Nate Cohen over at the NY Times…The Upshot explores the idea….
President Trump’s approval ratings are under water in national polls. His position for re-election, on the other hand, might not be quite so bleak.
His advantage in the Electoral College, relative to the national popular vote, may be even larger than it was in 2016, according to an Upshot analysis of election results and polling data.
That persistent edge leaves him closer to re-election than one would think based on national polls, and it might blunt any electoral cost of actions like his recent tweets attacking four minority congresswomen.
For now, the mostly white working-class Rust Belt states, decisive in the 2016 election, remain at the center of the electoral map, based on our estimates. The Democrats have few obviously promising alternative paths to win without these battleground states. The president’s approval ratings remain higher in the Sun Belt battlegrounds than in the Rust Belt, despite Democratic hopes of a breakthrough.
Sure this could happen.
It’s why the EC won’t go away anytime soon.
Republicans know it is increasingly unlikely that they can ,or will be able in the future ,to win a majority ,or even a plurality of the popular vote.
i agree on the EC….
it actually does what it was intended to do….
counteract the popular vote….
and make candidates work the WHOLE System….
THAT SAID?
it tends to produce a minority supported President….
How interesting for a supposed to be Democracy?
The rule of the many vs the file of the few, eh?
In seven elections since 1990, the Republican candidate has won a plurality (in this case a 50.7% majority) of the national popular vote, but still won the Electoral College three times (2000, 2004 & 2016) compared to four Democratic Electoral College victories (1992-96 & 2008-12).
you mean THIS POST?