The IBD/TIPP poll got the 2016 November election right….
(The polling outfit has got things right for the last fourth elections)
Right now?
14 months out?
The same people show Donald Trump in trouble….
Trump was able to beat the early polls for a win 3 years ago, which haunts most political pundits…
But the number ARE against that happening again….
The poll that most closely predicted the outcome of the 2016 presidential election shows Joe Biden and several other Democratic candidates beating President Trump in a 2020 general-election matchup.
Biden would beat Trump by twelve points in a general election, garnering 54 percent support to Trump’s 42 percent, according to the September IBD/TIPP poll. Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Kamala Harris of California also lead Trump by three to four points, close to within the margin of error.
Among voters who lean Democratic, Warren currently has 24 percent support, up from 17 percent last month, according to the poll. Biden meanwhile slipped two points from August to 28 percent among the same voters. Support for Sanders remained level at 12 percent, keeping him in third place. Harris saw her support drop this month from 11 percent to 6 percent. South Bend, Ind. mayor Pete Buttigieg and New Jersey senator Cory Booker trailed them, polling at 5 percent and 4 percent respectively.
Despite Biden’s slight slip in the polls, the former vice president remains a strong front-runner in the crowded field of contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination. Trump, meanwhile, has begun to appear vulnerable. His job approval sank to 40 percent in August, its lowest level in six months.
The IBD/TIPP poll, which has correctly predicted the last four presidential elections, was the only national poll to predict Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton in a four-way matchup. Its final pre-election numbers placed him two points above Clinton…..
image..NY Post
Former Vice President Joe Biden has a 5-point lead over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in a new Economist-YouGov weekly tracking poll, little changed from the previous week.
Biden sits atop the survey at 26 percent, while Warren is close behind at 21 percent. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) sits in third at 14 percent. No other candidate breaks double digits in the poll.
The results from Wednesday’s survey are similar to last week’s Economist-YouGov tracking poll, which had Biden at 24 percent, Warren at 20 percent and Sanders at 14 percent…
More…
Another poll with good news for Democrats and Joe Biden….Wisc is a MUST win state for Trump…
A new Marquette Law poll in Wisconsin finds Joe Biden leading President Trump in a general election match up by nine points, 51% to 42%.
Bernie Sanders leads Trump by four points, 48% to 44%.
Elizabeth Warren is tied with Trump at 45% and Kamala Harris is also tied at 44%….
Politicalwire…
I wouldn’t consider Wisconsin a must-win state for Trump. It’s probably lost against anyone but Sanders.
Of those that were the biggest surprises in 2016, I would say that only Pennsylvania remains a “must-win.”
If Wisconsin stays red and Pennsylvania and Michigan (and Maine 2) go blue, we are looking at 269-269.
I am watching the series “Veep” for the first time ever and am on Season 5, where such an election ended up that way.
Of the “blue wall” stares that cracked in 2016 I’d say Wisconsin is the most likely to vote for Trump again. And right now I don’t think it looks too good for the GOP there.
Of course WI could stay red and AZ could flip blue.
I would put Wisconsin as far less likely to go to Trump than PA and perhaps MI as well.
2018 was brutal for Republicans in WI. There is a Democrat Governor now, Trump went after Harley Davidson, and the Foxcomm deal became a controversy.
and hopefully the Packers suck!
2018 was pretty bad for Republicans in MI and PA too. I know a conservative held on to s state supreme court seat in WI earlier this year so I don’t discount GOP mobilization among cheeseheads.
NOT gonna happen CG….
I’d bet on it….
The Rust Belt states will probably vote as one
What did I say that you think is not going to happen?
In all seriousness, maybe a vacation would do you well.
In all seriousness?
269 – 269 EC TIE….
I forgot about that part. I didn’t say it was going to happen, just what would make it possible.
I think Trump is likely to lose PA, MI, and WI, but PA would probably be the closest.
Stay safe everyone. I am taking a few days off work so I may not be here much,
Enjoy CG…..
Good talking to ya….
The four would be Wisc, Pa, Fla and Ohio…
He doesn’t need to win Wisconsin to get to 270.
He needs the other states mentioned.
i know ….
But i DO think the rust belts voting is similar come next November and a a LOT. of jobs and manufacturing jobs ain’t there like Trump promised and his Trade war is just compounding Trump’s negatives …