People have been warning about a US Economy down turn for the last 6 months….
It is NO secret…
The markets have been jittery looking at Trump’s trade war actions….
(There is a weakness around the planet also due the trade war also)
A tax cut that wasn’t , a bulging budget, deficits , and little wage gains are just being too much to keep the nation’s economy propped up the way Donald Trump is counting on to help him gain votes next November…
It’s not just about Trump really…
(Or the market, which is just a bellwether)
It’s about everyday American’s…
And things ARE striating to go sideways….
Trying to sell anything else is gonna get tired sooner rather than later….
U.S. stocks tumbled at open Wednesday after the inverted yield curve, one of the most reliable indicators of a recession, sparked a new wave of investor fears, erasing the short-lived bump from Tuesday’s trade easing.
For the first time since 2007, the yields on short-term U.S. bonds eclipsed those of long-term bonds. This phenomenon, which suggests investors’ faith in the economy is faltering, has preceded every recession in the past 50 years. It isn’t a sure thing, but it’s one of the more reliable signs that something is amiss in the economy. Recessions typically come within 18 to 24 months after the yield curve inverts, according to research from Credit Suisse.
“The 3-month Treasury bill to 10-year note curve has been inverted for weeks now and with the inversion of the 2-year to 10-year curve. The stars are aligned across the curve that the economy is headed for a big fall,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “The yield curves are all crying timber that a recession is almost a reality, and investors are tripping over themselves to get out of the way.”…
Note…
The market is down more than 600 points as I type this….
….
Donald Trump has NOT understood that the American economy IS connected to EVERYTHING…
His trade war is NOT gonna work….
It is NOW being hammered into his brain…..
And his future rest’s on it….
And so do the World’s economies…
If the country enters a recession, then its difficult to see how Trump wins reelection.
The economy has been his prime selling point among voting groups other than his hardcore cult like Republican base.
With a recession most of that support would evaporate .
If we had a recession it would be funny to see how quickly he blames it on Obama. His die hard cultists will believe it. But no one else will. Fair or not Presidents are judged on the economy.
The market fell 800+ points today…
i have been reporting that the economy is NOT what the media reports it to be…
It IS NOT structurally strong for the reasons i list in this piece…
while Trump IS right about the basic that China is after the America’s economic leadership?
His blunt force efforts are casing things to go sideways ….
The tax ‘cut’ give away and even his immigration policies along the budget busting is simply TOO MUCH…
A one term presidency…
With a Democrat doing what Obama did after Bush II…
Cleaning up the fucking mess…
Far too early to tell anything about the economy based on the ups and downs of a few days at a time. I certainly have concerns that Trump’s Democrat-borrowed protectionist policies are bad for the economy.
Nobody should be “rooting” for a recession though as james seems to be doing. Lives are more important than politics. Let’s not wish for pain to be inflicted upon any of our fellow Americans or their families. We live in troubled enough times with many people on the brink of whatever.
What does it matter if James or anyone else “roots for” a recession?
If it happens it will happen. Neither him nor I nor Bill Maher can make it so.
Economy cycles might be inevitable but we should no more root for them than mass shootings simply to generate a political response that you will find more favorable.
Indeed a recession in times like these will probably lead to more mass shootings and certainly more suicides.
You guys should hope to beat Trump through other means.
“Hoping” for a recession isn’t like turning state’s evidence. No one gets a lighter sentence from economic hardship by wishing for it.
Root for it Root sgainst it– won’t change a goddamned thing.
Arguing over whether or not someone wishes it to happen is a complete waste of time.
Well, I don’t want to see any more suffering out there, Besides, results can be quite unpredictable. A time of economic chaos might make radical populism and resentment based politics more prevalent than ever. People will be raging against immigrants and robots taking their jobs and might find a voice in Trump.
One would think that Democrats would be in a position to beat Trump without a recession but many do not think it is possible, just like they think an impeachment will get him reelected.
No one except market bottom feeders WANT a economic downturn….
AGAIN?
Some of us are issuing a warning against the incorrect narrative that the economy is Great’….
It isn’t….
To the contrary. That Trump is not a shoo in given the low unemployment rate is a testament to just how unpopular he and the Republican Party is.
not cheering at all….
just reading the signs…
The Democratic spin is disingenuous …
Bill Clinton did NAFTA…and took the heat…Global trade means low prices for American consumer’s….
And THAT gets ya elected also….
“Democrat borrowed protectionist policies”–enacted by the current leader of the GOP and supported by 84-86% of Republicans.
Nice try though
U.S. consumers spent more in July than economists expected, the federal government said on Thursday, as retail sales rose 0.7% vs. the 0.3% estimated. Excluding automobile sales, a more volatile component, retail sales rose 1% — double what economists anticipated.
Why it matters: Consumers were largely unfazed by the increasing economic uncertainty in July, defying other indicators that point to a global slowdown or recession. The data also comes as Walmart, one of the world’s biggest retailers, posted strong financials for its most recent quarter….
Axios…
Ah, didn’t we point out that consumer debt was going UP?????
With #TrumpRecession trending on Twitter, a source close to President Trump told Axios, “I’m very worried about the latest economic data. A lot of us are concerned. Without the narrative on the economy, he can’t win.”
The big picture: A senior administration official said the administration was getting a lot of blowback from retailers who were worried about the China tariffs coming in September. The delay until Dec. 15, announced this week, was to stave off these concerns, the source said.
When Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on CNBC it was to help consumers for Christmas, he let the cat out of the bag: Tariffs hurt consumers.
If Trump were correct that China pays the entirety of his tariffs, as he has repeatedly claimed, why would the commerce secretary say the decision to delay tariffs was made to protect U.S. consumers for holiday shopping?
The backdrop to all of this is that Trump knows he needs a strong economic run into November 2020.
His team is worried about polling data from Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, amid the economic signals.
That’s why Trump is getting even more agitated about the Federal Reserve. As one former senior White House official put it: “He’s running out of tools” to juice the economy.
Tax reform is in the rear view mirror. Infrastructure isn’t happening. What else has he got besides a possible China trade deal?
Axios…