Could things turn for the Democrats in the state as soon as next November?
Republicans have long idealized Texas as a deep-red frontier state, home to rural conservatives who love President Trump. But political turbulence in the sprawling suburbs and fast-growing cities are turning the Lone Star State into a possible 2020 battleground.
“The president’s reelection campaign needs to take Texas seriously,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) said in an interview. He added that while he remains optimistic about the GOP’s chances, it is “by no means a given” that Trump will carry Texas — and its 38 electoral votes — next year or that Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) will be reelected.
For a state that once elevated the Bush family and was forged into a Republican stronghold by Karl Rove, it is an increasingly uncertain time. Changing demographics and a wave of liberal activism have given new hope to Democrats, who have not won a statewide elective office since 1994 or Texas’s presidential vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Recent Republican congressional retirements have stoked party concerns, particularly the surprising Thursday announcement by a rising star, Rep. Will Hurd, that he would not seek reelection in his highly competitive district, which stretches east from El Paso along the Mexican border….
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The suburbs are where Texas Republicans are most vulnerable, [GOP Senator] Cruz said, noting that O’Rourke made inroads in 2018 in the highly populated suburbs outside Dallas and Austin, and in other urban areas.
U.S. census data show Texas is home to the nation’s fastest-growing cities, and an analysis last month by two University of Houston professors predicted that “metropolitan growth in Texas will certainly continue, along with its ever-growing share of the vote — 68 percent of the vote in 2016.”
“Historically, the cities have been bright blue and surrounded by bright red doughnuts of Republican suburban voters,” Cruz said. “What happened in 2018 is that those bright red doughnuts went purple — not blue, but purple.
jamesb says
Larry Sabato
@LarrySabato
Texas GOP Rep. Kenny Marchant to retire, opening up competitive Dallas-area seat. This is the 4th TX GOP House member in a week to retire. 3 of 4 seats are competitive. Marchant only won by 3% in 2018. (link: https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/texas-gop-rep-kenny-marchant-retire-opening-competitive-suburban-seat) rollcall.com/news/campaigns… via
@RollCall
jamesb says
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
I keep coming back to the 2018-based measures of Trump’s approval rating among Texas voters–right around 50%, including in the exits
To me, it implies Trump was well underwater in TX24–say, minus-4 or worse–where Kenny Marchant (R) is poised to retire
(link: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/upshot/trump-electoral-college-edge-.html) nytimes.com/2019/07/19/ups…
jamesb says
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
In 2018, six GOP House incumbents from TX won their races by less than 5%. Three of them (Olson, Hurd and Marchant) are retiring so far and I’d be really surprised if they’re the last.
Keith2018 says
Went to Mike Thompson’s pasta dinner tonight and Gavin and Nancy were there, and the Speaker was in an upbeat mood. I assume it was because of the fourth GOP retirement from Texas, a marginal seat too.
Yes, Texas is in play as the Republicans head for the exits, and it’s only August.
jamesb says
Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-TX) announced he will not seek re-election next year.
He is the sixth House Republican from Texas to announce he will not seek re-election next year….
Politicalwire…