To keep his job?
Donald Trump needs to to duplicate what hey did 2 years ago….
Not give a shit about HOW MANY votes he gets….
Do get votes from states that would again give him more than 270 Electoral Votes…
It’s the WHERE they come from….
In the wake of President Donald Trump’s tweets suggesting several nonwhite progressive congresswomen “go back” to their countries — three of them were born in the U.S. — it’s tempting for Democrats to believe the comments will backfire with an increasingly diverse electorate and seriously damage his re-election prospects.
But the cold reality for Democrats? The bulk of the nation’s demographic transformation is taking place in states that matter the least in deciding the Electoral College.
Democrats’ worst nightmare came true in November 2016 when Hillary Clinton captured 2.9 million more votes than Donald Trump but he still comfortably prevailed in the Electoral College, 306 to 232. As much as they would like to purge that outcome from memory, Democrats would be unwise to write it off as a fluke: In 2020, it’s possible Trump could win 5 million fewer votes than his opponent — and still win a second term.
The nation’s two most populous states, California and Texas, are at the heart of Democrats’ geography problem.
Both behemoths are growing more diverse at a much faster rate than the nation — owing to booming Asian and Latino populations — and are trending toward Democrats. Yet neither blue California nor red Texas would play a pivotal role in a close 2020 election, potentially rendering millions of additional Democratic votes useless.
Over the past four years for which census estimates are available, California’s population of nonwhite voting-age citizens has exploded by 1,585,499, while its number of white voting-age citizens has declined by a net 162,715. The Golden State’s GOP is in free fall: In May 2018, the state’s Republican registrants fell to third place behind “no party preference” voters for the first time. In 2016, Clinton stretched Barack Obama’s 2012 margin from 3 million to 4.2 million votes. But padding that margin by another 1.2 million votes wouldn’t yield the 2020 Democratic nominee a single additional Electoral vote.
Over the same time period, Texas has added a net 1,188,514 nonwhite voting-age citizens and just 200,002 white voting-age citizens. Texas’ economic boom has attracted a diverse, highly professional workforce to burgeoning urban centers of Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio and shifted the state’s politics leftward — especially as GOP votes have begun to “max out” in stagnant rural areas. In 2016, Clinton cut Obama’s 2012 deficit from 1.2 million to just over 800,000. But again, even cutting Trump’s margin by 800,000 wouldn’t yield the 2020 Democratic nominee a single additional Electoral vote.
Democrats’ potential inefficiencies aren’t limited to California and Texas: The list of the nation’s top 15 fastest-diversifying states also includes the sizable yet safely blue states of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Washington and Oregon…
…
Together, these six states — Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are best-positioned to decide which candidate reaches the magic 270 Electoral votes. That’s not to say that other states won’t be close: It’s possible Trump could win Maine, Minnesota, Nevada or New Hampshire, and it’s possible the Democratic nominee could win Georgia, Iowa, Ohio or Texas. But if either scenario materializes, the election will be a blowout and the victor will likely have already won the “swing six” comfortably.
Bottom line: Mired at an approval rating in the low 40s, Trump has a narrow path to re-election….
image…thewrap.com
A comment n tactic of racist Right Wingers is to refer to those they oppose as racist.
Donald Trump has adopted that pose in his continuing campaign against the so called “squad.”
Now he’s labelled them “racists.”
This will probably find favor with his racist supporters
Funny thing, Jack, he did just that. Is he projecting when he writes below
The “Squad” is a very Racist group of troublemakers who are young, inexperienced, and not very smart. ? Might also describe Youth for Trump.
With almost no inflation, our Country is needlessly being forced to pay a MUCH higher interest rate than other countries only because of a very misguided Federal Reserve. In addition, Quantitative Tightening is continuing, making it harder for our Country to compete. As good…..
….as we have done, it could have been soooo much better. Interest rate costs should have been much lower, & GDP & our Country’s wealth accumulation much higher. Such a waste of time & money. Also, very unfair that other countries manipulate their currencies and pump money in!
It is far more costly for the Federal Reserve to cut deeper if the economy actually does, in the future, turn down! Very inexpensive, in fact productive, to move now. The Fed raised & tightened far too much & too fast. In other words, they missed it (Big!). Don’t miss it again!
The Amazon Washington Post front page story yesterday was total Fake News. They said “Advisors wrote new talking points and handed him reams of opposition research on the four Congresswomen.” Now really, does that sound like me? What advisors, there were no talking points,….
….except for those stated by me, & “reams of paper” were never given to me. It is a made up story meant to demean & belittle. The Post had no sources. The facts remain the same, that we have 4 Radical Left Congresswomen who have said very bad things about Israel & our Country!
The Mainstream Media is out of control. They constantly lie and cheat in order to get their Radical Left Democrat views out their for all to see. It has never been this bad. They have gone bonkers, & no longer care what is right or wrong. This large scale false reporting is sick!
Fake News Equals the Enemy of the People!
Highly conflicted Robert Mueller should not be given another bite at the apple. In the end it will be bad for him and the phony Democrats in Congress who have done nothing but waste time on this ridiculous Witch Hunt. Result of the Mueller Report, NO COLLUSION, NO OBSTRUCTION!…
….But the questions should be asked, why were all of Clinton’s people given immunity, and why were the text messages of Peter S and his lover, Lisa Page, deleted and destroyed right after they left Mueller, and after we requested them(this is Illegal)?
The Report of Iran capturing CIA spies is totally false. Zero truth. Just more lies and propaganda (like their shot down drone) put out by a Religious Regime that is Badly Failing and has no idea what to do. Their Economy is dead, and will get much worse. Iran is a total mess!
Going with First Lady to pay our respects to Justice Stevens. Leaving now!
The “Squad” is a very Racist group of troublemakers who are young, inexperienced, and not very smart. They are pulling the once great Democrat Party far left, and were against humanitarian aid at the Border…And are now against ICE and Homeland Security. So bad for our Country!
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump
it’s call a ‘diversion’….
don’t let’m hit ya….
throw it on ANYBODY else….
the guy isn’t and never was a stand up guy….
look at his past record and his present….
Imagine how much less narrow Trump’s reelectiin campaign would be if he just ran on the econony?
Alas the right wing base of the GOP demands bullhorns.
Dog whistles will no longer suffice.
The economy isn’t a overall thing right now…
Not everybody feels things are good….
Wage growth for most is @ 1% annually if at all…
And some people are still seeing their jobs going overseas….
of course there is the tax that is opposite the taxes climbing for middle clas people in high tax states…
NOT Much of a good economy?
The conventional wisdom is if he “just ran on the economy”, it would be impossible to beat him.
Of course, he cannot help himself. Many in the GOP though wish he would.
It’s not as much about “dog whistles” for him as being able to use whatever ammo he can to vilify an opponent.
Remember in 2016, he stole the lines from Black Lives Matter and said Hillary was a racist for 1994 Crime Bill, etc, and he is saying the same about Biden. He has no ideological core. He just knows how to stir things up.
“Many in tbr GOP wish he would”
Well as the saying goes you can wish in one hand crap in the other and see which one fills up faster!
Here we go again–“he has no ideological core”
Maybe he does mat be he doesn’t. But right wingers for the most part LOVE what they hear.
And why wouldn’t they? They’ve been listening to Rush Limbaugh and watching FOX News for years. They finally have someone who doesn’t just dance around the same racism they hear on Rush and FOX. He wades right into it!
He doesn’t. Not sure what you are disagreeing with.
They will defend his racial arsonism and will also cheer him when he calls the left racist. They will find a way to agree that Joe Biden hates African-Americans because he led to so many being locked up. The Trump die-hards are convinced he is surprisingly popular among blacks and Latinos and they like having that delusion,
And has been long established, the left cried “wolf” over racism and bigotry for decades and decades when such an allegation was out of bounds and it came back to bite them when there was someone who actually was doing what they falsely accused the others of. (i.e Joe Biden saying Mitt Romney would put African-Americans “back in chains.”)
Now, it’s getting tossed around inside the party with AOC alluding that Pelosi is racist and various opponents of Biden pulling the race card on him,
Well we can go back and forth on this issue back over the years.
But, right now?Im not interested in history.
It’s 2019 and we have a Republican President Of the United States ,largely with the acquiescence of his party, engaging in what appears to be a deliberate effort to inject racism into his reelection campaign,complete with rallies(hatefests) where he stirs the crowd to racist chants,lies about his actions, (a lie that many Republicans latched onto as a defense),then (and I like this part) pulling the rug at from under them, by essentially reneging on his lie!
In my view, regardless of whether Trump wins reelection,these actions will have negative consequences for the Republican Party going forward into the forseeable future.,long after Trump has faded from the scene,in a country where Minorities are growing as a percentage of the population as the Republican “base” continues to shrink.
ok, and I basically hit all of those points in my last blog post, which people were nice enough to praise.
But like anything else, there is a history and a reasoning behind why things are where they are. We have gotten to this place somehow and the overall consequences may be continuing and escalating (i.e. Dems now accusing each other of racism far more frequently)
There will be a LOT of lawmakers trying to get their bearings when Trump steps down….
Non- politicians don’t always know better….
but lawmakers?
they ARE gonna have to do some internal political wrestling about what they didn’t do during Trumpism times…..
Yes but that’s not near the problem that the Republicans have where the Leader of their party ,with,except for a few exceptions, the acquiescence of their members, makes blatant racist appeals.
You might dislike Nancy Pelosi but when she exits the stage the dust up with some freshmen Congresspeople isn’t going to be part of her legacy.
This action by Trump will help define him going forward when the history of this time is written ,as will the aforementioned acquiescence of the Republican Party.
People were saying the same thing about John Boehner and the Tea Party members at this point in 2011.
It is all moving in the same direction for Democrats. For Biden (and thus what many feel is the party’s only hope of winning the White House), this could be a crucial factor.
82 % of Republicans back Trump (if not his tweets), according to CBS rather than the 94 % pulled out of the air.
CBS/YouGov poll out this weekend. The Marist/PBS/NPR poll, out today, also shows some striking results.
by Fred Backus & Anthony Salvanti, CBS News
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-americans-disagree-with-trumps-go-back-tweets-cbs-news-poll/ (this web page also has several graphics I can’t reproduce here)
The controversy around President Trump’s tweets last week comes at a time when nearly nine in 10 Americans see a nation divided along racial lines, and most believe the parties each hold different ideas about what makes a person an American.
A majority of Americans (59%) disagree with what the president said in his tweets last week about four Democratic congresswomen of color, including 44% who disagree strongly with what he said. But 40% of the country agrees with what Mr. Trump said. “‘Progressive’ Democratic Congresswomen” should “go back” to their countries, he tweeted last Sunday.
And in a nation which nine in 10 Americans believe is divided along racial lines, sharp partisan and racial differences define their views. Among Democrats, disagreement with what the president said runs high, at 88%. Most of those in agreement with the president are from his party, with 82% of Republicans agreeing, including 47% who strongly agree with the statements. Independents mirror the country overall — 58% disagree, including 41% who strongly disagree.
Overall, 48% of Americans describe the tweets as racist, and 34% feel they were not racist.
Whites are split: 41% call them racist, and 41% do not. However, among African-Americans, 76% describe the tweets as racist, as do a 54%-majority of Hispanics. There are age differences too: people over 65 are three times as likely to strongly agree with what the president said than are Americans under 30. And younger Americans are more likely than older Americans to call the tweets racist.
Most Republicans like the fact that the president tweeted those statements in the first place, and on this view, they stand apart from other Americans. While only 26% of Americans like Mr. Trump’s tweeting of the statements about the Democratic congresswomen, 57% of Republicans somewhat or strongly like that he did so, and only 18% say they dislike it. Most Republicans feel the ideas expressed in the tweets were pro-American, and 70% feel they were not racist.
Republicans are, however, comparatively less likely to call the tweets presidential (43%). Seventy-seven percent of Republicans feel the media has given the tweets too much attention.
Democrats call the tweets racist (84%), un-American (78%) and unpresidential (87%).
Most independents also call them unpresidential (55%) and unnecessary (54%).
More broadly, 85% of Americans think Democrats and Republicans today have different ideas about what makes someone American, and on this, large majorities of both parties agree. And 87% think America today is at least somewhat divided along racial lines, with Democrats more likely than Republicans to say it is very divided.
Congress today has more representatives of different backgrounds, races and religions than it used to. Most Democrats (63%) think this is making Congress better — though this may be related to partisanship, since many of those representatives are Democrats to begin with.
Sounds about what I said to Jack….
The 95% is off the walls….
I said that his support was “around” Ninety per cent,but more importantly ,and this has been ignored by you, I said that ,as of now, 8-9 of every ten Republicans would vote to re-elect Trump.
What was your opinion?You said you “didn’t know.”
I actually note with some amusement this rather desperate effort by you to make some point that really doesn’t matter.
Even the very small number of Republicans who don’t “approve” of Trump will likely vote for him in preference to any Democrat ,so i
my prediction above is well within the standard interpretation of such polling.
Further, I will note that you appear to be playing the “polling” game as I call it.
You “like” this poll so now it is the barometer of all polls?Laughable.
No desperate attempt …..
Just some caution….
You tend to go a bit overboard on Trump support…..
“Overboard?”
Only here will you find people seriously arguing about the depth of Republican support for Trump.
As anyone who knows anything about politics would know…Donald Trump enjoys overwhelming support among Republicans.To make a big deal about insignificant statistical disparities as to the level of that support reflects nothing more than ones obsession with minutiae,a common ailment on this site.
To say that on any given day Trump enjoys the support of from 8to9 out of every ten Republicans is not going “overboard” about anything.
To argue constantly about a percentage point here and there in ,yes, a Desperate attempt to justify the theory that Trump is losing Republican support, when there exists no evidence of such , is what led to my comment.
Amusingly this comes from one who constantly refers to the Republican Party as Trumps party but still contradictorily claiming that his support among Republicans is waning..
Such mishmash,however, is well known to those of us who post here and I’m sure we can expect more of it in the future from one who just refuses to accept the almost total dominance Donald Trump has over today’s Republican Party.
Of course I’m STILL gonna make MY points….
THAT is NOT gonna stop and is a fair place to go….
And your contradictions of course.
Yes,please, carry on, we are all used to it..
Today’s headline from you could be ?.”Trump Owns Republican Party”
Tomorrow’s?Republicans Turning on Trump.”
Jack?
if the smell blood in the water coming up on next November?
they will turn on him in a heartbeat…
you keep trying to sell the BIG support for Trump….
maybe for voters and others….
time and again we hear whispering about how GOP lawmakers are doing things because of fear….
They are NOT his real supporters , nor are they his his friends , nor does he pretend the same….
Lawmakers in Congress…
Republicans will have to salvage themselves after Trump leaves….
And he will leave….
In maybe even 20 months…..
Voters are all that matter.
You see James they actually “elect” candidates.
And who in the Hell but you apparently cares about the Livy liveried cowardly “lawmakers?”So they don’t “like” Trump?Gee whiz!
Trump treats them with the contempt they deserve.Theyll do what they’re told.
You get more silly by the post …
Lawmakers pass the laws that voters like or dislike…..
lawmakers won’t get rid of Trump….
Please do NOT forget this part of the equation….
Uh that’s what I said James, please read the above post.
Voters are all that matter.
I’m only interested in getting rid of Trump.
I couldn’t care less about Republican in Congress.