They seem to be telling different stories….
Most show Joe Biden with 10+ point lead over the Democratic field….
One poll has Elizabeth Warren behind him by 1% point….
The Real Clear Politics (RCP) average had Warren in second place early this week, but she is now back in third …
One poll has Bernie Sanders leading Joe Biden by 6% points…
Most pundits and media political types have used the RCP average as the standard which has Biden with a high single digit lead….
Trying to figure out the state of the Democratic presidential race? Get in line.
Public opinion surveys have varied by the day, particularly in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire, where some candidates can point to individual polls to argue they are building momentum.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has held a relatively steady lead in national polls, though an Economist/YouGov poll this week found him holding just a one-point lead over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).
A poll from The Hill/HarrisX found Biden with a healthier 15-point lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who stood in third place in the Economist poll. Warren was further behind, winning 10 percent support compared to 31 percent for Biden and 16 for Sanders.
Most polls have found Biden with a lead in New Hampshire, though a Gravis poll this week put Sanders in first place.
A Monmouth poll found Sanders trailing badly in Iowa, behind not only Biden and Warren but also Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.).
The different signals in the polls has even experts questioning who is up, who is down, and whether the horse race surveys can be trusted.
Anxiety is also growing among the campaigns, as candidates and aides rush to highlight their incremental gains or question surveys that show them losing support.
Some say the political amateurs and professionals should just give it a rest when it comes to polls.
“It’s August of 2019, the horse race polls are absolutely worthless,” said Chris Kofinis, a Democratic pollster.
Pollsters interviewed by The Hill defended their findings and methods, even as they warned against reading too much into their results….