Donald Trump wasn’t supposed to win….
He did…
He WAS lucky…..
A Real Estate entertainer and Real Estate guy who is a class A Bull Shitter who got over….
We’ve watched him become an inept President, but still a good bull shitter…
But this time?
He’s a known , with a history….
THAT IS a problem.…..
Ron Brownstein: “The latest such evidence comes in a new study released today by Navigator Research… The report examines a group that many analysts in both parties believe could prove to be the key bloc of 2020 swing voters: Americans who say they approve of Trump’s management of the economy but still disapprove of his overall performance as president. And it shows Trump facing significant headwinds among that potentially critical group, partly because of the divisive language and behavior he’s taken to new heights, or lows.”
“This conflicted group looms so large over 2020 because about half (or even slightly more) of voters express support for Trump’s management of the economy, but only 40 to 45 percent of them give him positive marks on his overall performance. That difference could be the tipping point between a coalition that places Trump close to the comfort zone for presidents seeking reelection—support from about half of Americans—and one that leaves him trying to secure a second term with positive marks from a much smaller circle. The only presidents since 1952 who sought reelection with approval ratings below 50 percent—Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush—all lost.”
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Bruce Gyory: “The truth is that Trump’s base did not elect him. His base brought him close, but what paved the road for the inside straight that secured his majority in the Electoral College, was a late swing away from Hillary among suburban women, middle-aged Hispanic men, those with some college but not a four year degree, and independents, combined with a drop in the black turnout. Trump is weaker today than he was in November 2016 in each of those demographic subsets, and the economic uncertainty and distress in the bond markets are affecting the investment accounts of those older voters Trump needs to have any chance of mounting a comeback.”
“If you doubt the accuracy of that observation go to the cross tabs of the most recent Pew data and track Trump’s disapproval ratings (48% among whites, 55% among men, 79% among Hispanics, 58% among Catholics, 55% of those with some college but not a four year degree as well as 55% of those with a high school degree or less, 55% among seniors and 17% disapproval among Republicans and Republican leaning Independents).”
“If Trump stays on his present course, he will lose next November, and political historians will more than likely come to see the watershed moment as August 2019. And so, Rick Wilson is correct: Trump can’t win, he will be re-elected only if the Democrats blow it. In the final analysis, Trump is on the verge of losing the country, even if the Democrats have not yet found the discipline needed to secure a victory in 2020.”