No Republican has win the state in a Presidential election since 2004.…
Hillary Clinton won it against Trump 3 years ago by 8% points…
Donald Trump KNOWS he’s in trouble by even traveling there….
President Donald Trump has done little to expand his base since it carried him to victory 2½ years ago. Until now.
Months after telling Time magazine he would “love to broaden” his core group of supporters, Trump appeared here on Monday for his first autumn campaign rally not tied to a congressional Republican candidate. This time, it was all about him and his ability to connect with new voters.
In New Mexico, that includes Hispanics — a demographic group the president repeatedly addressed during his hour-plus speech, touting economic gains that Hispanic communities have seen under his administration and their ability to understand border security “better than other people.”
“Not too long ago, I saw where the Hispanics were up with me in a poll — up by 17 percent — because the Hispanic Americans, they understand they don’t want criminals coming across the border,” Trump told the crowd. “They don’t want people taking their jobs.”
According to data provided by the Spanish-language network Univision, nearly half of New Mexico’s newly registered voters in 2018 were Hispanic. Republicans in the state saw a 23 percent increase in Hispanic registrants from 2014 to 2018 — and Trump campaign officials said their internal numbers reflect that trend.
“We’ve over-performed with the number of Hispanics showing up to rallies each week, and the polling we’ve done today shows we can clearly win the state,” Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale told POLITICO as he mingled with supporters who arrived early for the president’s rally. Asked why he has so far refused to release those figures publicly, Parscale said it’s too early in the cycle to be parading out positive poll numbers.
But if the Trump campaign is trying to exercise caution in its effort to court voters outside the president’s base, Monday marked an odd start. As a series of openers took the stage to rile up fans before the president arrived — including Sheriff Tony Mace of Cibola County, a Latino Trump supporter — they stressed the need for a border wall and cultural assimilation. When Trump took the stage, he returned to old campaign tactics — lobbing insults against The New York Times, CNN and The Washington Post, and making broad claims about his Democratic opponents and their positions on immigration, guns and abortion….
I think this is a head fake to draw attention from stories about Democrats becoming competitive in Texas.
Hillary won NM by 8 points and Republican had a dismal showing in the midterms there.
They don’t really expect to be competitive in the Land of Enchantment.
Me neither Scott….
Trump and his handlers HAVE TO be starting to worry…..
Biden leading across the country and Warren climbing in the polls….
(They’d LOVE to campaign against Warren I’d think)
The GOP was upset at not carrying Iowa and New Hampshire in the 2000 general election, so folks like Karl Rove made a special effort to win them back for George W. Bush on the second go-round in 2004. (At the same time, New Hampshire, which had voted for Bush in 2000, voted for John Kerry in 2004.)
Donald Trump did win back Iowa last time, but it’s possible that New Mexico has slipped out of the GOP’s presidential reach, largely because of demographic changes and the GOP’s increasing hostility towards Hispanic-Americans.
On the other hand, N.M. has been the closest thing to a belwether state, only once supporting the loser of national popular vote (Gerald Ford, who won 48% of the U.S. vote in 1976) since statehood in 1912. Since 1976, she has supported Reagan twice, GHW Bush in 1988, Bill Clinton twice, Gore, Kerry, GWBush in 2004, Obama twice and Hillary Clinton.
In either case, it seems that New Mexico will go Republican in 2020 only if Trump wins a plurality of voters nationwide.
New Mexico was a slight surprise in 2004. I think it had a lot to do with Bill Richardson being incompetent as a political organizer, etc.
Of course, GWB, running for reelection, did pretty well nationally with the Hispanic vote.
It’s a damn shame that so many in his party has bent over backwards since to try to rebuff that progress.
Dave Leip’s Atlas shows New Mexico going for G.W. Bush by less than 0.8% of the vote and fewer than 6,000 votes in 2004. Gore’s margin there (as I now remember) was only 0.06% or the onec-famous 366 votes.
Those with rather long memories will recall that while the Great Florida Recount dominated the headlines in late 2000, there was a separate struggle over those 366 votes in New Mexico. The Wall Street Journal’s coverage suggested that it was far more civil, partly because the RNC was not deliberately creating noisy confrontations as it was doing in Florida. In one case (I think in Albuquerque), the Democratic and Republican recount representatives gave credit for noting some discrepancy (not in the Greens’ favour) to the recounter from the Green Party.
In New Hampshire, an equally famous-at-the-time Republican margin of 7,211 (1.27%) could theoretically have disappeared if the 22,198 Nader voters had voted for Gore instead. But a clear plurality of those NH voters were reported to have favoured Bush had they been forced to binary choice.
In 2004, New Hampshire flipped to John Kerry by less than 9,300 votes (or 1.4%).
Big correction: The GOP was upset at not carrying Iowa and New MEXICO (not
Hampshirein 2000. New Hampshire did narrowly vote for George W. Bush in 2000, but against him in 2004.A week or so before the 2000 election, Karl Rove and Republicans thought they had a decent shot of winning Illinois, Washington, Oregon, and even California.
Resources and campaign appearances were diverted for those purposes. GWB was campaigning in the Chicago area about a week before the election,
Maybe Rove had numbers that made him overconfident. It appears quite likely that the late breaking DUI story from 1976 caused a ton of conservatives to actually stay home.
Back then, they weren’t as worried about “binary choices.”
Of course Rove’s strategy in 2004 to put civil rights on the ballot in order to drive Evangelicals to the polls and reelect Bush hasn’t aged well. At all.
Well, it had the effect of causing a lot more African-Americans and Hispanics to vote Republican that year than had previously (or since.)
You agreed with them at the time on the issue on which you are referring. I understand people can change, but I guess you had a different definition of civil rights than would have traditionally been claimed by racial minorities.
In theory, I think it is better for the voters to have their say than unelected judges on policy matters. As times change, the votes do as well. That’s democracy though.
No I didn’t. I voted against the same sex amendment ban in Missouri.
But you stated your belief.
I think it passed with 86% or something like that in your state.
A lot of “anti-civil rights” African-Americans, huh?
I have been playing that clip about Hispanics all afternoon for my colleagues. We are laughing so hard at how crazy this is sounding coming from the President in regards to Cortez. He is truly fucking nuts and it is only funny because it is so unbelievable that a President can say this at a Rally and get laughs.
I agree bdog..
but Trump won Florida Hispanic vote and All, eh?
How many actually come out and vote?
Trump lost the Hispanic vote in Florida 62-35.
I took James comment to mean Trump won FL despite the large Hispanic vote. Not that he won the Hispanic vote there.
yes he did…
but the 35% was enough….
Like the white non-college…
pull from around the edges..
the piece said small margins…