As Trump doubles down on his racist based 2020 re-election campaign?
He appears to be throwing away even more support from white voters that had wanted to vote him…
Interviews with white , educated, suburban women have revealed a softening of support for Trump and some Republican lawmakers who are mute to Trump’s actions…
“I just don’t like the way he talks about other people,” Evans, a 79-year-old retired data entry supervisor, said recently as she walked through a shopping mall in Brookfield, Wisconsin, days after Trump fired off a racist tweet at Democratic congresswomen.
The president’s recent return to racial politics may be aimed at rallying his base of white working-class voters across rural America. But the risks of the strategy are glaring in conversations with women like Evans.
Many professional, suburban women — a critical voting bloc in the 2020 election — recoil at the abrasive, divisive rhetoric, exposing the president to a potential wave of opposition in key battlegrounds across the country.
In more than three dozen interviews by The Associated Press with women in critical suburbs, nearly all expressed dismay — or worse — at Trump’s racially polarizing insults and what was often described as unpresidential treatment of people. Even some who gave Trump credit for the economy or backed his crackdown on immigration acknowledged they were troubled or uncomfortable lining up behind the president.
The interviews in suburbs outside Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Detroit and Denver are a warning light for the Republican president’s reelection campaign. Trump did not win a majority of female voters in 2016, but he won enough — notably winning white women by a roughly 10 percentage-point margin, according to the American National Election Studies survey — to help him eke out victories across the Rust Belt and take the White House.
Since then, there are few signs Trump has expanded his support among women. The 2018 midterms amounted to a strong showing of opposition among women in the suburbs, registering in unprecedented turnout overall, a Democratic House and a record number of women elected in statehouses across the country….
From CG’s Political Prognostications blog last Sunday (the day after his weekly political review):
Nebraska State Senator John McCollister
Via Twitter:
“The Republican Party is enabling white supremacy in our country. As a lifelong Republican, it pains me to say this, but it’s the truth. I of course am not suggesting that all Republicans are white supremacists nor am I saying that the average Republican is even racist.
What I am saying though is that the Republican Party is COMPLICIT to obvious racist and immoral activity inside our party.
We have a Republican president who continually stokes racist fears in his base. He calls certain countries “sh*tholes,” tells women of color to “go back” to where they came from and lies more than he tells the truth.
We have Republican senators and representatives who look the other way and say nothing for fear that it will negatively affect their elections. No more. When the history books are written, I refuse to be someone who said nothing.
The time is now for us Republicans to be honest with what is happening inside our party. We are better than this and I implore my Republican colleagues to stand up and do the right thing.
We all like to cite Abraham Lincoln’s Republican lineage when it is politically expedient but NOW is the time to ACT like Lincoln and take a stand.”
— posted by Corey @ Sunday, August 04, 2019
http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2019_08_04_archive.html
May the ‘Force’be with this guy…
First Read: “For all of the discussion about whether Democrats can win Texas in 2020, or whether they have solid chances to flip Senate seats in Arizona and Georgia, one demographic development has become crystal clear: President Trump is losing America’s suburbs.”
“In the six national NBC/Wall Street Journal polls conducted this year, Trump’s job rating has been underwater among suburban residents — with just one exception.”
“And what do Arizona, Georgia and Texas have in common? They have lots of suburban voters — either outside one major metropolitan area (in the cases of Arizona and Georgia), or outside multiple major cities (regarding Texas).”…
Politicalwire…
I repeated a quote last week about how Sunbelt suburbs in Houston, Dallas, Phoenix and Atlanta are voting more like the ones in Chicago or Philadelphia.
If that plays out it definitely puts Arizona in play for 2020. Possibly Georgia and Texas depending on how fast these changes are occuring.
Due to the nature of the Electoral College we put a lot of focus on individual swing states, but broader changes like the shift of blue collar whites from Dem to GOP in 2016 occurred in many states across the country –not juat the ones where it made the razor thin difference (WI, MI, PA)
Similarly if sunbelt suburbs that used to be ruby red are seeing demographic changes and trending purple to blue at a quick clip that will be seen all over–and could be the lynchpin for a Democratic victory in a few select states the same way that the much ballyhooed “white working class” waa for Trump in 2016.
There are stories EVERYDAY about Texas turning Blue….Not Purple….
I’m doubtful….
But I’de like to be wrong…
Texas going Democratic for President next year would a hill Trump couldn’t get over….
Reminder….
People talk about Trump’s approval number….
They conveniently FORGET his DIS-approval number…..
Well, I mean if ones “approval “is between 38-45% ,essentially where Trumps has been since his term began, then one can assume that between 55-60% or so either “Disapprove “ or are “unsure.”
That’s never a good place to be.
Yes Jack…..
Can’t be good and the guy thinks he can pull another EC win out of the hat….
Heck?
Half the people i talk to seem to think he CAN….
I don’t…
but his crazy assed win has us all STILL scratching our heads, eh?
I also see it as highly unlikely, but if Texas is competitive next year then it’s all but certain Arizona is already in the bag, and possibly Georgia too.
It will be the same dynamic at work in all three states. If it’s enough to make Texas close but not flip there’s still a good chance the strategy already worked by pulling AZ, NC and GA over the line.
Florida I simply don’t trust. Too many old conservative farts moving down there to temper the growrh among the young and minorities
Texas is to Republicans essentially what California is to the Democrats.
Imagine if California all of a sudden became competitive?
For a long time we heard that conservatives were fleeing California and relocating to Texas.
Thus helping to keep the state red. At this pointvtgwt well may be dry though. All the Republicans who were going to leave may have already gone!
I wonder when the last time was Republicans thought they had a chance at California. I know Bob Dole was campaigning there in 1996 when he fell off a stage so they must have thought it wasn’t put of reach then.
As to Texas the last time I think Democrats thought they had a crack at it was 1988 when TX Senator Lloyd Bentsen was picked as VP. Texans overwhelmingly chose Bentsen–to go back to the Senate–but at the Presidential level it was a landslide for Republican GH W Bush.
Last week there are officially more registered Democrats in Orange County California than Republicans. Orange County, the birthplace of the John Birch Society and some of the craziest Republicans in Congress (all gone now).
We can thank Pete Wilson for his self serving proposition on immigration that inflamed the Hispanic population of California and sunk the GOP into third place behind registered independents.
As far as racism and the Republican Party is concerned, my opinion on that subject is well known. Republicans have used racism and fear of “others” for over 50 years to win elections. Trump has taken it to a new extreme, and he is literally getting people killed.
So, while it is “heartening” to read that life long Republicans are condemning this silent acceptance of racism, it’s time they do something about it and vote to remove Trump from office by voting for the only candidate who has the opportunity to beat the racist-in-chief.
I am also appalled that George W. Bush has been silent on the rhetoric coming from the White House. Time for him to speak up and help remove this scourge from office to save the country and his party.
Past President tend to not knock other members of the club..
Good to hear from ya Keith….
Keep up the good work!
What “good work” is he doing?
And if we can go back to the days of the John Birch Society for things, then why not…..?
He’s working on getting out the vote….
THAT IS ….Good Work….
Where? Who is voting right now?
I just know his most *recent* history was costing Hillary votes in Ohio because he went around insulting people there and then seeing Democrats lose special elections for the House he promised they would win because he gave money to.
But maybe he can help Steyer to a surprise showing in Iowa.
Voter registration campaigns are going on ALL around the country RIGHT NOW….
Obama and Eric Holder have lent their support to the efforts….
The efforts go on while GOOer suppression efforts are fought in the courts….
The last time Texas voted Democratic was for Carter’s first election in 1976.
The last Republican that California voted for was George H.W. Bush on his first try in 1988 (completing a 9 out of 10 GOP run stretching all the way back to Eisenhower-Nixon in 1952).
But, as Keith says and I remember, Gov. Pete Wilson, running for re-election in 1994, won a temporary GOP victory, but lasting GOP ruin, in the Golden State by campaigning hard for the nativist Calif. Proposition 187, earning the deep and lasting enmity of California’s inevitably-growing Latino electorate.
I agree with ya Scott on Florida….
i remember discussing Fla with Daniel ….
He talked about the I95 Democrats….
Even after Hurricane Maria and the influx from Puerto Rico …..
These things good for Democrats???
No….
Trump and Scott win there….
The date could actually be going Red?
I just noticed the late afternoon discussion while I was answering work mail. So, a couple of things and then I have to get ready for an event tomorrow in San Francisco.
First, James, I fully understand that most past Presidents stay away from negative comments concerning their successors. But, I am sure that you will agree that these are unusual times that call for unconventional measures. It is past time for George Bush to speak up, not simply for his country but for the future of the Republican Party.
Second, thank you for your kind words about the work I have been doing. Starting with the last election I began working for a small consulting firm and concentrating on fundraising. It’s been rewarding and we have been very successful. I intend to help with the registration campaigns next Spring and will be facilitating a fundraiser for one of those efforts at the end of the month (right before we go on vacation to the UK, soon to be known as England). The husband’s second cousin is standing for Parliament, he’s a Lib Dem running for a Tory seat. I should get some great gossip.
But my proudest work was last November helping to turn Orange County blue. Orange County is really a reflection of upscale suburbs with college educated populations turning blue because they see the Republican Party as a bunch of intolerant old fat white men — and, of course, they are intolerant and have no plans to change anytime soon. The movement in the polls I have seen, especially in places like the Midwest, but even Georgia and Texas is amazing.
Now, I usually let many of the comments from my obsessed stalker pass since he appears to be very unhappy these days. But, let me correct the record.
First, he seems to infer that “going back to the John Birch days” would somehow be a good thing, and I find that amazing. In fact, I would love to hear Jack and Dave’s thoughts on that statement. Because, when I think of the Birch Society I think of billboards with messages like, “Impeach Earl Warren,” opposition to Brown vs the Board of Education, Civil Rights, and basically crazy ass right wing Congressmen like Bob Dornan, William Dannemeyer, and Duke Cunningham.
Second, he has returned to his assertion that I some how lost Hillary Clinton the State of Ohio because I got into a verbal and pushing match with some rather rude and obnoxious old white Trump supporters while I was out canvassing for Hillary, and at one point when my brother-in-law and I were distributing lawn signs for Hillary at a farmers market. I didn’t approach them, they approached me, with such anger for a stranger that I felt like a person of color back in Birmingham in the 1960’s rather than the Midwest in 2016. It was then I realized that Hillary was in trouble in the election, given the anger in the faces I was looking into, and the outrageous things coming out of their mouths. Those old fat white men and women had eight years of a black guy, they weren’t about to have a woman, especially one they had been conditioned to hate.
Third, I don’t ever remember promising an election win for anyone, although I have considered some people sure losers. But, I subscribe to the theory that if you don’t compete, you can’t win. And over the last eighteen months I have won more than lost. I raised a considerable amount of money for Conor Lamb in his Pennsylvania special election (he would make a perfect future Senator for the State) and recall how we were told Conor would lose in the November election — he won in a walk, in fact the whole Democratic Party in Pennsylvania came roaring back. It is true my fundraising efforts for Jon Ossoff in Georgia didn’t pay off, but the Democrats took the seat in November and I think Ossoff’s campaign paved the way for that win. Compete everywhere, even if you lose, it’s called party building.
Finally, I am having fun and making money (that I usually turn around and give to another campaign or to charity), but I am doing what I consider to be the most important job of all — working to beat Donald Trump. I have sort of set aside next year for that little job — and so have at least 30 of my friends from DC, Chicago, and California. We are all going to spend next Fall in a swing state.
Keep at Keith…..
Obama HAS come out with some veiled disses at Trump…
But the club members tend to stick to hands off…
The hate against the Clinton’s HAS been there for decades and is back from Trump…
Sending Trump out of office is the paramount goal for Democrats…Bar NONE….
Rick Scott won by 10,000 votes out of over Eight Million cast (a little over 1%).
Florida is still a competitive state.
In my view, Democrats still have a Much better chance there than they do in Texas despite all the recent talk about Texas turning blue.
I still believe that is six to eight years out.
oh, I’m NOT saying Democrats can’t win Florida…
But they will HAVE to not assume they have ‘in the bag’…..
I agree on the Texas view with ya….
First Wendy Davis…
Then Beto….
No Joy….
Davis is running for a house seat and Dem’s want Beto to switch to the US Senate race…
I don’t know anybody,certainly not me, that would ever say Florida, which has been aswing State for awhile now, is “in the bag for anyone.
Oh I agree Florida is much.more of a swing state than Texas is at this point. It also seems to be consistently so. Doesn’t seem to be moving one way or the other.
According to Dave Leip’s Atlas of Presidential elections, Florida has had close margins of victory in most of the elections since liking Ike in 1952 & 1956. The big exceptions are GOP landslides for Nixon in 1972 and for Reagan & Geo. H. W. Bush from 1980 to 1988.
1960 3.0% R -Nixon (v JFK)
1964 2.3% D – LBJ (v Goldwater)
1968 9.6% R – Nixon (v Humphrey)
1972 44.1% R – Nixon (v McGovern)
1976 5.3% D – Carter (v Ford)
1980 17.0% R – Reagan (v Carter)
1984 30.7% R – Reagan (v Mondale)
1988 22.4% R- Geo. H. W, Bush (v Dukakis)
1992 1.9% R – Geo. H. W. Bush (v W. Clinton)
1996 5.7% D – W. Clinton (v Dole)
2000 0.01% R – Geo. W. Bush (v Gore)
2004 5.0% R – Geo. W. Bush (v Kerry)
2008 2.8% D – Obama (v McCain)
2012 0.9% D – Obama (v Romney)
2016 1.2% R – Trump (v H. Clinton)
Thanks DSD on the Florida history….
I guess two terms of Obama made me think it was more Democratic friendly
Weird comment
Let me see ,over the past 27 years, Florida has voted for the Republican presidential candidate 3 times, the Democratic candidate 3 times and in 2000 it was essentially tied (with Bush getting 500 more votes).
Florida is literally the very definof a swing state.
I didn’t realize that LBJ only bear Goldwater by 2 points in Florida. In the 60s though Florida was probably more “old South” than it 2as a couple decades later.
Yes it was, particularly the northern and panhandle parts.
There were many racial clashes in St. Augustine in the early sixties.
To this day, the panhandle resembles the Deep South much more than the rest of Florida.
Yeah I’ve vacationed a few times in Destin and Pensacola. They call it LA (Lower Alabama)
The Democratic lean I would assume is in South Florida…..
I’ve forgotten vast swathes of that Florida political geography I learned during the Great Recount of 2000, but those who have a better command can see Florida voted in 1964 by county here (using Dave Leip’s traditional Blue for GOP and Red for Dems):
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=1964&fips=12&f=1&off=0&elect=0
Besides the northwest Panhandle, there’s a huge swath of Goldwater territory running down the middle surrounded by some (though far from all) coastal counties that voted Democratic.
Broward (Ft Lauderdale), Palm Beach, Sarasota and Orange counties went for Barry. On the Gulf Coast, Tampa-St. Pete (Pinellas & Hillsborough counties) voted for LBJ, but Lee County (Ft Myers) voted Republican. Dade County (Miami) voted for LBJ by 64 % to 36 %. Duval county (Jacksonville) voted very narrowly for Goldwater against LBJ. Léon County (Tallahassee) in the Panhandle touching Georgia, voted heavily for Goldwater.
I can’t see much pattern along the I-4 Corridor, though others might (I presume it was far less densely settled in 1964).
Some things, of course, have changed in 55 years. Orange County (Orlando) had not yet been taken over by Disneyworld and its satellites, while I would guess that the proportion of first-generation Cuban refugees eligible to vote in Miami differs now from what it was in 1964.
While I’ve never visited the Sunshine State, Jack and others who have could probably put this in much clearer order.