The same model from Rachel Bitecofer @ Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy actually got the 2108 Presidential election result correct…
Here’s her explanation and call….
In July of 2018, my innovative forecasting model raised eyebrows by predicting some four months before the midterm election that Democrats would pick up 42 seats in the House of Representatives. In hindsight, that may not seem such a bold prediction, but when my forecast was released, election Twitter was still having a robust debate as to whether the Blue Wave would be large enough for Democrats to pick up the 23 seats they needed to take control of the House of Representatives and return the Speaker’s gavel to Nancy Pelosi….
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The post-election diagnostics of my forecasting model, which departs significantly from the approaches used in conventional election forecasting models, such as those used by FiveThirtyEight, reveal just how powerful my model was at identifying the House districts and Senate races capable of producing Blue Wave effects powered by Trump backlash in the electorate….
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Because my 2020 model relies on the 2018 vote to estimate the 2020 vote, it is naturally designed to account for this unexpected bipartisan turnout surge. As such, my expectation is the 2020 model will be better than the 2018 model, which was built with Virginia’s one-sided Democratic turnout surge as a turnout guide.
So, with no further ado:
Barring a shock to the system, Democrats recapture the presidency. The leaking of the Trump campaign’s internal polling has somewhat softened the blow of this forecast, as that polling reaffirms what my model already knew: Trump’s 2016 path to the White House, which was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker, is probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate. And that is really bad news for Donald Trump because the Blue Wall of the Midwest was then, and is now, the ONLY viable path for Trump to win the White House.
Any prognosticator or prognosticatirx who expresses such pride, confidence, superiority and absolute certainty in his or her own system (as opposed to all those faulty models. immediately arouses my intense suspicion because you’re only infallible until you’re not
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We’ve already seen James Zogby, Scott Elliott (the Blogging Caesar at http://www.electionprojection.com ), RealClearPolitics, Andrew Tannenbaum (the Votemaster at http://www.electoral-vote.com ), and even Larry Saboto’s Crystal Ball miss the bus, often after having predicted a previous election with unusually-great accuracy.
ok..
I agree she IS patting HERSELF on the back heartily….
But few, if ANYBODY called 2018 for Donald Trump WTF out….
And ur list of people defiantly din’t…
Sure she COULD get her call wrong…
But i hope she has a streak going!
Yes, “prognosticators “ are a dime a dozen.
I pointed out right after a Trumps election though that a change of a mere 60 000 or so votes in Pa. Mich. and Wisconsin. would have resulted in a Hillary Clinton presidency.
So there’s a lot of truth in saying that Trump,as this piece points out, drew a near Royal Flush.It is likely not possible to totally replicate that day in Nov. 2016.
It is noteworthy that the Democrats appear much more motivated than then ,when Hillary’s election was widely assumed to be assured,that there is almost no evidence that Trump has expanded his “ base,”and ,because of the particularly rabid negative feelings that Trump arouses, there is likely to be a significant increase in voters partipation next year.
Does all this add up to sure defeat? No,but it does likely mean that ,once again, he is going to have to draw that Royal Flush .
My present view is that Trump is probably not in position to “ win” the race by his own devices,but the Democrats by their choice of candidates and issues could lose it.Carrying the poker metaphor one step further,the Democrats could “ fold” on three of a kind while Trump is only holding a pair.
I myself have been saying Trump is a one termer….
We all hone in on the same basic’s…
the margin of electoral vote victory in just a few states,..
Running against lack luster candidate after Obama ….
Trump as P.T.Barnum….
Hillary Clinton as a woman….
Right now?
Even with his predictable gaff’s?
Joe Biden is almost 10% points ahead of Trump in the polling a year and a half out…
as said here
the guy seems to think he can replicate the 2016 win…
But?
He, like Biden?
HAS A HISTORY
We KNOW WTF he IS!
Piled on top of this stuff is Trump’s camp’s own internal polling showing him losing!
Again?
I hope this women gets her call right again!
this country and the world will have had enough of the NYC Real Esyate and Snake Oil salesman…
Right after the election, Kellyanne Conway was asked what the Trump campaign would have done, had it not seen its most-likely path (partly thanks to Hillary Clinton’s neglect) as breaching the Blue Wall in the Rust Belt.
She said that they would have tried some other plan, beginning with flipping their next targets, Minnesota and New Hampshire (both of which voted Blue in 2004 2008, 2012 & 2016).
And it’s not that hard to see a Trump’20 campaign squeaking through even after conceding the Blue Wall (but not Florida) to the Democrats.
Suppose that the Democrats take back all the Obama’12 states but Florida (29 electors): i.e. Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10) and Iowa (6).
Total D 302: R 236 meaning that Trump needs another 34 electors to rerain the magic minimum of 270.
It’s at least conceivable that the President could still get re-elected by keeping Florida and flipping all of these Obama-Clinton states: Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5) [subtotal 269-269] plus any or all of these states: New Hampshire (4), Maryland (10) and Delaware (3).
After all, no one except Kellyanne Conway and few other very smart Trump campaign experts foresaw Trump smashing the Blue Wall around the Great Lakes. And my distinct impression is that Brad Parscale, Trump’s re-election campaign manager, is at least as smart and well-informed as Kellyanne Conway in 2016.
While Maryland & Delaware have voted Democratic in every Presidential election since 1990, all of the others voted for George W. Bush at least once (2000 and/or 2004).
You can play with your own state-by-state predictions at https://www.270towin.com/
¶ Now I’m certainly not predicting the 2020 electoral map, nor do I believe it would look like that.
But I’ve tried to show that anyone who predicts Nov. 2020 with any pretence of certainty is (if not just a fool) not yet to be believed.
Let me question your scenario DSD….
Right now mind you….
Biden BEATS Trump in PA, OH, Mich , Wisc, NH, and Iowa….
Biden leads Trump by the least in Fla. and Nev
I can’t find polls for NM,Maryland, or Del….But Biden WILL carry Del…
So I’m with the projection model that shows Trump LOSING….
Trump isn’t gonna get VA
Oh, I’m certainly leaning towards scenarios (scenarii ?) that show Biden retaking the White House (although the Senate is far harder to flip).
And my entirely hypothetical sketch was drawn just to outline a point.
It already concedes giving the Great Lakes/Rust Belt states (including Ohio, but not Indiana) plus Iowas back to the Democrats. But it shows that (certainly 18 months from now, when no one can tell what happens in between) it’s not entirely impossible to construct a Trump-winning scenario without any of those states. If he loses Florida, however, it does become nearly impossible.
¶ I was one of only two regular contributors here who declined to exclude at at least some chance of Trump winning in 2016. Everyone else here (supported by almost all the polls) was sure that Hillary had it in the bag.
Hillary herself was so sure that her campaign stopped doing real, actual polling in those key Blue Wall states several weeks before November, relying instead on “metrics|” and models that proved to be inaccurate. The Trump campaign read those states differently and sent Donald Trump speaking in many of them in the very last weekend. Like everyone else, I wondered why he was wasting so much effort in an unproductive task, but the election results showed us why.
Anyway, deeply as I dread the prospect of Four More Years, I think it’s incredibly arrogant and foolish to claim that one’s own model is so much better than any other that it can predict with near-absolute certainty that the President will not be re-elected.
He, he, he….
She got me and others to front her stuff….
Pretty good marketing
Shill
There has been a proliferation of new polling outfits over the past few cycles often of dubious quality.
Nate Silver took pa slap at them yesterday ,noting that most were online polls and that their methodology has not been refined enough to test their accuracy.
He also correctly notes though that they are quoted frequently here and elsewhere.He hints that they should be viewed skeptically.
I,for one, do.
Good ole Nate has dropped down a peg for me….
For a few months he was in the bag for Sanders…
That’s his business…
And he’s correct on some of the ragtag outfits…