While she shook Joe Biden up and lit a second fire under the media for her (First was her campaign roll out)?
She is back in fourth place in the polls and even trails in her home state of California in the polls…..
Ouch?
Polls since last week’s Democratic debate haven’t shown the sort of dramatic swings that we saw after Round 1 — but they do show some shifts. In particular, they show further downward movement for Kamala Harris, who had already lost much of her bounce following the first debate.
So far, there have been five national polls conducted entirely after the debate that allow for a direct comparison to an earlier poll by the same pollster. These are the polls from Quinnipiac University, Ipsos, Morning Consult,1YouGov and HarrisX.2 Because I’m feeling a little fancy — and because these polls are something of a mixed bag in terms of sample size and quality — I weighted the polls based on sample size and the pollster’s rating, as we do for our Trump approval tracker and in our election models. Here is the before-and-after comparison for each candidate between the post-debate polls and the most recent pre-debate polls from the same polling firms.
Harris is biggest decliner after second set of debates
Weighted average of five post-debate polls, with comparison to pre-debate polls by the same pollster
| WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF POLLS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CANDIDATE | BEFORE DEBATE | AFTER DEBATE | CHANGE | |
| Biden | 30.2% | 28.4% | -1.9 | |
| Sanders | 15.3 | 17.1 | +1.8 | |
| Warren | 13.0 | 14.6 | +1.6 | |
| Harris | 10.7 | 7.9 | -2.8 | |
| Buttigieg | 4.7 | 5.4 | +0.7 | |
| O’Rourke | 2.8 | 2.6 | -0.2 | |
| Booker | 1.7 | 2.5 | +0.8 | |
| Yang | 1.9 | 1.6 | -0.3 | |
| Gabbard | 0.8 | 1.3 | +0.5 | |
| Castro | 1.1 | 1.2 | +0.1 | |
| Klobuchar | 1.0 | 0.9 | -0.1 | |
| Gillibrand | 0.7 | 0.7 | +0.0 | |
| de Blasio | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.1 | |
| Ryan | 0.7 | 0.5 | -0.2 | |
| Williamson | 0.5 | 0.5 | +0.0 | |
| Bullock | 0.3 | 0.4 | +0.1 | |
| Delaney | 0.6 | 0.4 | -0.2 | |
| Bennet | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.2 | |
| Hickenlooper | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.1 | |
| Inslee | 0.0 | 0.1 | +0.1 | |
Harris was in the single digits in all five post-debate polls and was off by nearly 3 percentage points on average as compared with the pre-debate polls. Earlier this week, I discussed how Harris seems to be stuck in betweenJoe Biden, on the one hand, and Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders on her other, more-left leaning hand. And that’s starting to show up in the numbers. If you look at the Quinnipiac poll, for instance, there’s no single group of Democrats — say, wealthy or young or black Democrats — among whom Harris is polling at any higher than 10 percent, whereas Biden, Warren and Sanders all have fairly distinctive bases.
Meanwhile, Biden has fallen by almost 2 points in the post-debate polls. It’s not clear that this is necessarily because of his debate performance; according to YouGov polling for HuffPost, there were slightly more Democrats who said the debate improved their views of Biden than those who said it worsened them. But the debates can serve to showcase other Democrats’ talents, a process from which the well-known Biden stands more to lose than to gain. Keep in mind, though, that Biden recovered almost entirely from what was a much bigger polling slump after the first debate….
image….national journal.com
As everyone here knows, I place far less emphasis n these “ debates” than others here.
Harris’s loss of her “ bounce” shows nothing to me than the irrelevance of these shows.Indeed, nothing has really changed for any candidate after these two spectacles.
The lineup remains where it was before they took place.
Harris remains a very viable candidate and ,as I will continue to point out, could become a leading candidate very quickly if Biden falters, particularly in the southern primaries.