We are ALL haunted by Donald Trump’s come from behind electoral college win over Hillary Clinton….
So?
We ARE gonna be treated to media pieces like the one linked below that suggest that there ARE a decent amount of people who are afraid to admit that come Election Day?
They WILL vote for the guy everyone thinks a complete failure as President…
Trump’s people ARE getting thru their days by smugly telling themselves their guy will pull another rabbit out of his hat…
(Some of them are GOP leaning pollsters also….)
Professional pollsters say President Donald Trump and senior White House officials are rightly confident heading into his reelection bid because early 2020 surveys are likely flawed.
“We are going to keep on fighting, and we are going to keep on winning, winning, winning,” Trump told supporters this week during a campaign rally in Rio Rancho, New Mexico. “We’re going to win like never before. … I’ll tell you what: We’re going to win the state of New Mexico.”
That would mean flipping a state he lost in 2016 to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. But just about every national poll and many key statewide surveys give the leading Democratic presidential candidates healthy leads over the president in hypothetical general election matchups, surveys Trump and his team dismiss almost daily.
Of course polls can be wrong,duh!
The Trump/Clinton election though was very close by the end.So while it is rightly classified as an upset , many people are overlooking that fact.
Actually the polls WHERE NOT entirely wrong for the 2016 Presidential election….
Hillary Clinton. WON the popular vote…
She lost the electoral vote….
The history is she DECLINED to heed the warnings about trouble in several states believing that she had the win…
She DID win…
The wrong race…
Every action has a reaction.
The Clinton campaign was overcomfident in 2016 and Trumo was able to win an upset.
Now Trump and his campaign are so bolstered by their win tben that they are bordering on tbe the same level of overconfidence.
Scott?
I think this piece is pure BULL SHIT in the method of Trump’s trying to sell ya bridge…
I have posted SEVERAL piece that have Trump and other Republicans, including GOP lawmakers WORRIED…
Remember this piece is talking Trump brainwashed people…
Trump is going to places he KNOWS he’s in trouble and bullshitting so the media spreads HIS reality…
It IS how he operates…
We won’t know definitively until the second week of next October…
But right now?
Donald Trump would probably lose BOTH the popular and EC vote to Bide, and maybe even Warren…
The polls were mostly right in 2016 (and Rasmussen was the closest on the popular vote for whatever that is worth), with the exception of the ones from WI and MI..
People assumed the polls were wrong and that Hillary would win fairly easily, even when the polls were not showing that. Perhaps partly because the 2012 polls showed Romney would do a bit better than he did (though polling virtually ceased after Hurricane Sandy, so Romney likely was about five points ahead at that time).
Trump won the EC in last few weeks…
According to the book Shattered and a couple of other sources, the Clinton campaign stopped their own internal polling a couple of weeks before Election Day, and instead relied on analytics or projections for various sub-groups. So when the Blue Wall crumbled into putty, they were taken by surprise.
I haven’t read any books on the Trump campaign (not wanting to read even more about Trump, Lewandowski, & co.), but apparently Kellyanne Conway, his pollstress (and maybe his campaign manager, too, although it was as hard to track his managers as it is to track his cabinet) did see opportunities around the Great Lakes, and in the last week sent Trump to all kinds of places where I thought he was wasting his time, such as Michigan, instead of what we thought would be the swing states.
And Corey has a better memory of the polls than do I: if you look at this compilation at PollingReport.com, you can see the gap tightening towards Trump, although most of the polls I scanned gave Clinton a margin of about 1-4% (well within sampling and Margin of Error) close to Election Day. At that point, comparative turnout is crucial, and the Trump campaign outdrew Clinton’s in the states that mattered most (I don’t know about comparative turnout in other states). See the 2016 polling numbers here:
http://pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm
The Clinton campaign definitely underestimated the effect of the Coney letter. Which came out right before Halloween.
They underestimated the entire issue of her email problem. She continues to do so.
Yes Republicans are real “concerned” about that.
As to Trumps various uh “problems?
Fake News, Lies, damn librul media,
Take your pick.
You seem to have thrown in the towel to them on that and left them win the narrative.
No wonder they think you guys are pushovers.
Good history lesson DSD….
Yes Hillary messed her OWN chance up forgetting the over vote count is NOT how you get elected (Gore vs Bush)….
It is the second election that actually counts…
Complacency should MOT be the Biden or Warren campaign’s mistake this time…
DroopyHat
@GandalftheB
Replying to
@NateSilver538
First, I never want to hear about the “silent majority” again. They aren’t silent. And they sure aren’t a majority. Trump lost by millions in 16. His vote deficit will grow in 20.
Second, it is likely there are “shy” Biden voters. People who voted Trump but are sick of chaos.
And we are exactly 14 months before the next Inauguration (presuming that the Republic survives) on 20 January 2021 and 34 months into the Trump Era/nightmare.