Kamala Harris moves on her debate ‘bounce’ into third place in the Democratic Presidential nomination race a hair behind second place Bernie Sanders , 6 months out from the primary voting…
The Real Clear Politics Average…..7/5/19
Biden….27.2
Sanders…14.8
Harris….14.7
Warren….13.5
Buttigieg…5,3
O’Rourke….2.3
Booker….2.3
Harris is pivoting to attacking Trump in the Biden mode….
James, you seem to understand polling about as much as the President understands the Constitution he (like many of us) has sworn to uphold.
The second, third and fourth place percentages are so close together that their margins of error overlap almost completely.
Sanders polled a nearly-meaningless 0.1 % above Kamala Harris. That means in a rather large hypothetical, synthetic sample of (say) 3,000, about 444 favoured Bernie Sanders and about 441 favoured Kamala Harris. Had the pollsters (of which I once was one) interviewed 3,000 other people, two more might have favoured Harris over Sanders, or Harris 443 to Sanders 442, making a difference of 0.3% or one-third of a person.
Even the 1.2% difference between Sen. Sanders and Sen. Warren is too small to say anything useful, especially thirty-plus weeks before the Iowa caucuses. In that hypothetical, synthetic (because it averages a dozen real polls) sample of 3,000, Warren would have had about 405 positive responses and Harris 441. If 3,000 different people had responded, 18 fewer might have preferred Harris and 18 more preferred Warren, producing a difference of 0.
So, as I wrote before, all this average of a dozen polls of varying accuracy tells us it that (a) Biden is still clearly ahead; (2) Sanders, Warren and Harris all come behind Biden, each winning about one half of Biden’s support; and (3) everyone else is each well behind all four of them.
I did mention that the race IS now for second place…
I have mentioned that there is only a difference of a hair between the two….
And Yes….
The two women are knocking hard onnBernie’s door….
Trends?
Biden ahead by good measure….But bleeding support…
Sanders also bleeding support to Warren and now Harris
Harris slightly sliding ahead on her ‘bounce’….
We have to see on Harris ….
There other top Three have established support
Can Harris bite off some from the others….
The $64,000 question is will Harris hold her bounce support?
Me NOT understand polls after ALL theses years????
Me the MOE guy?
Two years of statistics in college….
(THAT I DO NOT understand even though i got B’s)
I will still caution that it’s still early and these polls are subject to fairly wide swings especially as regards these “gotcha” spectacles aka “debates.”
Harris scored a good one last week and got a big bounce.One of the others could at the next one and then that candidate will jump up precipitately in the ensuing polls.
Until around Thanksgiving or so these big jumps might be the norm.Then, as the primaries and caucuses beckon, the numbers will likely start to harden and the weekly variances will be less volatile.
As of now, it appears that the field will be pruned by half or more by Iowa.
I’ll have THAT post later Jack….
quite a few won’t make the next debate cut….
And i’ve been kinda saying the same thing ur saying since the debate DSD…..