Why?
His disapproval numbers…
Turnout of voters next November….
Since March, the last time the NBC/WSJ poll asked this question, the “definitely” pro-Trump number increased by 2 points, but the definite voters for the Democrat increased by 8 points. Other polls conducted this year pegged the definite-Trump number as low as 28 percent and as high as 39 percent, while the definitely-oppose number ranged from 43 to 56 percent, with some variance in how the question was phrased.
In terms of approval ratings, the NBC/WSJ poll found Trump at 43 percent approval among all adults (29 percent strongly approved, 14 percent somewhat) and 55 percent disapproval (44 percent strongly, 9 percent somewhat)….
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Obviously, it matters who Democrats nominate, but it is far more likely than not that Trump will do better in the Electoral College vote than the popular vote (the GOP vote is more efficiently spread around the states, with fewer “wasted” votes). The popular vote is a good way to see how significant Trump’s challenge is. In 2016, while losing the national popular vote by 2.9 million votes (2.1 percentage points), he eked out an Electoral College win by the narrowest of margins, fewer than 78,000 votes spread across three states. So a Democrat might have to win the popular vote by 3 or 3-and-a-half points to be reasonably confident of winning at least 270 electoral votes as well….
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Based on the level of interest in the upcoming election, turnout is likely to be very high, perhaps the highest presidential-year turnout in modern history. In 2016, turnout was 60 percent, roughly comparable to the last few election cycles. But last year’s midterms had the highest turnout since 1914. When turnout is very high, the electorate is more likely to resemble the universe of all registered voters….