Kamala Harris see’s her ‘bounce’ show up in the second post debate poll….
But?
Joe Biden continues to own the Black vote, the favourite to beat Donald Trump and on the issues…
Those margins are in the double digits…
All in all?
Kamala Harris is the new flavour of the week based on a strong debate…
Julian Castro got almost nothing from his …..
Bernie Sanders continues to lose support to Elizabeth Warren…
Joe Biden continues to be the leader in the race for the nomination by a wide margin across the board….
Sens. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren have made steep gains after the first Democratic presidential debate, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. shows, with former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over the field shrinking to a narrow 5 points.
The results indicate a significant tightening in the race for the Democratic nomination.
The poll, conducted after the two-night debate, finds 22% of registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents backing Biden for the party’s presidential nomination, 17% Harris, 15% Warren and 14% Sen. Bernie Sanders. No one else in the 23-person field tested hits 5%…..
…
Biden’s strongest support continues to come among black voters (36% back Biden, 24% Harris, 12% Warren and 9% Sanders) and older voters (34% of seniors back Biden vs. 14% for Harris, 12% for Warren and just 7% for Sanders). He also tops 30% among more moderate and conservative Democratic voters (31% back him vs. 11% Harris, 10% Warren and 8% Sanders).
Biden tops the rest of the field by a wide margin as the candidate potential Democratic voters see as having the best shot to beat President Donald Trump.
Overall, 43% of potential Democratic voters say Biden has the best chance to beat Trump in 2020, 30 points ahead of his nearest competitor, Bernie Sanders. Further, 6 in 10 potential Democratic voters say it is more important to them that the party nominate a candidate with a strong chance of beating Trump than it is that they nominate someone who shares their views on major issues….
NOTE….
Real Clear Politics average keeps the Democratic nomination pecking order EXACTLY the same even after the two post debate polls….
image…USPresidentialElectionNews
Hmmmm?
The Hill runs story about CBC endorsements…
Most members have NOT given any…
Most members strongly lean to Biden because of Obama…
The reporter is talking about single numbers out of 55….
And?
The last two post debate polls shown little slippage of black voters from Biden….
….
CBC endorsements, a vital commodity in a Democratic primary, have taken on special significance this presidential cycle, as President Trump has injected issues of race into the election in unprecedented fashion and as a crowded Democratic field fights to nail down the support of black voters, who will be crucial in early primary states such as South Carolina.
Most lawmakers in the 55-member CBC have opted to stay on the sidelines in the early stages of the primary….
More…
The endorsement race from the CBC….
Harris 7
Biden 6
….
A senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus endorsed Joe Biden on Monday, giving the former vice president his sixth endorsement from the influential group.
Texas Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson is backing Biden, citing her “firsthand” view of his “commitment to getting real work done on behalf of all Americans.”
“Now, our nation is at a crossroads,” she said in a statement obtained by POLITICO. “We, more than ever, need a leader who can bring people together and get our country back on the right track. This is why I am proud to endorse my friend, Joe Biden, for president of the United States.”
More…
I’m surprised — although not gob-smacked — that the Cong’l Black Caucus now has 55 members.
I remember that there were so few Negro Congressmen (about four or five) in the early 1960’s that they didn’t even form a formal caucus. They came from big cities with large black districts, such as Harlem (Adam Clayton Powell), Chicago (William Dawson), Philadelphia (Robert Nix) and Detroit (Charles Diggs), joined in 1963 by Los Angeles (Augustus Hawkins).
Between 1901 and 1929 (not entirely coincidentally the height of Jim Crow and the Klan), there were no Negro members of Congress, and between 1929 and 1945, only one (from Chicago).
See:
https://history.house.gov/Exhibitions-and-Publications/BAIC/Historical-Data/Black-American-Representatives-and-Senators-by-Congress/
Gonna be MORE Black,Brown and Yellow lawmakers in the Congress….
Republicans can’t stop it….
A few will be in their party too….
This far out (considering both these polls and what I remember from the NBC poll shown last Sunday), and given all the margins of error, especially in sub-samples, and before the second debate is held, all we can reasonably see is a fuzzy low-resolution sketch of the horse-race. (References to the cave analogy in Plato’s Republic are not out of place here):
1. Biden still clearly in first place though falling
2 & 3 (in no particular order). Sanders (falling) and Warren (rising) in second & third place
4 & 5 (in no order). Harris and (remarkably) Buttigieg, both rising
Rest nowhere (at least for now) — my money, though not necessarily, my heart, if I had to choose between also-rans with a chance of rising higher, would be on Cory Booker, rather than Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke or Juliàn Castro.
I would just have Sanders STILL in 2nd place but fading ….Harris is STILL behind Warren in fourth….
I want to see how lang the Harris ‘bounce’ stay’s…
She did this on her rollout and hasn’t really moved much….
As Jack pointed out…
Except for a surprise?
For Me?…The race IS Biden vs the other 3…..
Buttigieg HAS been a surprise…
But in the end?
My feeling is he has no serious chance….
Biden is polling AHEAD of the field in EVERY primary state going into Super Tuesday…
If he wins Iowa, NH, SC and Ca?
He’s the nominee….
This WILL be over by March 3rd….
That is only 8 months from now….
It²s still early days. Remember (if you can) when Bernie Sanders was among the curiosity candidates polling 1% or less ?
The people in whom I have confidence that any of them could handle not only Inauguration Day, but taking full advantage of the 10-week transition after Election Day are Joe Biden (most qualified), Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar. Of course, my appraisal could change as we see more of these folks in debate and on the hustings.
Those who have yet to prove to me that they’re ready to jump in on the day after the election are Beto O’Rourke, Julián Castro and (especially) Pete Buttigieg. Plus most of the others, although I could see Michael Bennet, Jay Inslee or Bill de Blasio rising to the challenge.
That’s a dozen; I’ll see if (in Sporcle-like fashion) I can remember the others:
[in no particular order]
13. Hickenlooper; 14. Delaney; 15. Yang; 16. Williamson;
17. Gabbard; 18. Swalwell; 19. Gillibrand; 20. ?? *
plus off-stage: Steve Bullock, Wayne Messam, Seth Moulton, Mike Gravel (¡¡ ¿¿ ?? !!), and one of two very-easy to overlook others.
* How on earth could I forget Tim Ryan ?
Time CAN move fast on ya….