Joe Biden STILL holds a significant lead over the Democratic field in most polling…
He is polling neck and neck with Elizabeth Warren in some Iowa and New Hampshire polls, but leads in others…
Bernie Sanders has now moved back to 3rd place in most new polling…
The race seems to be evolving in to Biden vs Warren as we get close to the actual voting, just 4 months or so away…And Warren IS gaining ground…
She has NOT been the subject a almost any negative media reporting as Biden has….
Will THAT last?
Former Vice President Joe Biden has a 12-point lead over his Democratic presidential primary opponents as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) moves into second place, according to a poll released Monday.
Biden holds at 32 percent support among registered voters planning to vote in the Democratic primary, a Morning Consult survey reported.
Warren is gaining some steam and follows at 20 percent, up two percentage points from Morning Consult’s polling from a week before and now edging out Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 19 percent.
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg land behind the three front-runners at 6 percent and 5 percent, respectively.
Sanders leads the field in favorability, with 73 percent of respondents holding a favorable view of him, just ahead of Biden’s 71 percent.
Out of the top five candidates, Warren was found to be the second choice for supporters of three other candidates: Biden, Harris and Buttigieg. Her own supporters gave their second choice as Sanders, and the Vermont senator’s supporters said they would go with Biden as a second option.
Among respondents in early voting states — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — Biden leads with 34 percent support, compared to 17 percent for Warren and 16 for Sanders.
image..patheos.com
And if Warren had a national lead but Biden was narrowly ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire, you would be saying those states are all that matters.
Right now, we can surmise that Biden is ahead nationally. However, very recent polls from Iowa, New Hampshire, and California, all show Warren having moved ahead of him.
Frankly, going full bore on impeachment and making the Biden Family the sympathetic victims of unconstitutional government abuse is the best way to help Joe’s primary campaign, for those who want to see him nominated.
Speaking more broadly, it is becoming clearer that impeachment is going to happen.
The job of the Democrats politically will be to communicate the allegations against Trump. Frankly, it should be fairly easy, theory. This is much easier to understand than “Russian collusion.”
Lets’s wait for Pelosi before you and Republican think they’ll get their wish and Trump can be assured that the Democrats secretly want him to have a second term…
Does anyone else truly believe that impeachment = 2nd term?
I just don’t get it.
james just hates to be “wrong.” Once Pelosi signs on and Dems reach the point of no return, he will claim he was for impeaching Trump from Day 1.
I DO CG….
What’s there to “communicate?”
It’s not the facts.Its the politics.
Republicans are not going to vote to remove Trump from office.
This is just oh so simple.
Communicate the facts to the American people and see if that gets through via public opinion polls.
Either Trump gets hurt for his efforts for a 2nd term or Republicans see the writing on the wall and turn on him.
If not, then someone was bad at communicating.
Oh now I get your angle.
If the Republicans Don’t “agree” with the Democrats that Trump needs to go,it was because the Democrats were bad at “communicating.”
Cute.
Haha .
No, that’s not what I said. Not even close.
I said this should be an easy case to communicate and thus there should be an effect on polling.
Why should there be an effect on polling?
Republicans don’t Care what Trump does.When are you finally going to realize that?
And yes that’s exactly what you are trying to set up.To somehow blame the Democrats because your party is now controlled totally by Donald Trump and his “base.”
I think there will be an effect on polling.
I think Mueller’s testimony had a negative effect on polling for Trump, including among Republicans.
That was a harder case to understand though and there was no immediate follow-up, even though it was enough for me to cross over into the pro-impeachment camp at that time.
If the facts are what we think they probably are, and the American people just wind up shrugging this off, thinking a President has a right to do it, then democracy itself is imperiled.
If Republicans dont turn on Trump they deserve to be obliterated as a party no?
I am pretty sure if there is an impeachment trial, Romney, Collins, and Murkowski are already voting to convict.
Not sure about Joe Manchin.
Obviously, you need 67 votes.
Wow. 3 out of 53!
And obviously there is no way you are ever going to get 67 votes in the present Senate.
Nor do I agree that the three you mentioned are locks to vote to convict.Possibilities maybe but locks?No not at all.
No Republican is.
Trump’s numbers fall enough because the facts are overwhelming and unmistakable, then you will have a lot more than 67.
Or he will quit first.
CG?
I’m with Jack….
Since we KNOW there is no way right now for the Senate to get to 67 votes to convict Trump?
WTF would any Republican Senator stick their nexk out????
Schumer won’t get at least 2 of his own to vote for a conviction..
I believe Pelosi will announce a middle road solution of ‘inquiry’ so she can go back the CR. until the holidays and the primaries which could run the clock out and take the media off he back..
Of course Trump could wreck all of this by more stupid shit, which he is known to do …
Biden just made a strong speech against Trump’s actions in office…
I’ll have post tonite …
There is more coming this afternoon
he may win the long game but Trump ain’t having a good day today…
If the transcript and the complaint show ground to impeach, that is what will happen.
I have no idea what Democrats are afraid of beyond the reality that a Democrat as President will not be able to do what Trump did.
“I don’t know what Democrats are afraid of”
Considering John Lewis Dick DurbinNancy Pelosi and Joe Biden all came out for impeachment today you need a new talking point.
The “Democrats” here.
I’ll have to see what exactly Pelosi said.
CG?
OF COURSE YOU KNOW that polling has more American’s AGAINST IMPEACHMENT then FOR…
Democrats ARE on thin ground with this….
They will TRY to get more public support in the next few weeks…
Bear in mind?
The whistle blower was NOT just pointing to the Ukraine actions by Trump i believe ..
And?
The whistle blower is reported to be sch for a meeting with House Democrats
Breaking news:
I have passed my mandatory annual big government compliance testing with flying colors.
Professor Warren would be proud.
You don’t think the polls will not show a majority favor impeachment?
If the evidence exists as we expect, this should be an easy case to make.
Even among many who oppose it now, it’s not going to cause them to vote for Trump.
As to the claim of “well, he’ll never get convicted”
1. We don’t know that
2. Basically irrelevant, certainly irrelevant politically
3, If that happens, best of both worlds for Democrats politically, since it might be tougher to beat a brand new President Pence, who could appeal for time with the electorate to prove himself and implement his agenda
If Trump goes down how do you think Pence will be received by the MAGA crowd?
Most will consider him the only one standing in the way of the socialists, so nothing would change.
If he breaks with Trump one day, then some will hold it against him, but that will only happen when it politically makes sense to do so anyway.
The Republicans are never going to agree to removing Trump because they are moral cowards who are scared to death of the Trump “base” which now constitutes a majority of your party..
“Communication “ has nothing to do with it.
And at one point that was said about Nixon too. Remember Nixon had just won 49 states. Trump won 46% of the vote, saw his party suffer massive midterm losses, and trails in every major Presidential general election poll.
Do any of you elder people (trying to be diplomatic) think that what Trump might have done on this call is not worse than Nixon?
That was not comparable at all.
At that time there was a large bloc of liberal Republicans.
Today the closest thing you have to a liberalRepublican is Susan Collins.
In those days she would have been classified as a moderate conservative which is what she really is now.
The point is Nixon was a lot more popular (and respected) than Trump ever has been.
Keep an eye on the polls. It would be helpful for Democrats during this time of great opportunity for them to dial back on the crazy a bit too.
To see Nixon’s approval ratings while in office:
https://historyinpieces.com/research/nixon-approval-ratings
And whatever amount of liberal Republicans existed in Congress back then, was more than made up for by the number of conservative Democrats at the time.
Pelosi is reported to announce a impeachment ‘inquiry’ as exspected….
Not a actual ‘hearing/trial’…..
There is also some linkage being discussed about the DNI and Justice Dept NOT following the law i going to Congress
A formal inquiry by Congress is supposed to erase any defense by the executive against answering supeoneas in the courts…
When they served together in the Senate, Susan Collins was always considered be a little bit to the right of Olympia Snowe or Bill Cohen — not greatly, but noticeably to the right.
Frankly the last 2 or 3 polls have had her ahead by a consistent 2% points in runs with +4% MOE’s….
This is the first time in all of these years that you have ever considered MOE.
If someone was ahead or behind by 1 point in a poll, you would always insist they were AHEAD or BEHIND, “period.”
Hilarious.
Yeah have to agree with CG here.
Indeed you would ridicule anyone who pointed such out if it was adverse to your favorite.