I’ve done Iowa update post’s here several time a month….
The ALL basically say the same thing….
Joe Biden leads in the first caucus state (Feb. 3rd, 2020) for the Democratic Presidential nomination…..And he is ahead even with the scant black voter base in the state….
Here’s the latest from the Hill…..
A new Monmouth poll in Iowa finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic field with 28%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 19%, Kamala Harris at 11%, Bernie Sanders at 9% and Pete Buttigieg at 8%.
Other candidates who register at least 2% in the poll include Amy Klobuchar at 3%, Tom Steyer at 3%, Kirsten Gillibrand at 2% and Andrew Yang at 2%. The remaining 15 candidates included in the poll each earn 1% or less.
Of particular note, Beto O’Rourke, who had 6% support in April, registers less than 1% in the current poll…
…
New York Times: “The cause of Mr. Biden’s weakness in Iowa is fairly obvious: His national edge is mainly attributable to a wide advantage among black voters, and relatively speaking, there aren’t many black voters in Iowa.”
“The state’s Democratic voters are also relatively young, and caucuses tend to favor ideologically consistent, progressive candidates with highly engaged grass-roots support.”…
…
Sen. Kamala Harris “will make the first television advertising purchase of her presidential campaign Thursday, investing in a six-figure TV and digital buy across the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa,” CNN reports….
image….desmoinesregister.com
This is the Iowa drop-in for Democrats this weekend…
Media types are writing their pieces about everybody …..
But the polls show the same thing..
Biden….
with a contest for second between Sanders and Warren…
The caucus means more to everybody BUT Biden
His primaries will be NV, SC and CA….Those states are diverse and wins there would give him head win into the Super Tuesday promise that would seal the nomination for him…
Again?
My view is that absent a complete meltdown?
Joe Biden will have nomination the night of the Ca primary….
This is certain as long as Sanders and Warren STAY in the nomination race….
iowa is really about organizing….
Less about voter choice….
Repeat of the every four year complaint
WTF does the spotlight shine on two small non-diverse states for a party they IS Diverse and has most voters in large cities?
No doubt Biden is the front runner;however he is two losses away(Iowa and New Hampshire) from becoming an also ran.Im not predicting he will lose,just noting a what if.
If Biden stumbles in both or even one,look for Harris’s stock in S.C. to rise quickly.While Biden leads here now, his support is not as deep as you may assume.Any example of vulnerability and the Black voters in SC(who will comprise around 70% of the primary vote) may decide that Harris has a real chance to become President.
There’s along way to go yet and I’m not prepared by along shot to make any prediction.
Harris polls BEHIND Sanders in SC….
She trails Biden and Warren in Ca i believe…
Kamala Harris has had 2 bounces in the polls but still remains basically i the SAME PLACE…
Up to now?
So far?
Black voters are sticking with Obama’s wing man….
Obama won Iowa by almost 10% points…
Clinton by a whisker…
SC was the end for Hillary
I’m betting the same will be the cas next year…
The SC winner WILL BE the nominee…