While the media is fixated on Joe Biden’s age?
Bernie Sanders is 3 years older than him….
Most people aren’t….
As Joe Biden worked his way down the rope line at the Boone County Fairgrounds Friday, his campaign was dealing with what has become a routine problem.
The Trump campaign had seized on Biden’s mix-up of two words during the previous night’s speech — and that fit neatly into Trump’s narrative that the 76-year-old former vice president isn’t equipped for the mental rigors of the presidency because he’s not “playing with a full deck.”
Biden knew the questions were coming. But here in Boone, he was in the zone, relaxed and seemingly untroubled as he offered well wishers his skilled hand as they squinted in the bright sun, trying to position their iPhones for selfies with “Uncle Joe.” It’s an ease that comes of years of experience, with both crowds and scrutiny — and one that he intends to use as he continues to make his case for the White House.
“He’s just a regular guy, just like us. Wants the best for our country and our people, and that’s what we all want,” said Shelby Grabau, who described herself as a 28-year-old stay-at-home mom who works with special needs students during the year. She and her friends were much more interested in Biden’s message about rebuilding the middle class — which he describes as his “North Star” — than his gaffes…..
Biden’s candidacy is perplexing to analysts because he’s clearly a front-runner (i.e. he leads in every poll), but he’s not running away with the primary. This is true nationally (where he’s hovered around 30%) and is especially the case in Iowa, where he’s polling lower.
Based solely on the polling, history suggests that Biden has a considerably better chance of winning the caucuses than any other candidate. Still, his chance of winning is less than 50%.
I updated an analysis from a few months ago where I looked at where all candidates were polling at this point in open Iowa caucuses (i.e. ones without incumbents running) since 1980. From that data, I produced the chance that someone polling at a certain level would win the caucuses.
A candidate polling in Biden’s position would win 30% to 40% of the time, depending on whether he was polling closer to the 24% he drew in a CBS News/YouGov poll produced in July or the 28% he had in the Monmouth poll.
On one hand, this does not seem high, given that this means someone other than Biden would be projected to win 60% to 70% of the time.
On the other hand, Biden is doing significantly better than a number of past national front-runners who fell flat on their faces in Iowa and nationally. Jeb Bush in 2016, Rudy Giuliani in 2008 and Joe Lieberman in 2004 were all losing at this point in Iowa and polling at or less than 15%. Biden has led in every CNN-approved Iowa poll this cycle.
If Biden’s polling position held through the eve of the caucuses, his chances of winning would skyrocket. At this point, however, he would need to start polling in the mid-30s to become a better than 50% proposition to win in Iowa.
image CNN Politics