
Biden STILL with a good sized national polling average lead….
RCP has a Rasmussen poll that is a outlier with Trump LEADING against Biden…
RCP, while quoted by everyone, DOES have right lean in polls they use in their averages,,,
The 16 Republicans who voted against the Continuing Appropriations Act (keeping Uncle Sam open) and the 3 Democrats (on the road again, like a band of gypsies, they go down the highway) who didn°t vote:
Vote Number: 311
Vote Date: September 26, 2019, 12:54 PM
Required For Majority: 3/5
Vote Result: Bill Passed
Measure Number: H.R. 4378 (Continuing Appropriations Act, 2020, and Health Extenders Act of 2019 )
Measure Title: A bill making continuing appropriations for fiscal year 2020, and for other purposes.
NAYs —16
Blackburn (R-TN)
Braun (R-IN)
Cruz (R-TX)
Daines (R-MT)
Ernst (R-IA)
Hawley (R-MO)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Lee (R-UT)
Paul (R-KY)
Perdue (R-GA)
Risch (R-ID)
Rounds (R-SD)
Sasse (R-NE)
Scott (R-FL)
Scott (R-SC)
Toomey (R-PA)
Not Voting – 3
Booker (D-NJ)
Sanders (I-VT)
Warren (D-MA)
https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=116&session=1&vote=00311
The roll call on confirming Eugene Scalia as Secretary of Labor was straight down party lines:
All 53 Republicans and no Democrats or Independents Yea
43 Democrats & 1 Independent *but no GOP) Nay
2 Democrats & 1 Independent not voting because they were out on the campaign trail (Booker, Warren & Sanders)
https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=116&session=1&vote=00313