Hmmmmm?
On Boris Johnson’s first day as Britain’s head of government, the loquacious Ian Blackford stood in the House of Commons and welcomed “the last prime minister of the United Kingdom.”
Blackford, the Scottish National Party’s leader in Parliament, was not being subtle. He was suggesting that with Johnson as prime minister, the United Kingdom might soon crack up, beginning with Scotland.
Scotland voted against independence in 2014, but there is much animosity toward Johnson north of the border, and a palpable dread over leaving the European Union — especially the hard, “no-deal Brexit” that the new prime minister says Britain must prepare for.
In the country’s 2016 Brexit referendum, Scotland voted to remain in the E.U. by a wide margin, 62 percent to 38 percent.
Johnson dashed up to Scotland on Monday, with a scheduled stop at a military base and a speech in the afternoon.
The new prime minister is a divisive character — loved and very much disliked — across the United Kingdom, a political union comprising four nations: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Or as Johnson called it on the steps of Downing Street last week, “the awesome foursome that are incarnated in that red, white and blue flag,” the Union Jack….
image…edition.cnn.com
Not just Scotland but perhaps also (Northern) Ireland ?
A no-deal Brexit could lead to a united Ireland and the break-up of the United Kingdom, Taoiseach (Irish prime minister) Leo Varadkar has said.
Boris Johnson told the Commons on Thursday that the route to a Brexit deal would be to persuade the EU to “abolish” the Irish border backstop. *
*[The backstop is a key piece of the deal negotiated by his predecessor’s government, dictating what will happen to the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
[It is a last resort that guarantees a frictionless border if no better solution is devised in time – by maintaining close ties between the UK and the EU until such a solution is found.]
The EU maintains the withdrawal agreement was the best one possible and removing the backstop was unacceptable.
Mr Varadkar said the possibility of a no-deal Brexit was “a British threat”.
He added that he hoped that was not the option the new prime minister was choosing.
On Thursday, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, sent a note to European leaders, repeating the EU’s position that getting rid of the backstop was “of course unacceptable”, and labelling Mr Johnson’s speech “rather combative”.
Speaking at a summer school in County Donegal on Friday, the taoiseach said in the event of a no-deal Brexit, more people in Northern Ireland would come to question the union.
“People who you might describe as moderate nationalists or moderate Catholics, who were more or less happy with the status quo, will look more towards a united Ireland,” he said.
“I think increasingly you’ll see liberal protestants, liberal unionists starting to ask the question as to where they feel more at home.
“Is it in a nationalist Britain, that’s you know talking about potentially bringing back the death penalty and things like that, or is it part of a common European homeland and part of Ireland?
“One of the things, ironically that could really undermine the union, the United Kingdom union is a hard Brexit.”
more at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49127616
Could Boris Johnson wreck the British economy ALL by himself?
Gosh?
This guy may outdo Trump in stupidity
…
Currency traders are aggressively pricing in a no-deal Brexit scenario after remarks over the weekend from the U.K.’s new leadership coalition, headed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and are selling the pound as a result.
What’s happening: Michael Gove, who is in charge of planning for a possible no-deal exit from the EU, has said the British government is “working on the assumption” that it will leave without a deal.
The pound on Monday dropped 1.3%, and fell further Tuesday morning, touching its lowest level against the dollar in close to 3 years….
Axios…
I don’t know a ton about Boris Johnson.
I just know that Jeremy Corbyn is a million times worse.
Gotta go.
The Liberal Democrats have won the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, leaving new PM Boris Johnson with a working majority in Parliament of one.
Jane Dodds overturned an 8,038 majority to beat Conservative Chris Davies by 1,425 votes.
Mr Davies stood again after being unseated by a petition following his conviction for a false expenses claim.
It was the first electoral test for Mr Johnson just eight days after becoming prime minister.
t was also the quickest by-election defeat for any new prime minister since World War Two.
Now, with the thinnest majority, he will have to rely heavily on the support of his own MPs and his confidence-and-supply partners the DUP to get any legislation passed in key votes.
It was a bad night for Labour, whose vote share dropped by 12.4% as it was beaten into fourth place by the Brexit Party.
The result means the Lib Dems now have 13 MPs.
Ms Dodds, who is the Welsh Liberal Democrat leader, said: “My very first act as your new MP when I get to Westminster will be to find Mr Boris Johnson, wherever he’s hiding, and tell him to stop playing with the future of our community and rule out a no-deal Brexit.”
Mr Davies congratulated Ms Dodds saying “I wish her well for the future” and paid tribute to his family saying they had “a difficult time over the past few months”.
The turnout was 59.6%, down from 74.6% at the general election, but it is the highest for a by-election since Winchester in 1997.
Neither Plaid Cymru nor the Greens fielded candidates, to try to maximise the Remain vote.
More, including full election returns and the state of the parties in the House of Commons,, at BBC News:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-49200636
Briefly:
State of the parties in Parliament
220 Government
210 Conservative; 10 Dem. Unionist Party (N. Ireland)
219 Opposition
245 Labour; 39 Scots & Welsh Nationalists; 13 Liberal Democrats; 21 assorted independents (largely anti-Brexit); 1 Green
11 other
7 Sinn Féin (doesn’t take up seats); The Speaker & 3 Deputy Speakers
In case of a tie vote, the Speaker (John Bercow) traditionally votes to keep the exiting Government in office.
Brecon & Radnorshire (Wales) by-election
43.5 % Liberal Democratic
39.0 % Conservative
10.5 % Brexit Party
5.3 % Labour
The Green Party and the Welsh Party (Plaid Cymru) did not present candidates in order to maximise the pre-Remain/anti-Brexit vote.
What does the tiny majority mean for Brexit DSD?
I can only give you the technical explanation, James.
If the working majority (Tory + Dem. Unionist) falls below the number of MP’s in the combined Opposition, then the Government might lose a vote of confidence or a Supply (appropriations) Bill, in which case the Prime Minister is customarily expected to ask the Queen to prorogue the Parliament and call a new General Election.
That’s what has happened in the past: over time, a Government with a modest but comfortable majority can lose enough seats in successive bye-elections that either the Government proposes and loses a vote of confidence or the Opposition proposes and wins a vote of no confidence. customarily forcing a dissolution of Parliament and a General Election a few weeks later.
This happened to Clement Attlee’s second Labour Government which barely won re-election in 1950, only to lose enough Members of Parliament over the following year to force the General Election of 1951 which Winston Churchill won (at the same time that Labour had still held a preponderance of popular votes).
As for your more-specific question: what does this mean for Brexit?, there is a wide range of informed opinions.
See, for example,
Hopes grow for General Election ‘Remain Alliance’ following Brecon and Radnorshire by-election (Left Foot Forward, a cross-party forum of the Left:
https://leftfootforward.org/2019/08/parties-hail-success-of-remain-alliance-in-brecon-and-radnorshire-by-election/
Phillip Taylor: Conservative Central HQ cannot be complacent about the resurgent threat of the Liberal Democrats</b.
By Phillip Taylor in Conservative Home, a Tory forum:
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/08/phillip-taylor-cchq-cannot-be-complacent-about-the-resurgent-threat-of-the-liberal-democrats.html
Unless we’re clear on Brexit, Boris Johnson will win the next election
Lloyd Russell Moyle in LabourList:
https://labourlist.org/2019/08/unless-were-clear-on-brexit-boris-johnson-will-win-the-next-election/
If we have a snap election, I have a couple of requests…
By Daniel Henry in Liberal Democrat Voice, an independent LD forum:
https://www.libdemvoice.org/if-we-have-a-snap-election-i-have-a-couple-of-requests-61584.html
Are they saying that there could be ANOTHER ‘snap-election’DSD?
Who knows?
If one is held, it’s possible that the two big winners, as in last June’s elections to the European Assembly, would be the Europhobe Brexit Party and the vigorously-Europhile Liberal Democrats. The Tories would fall and Labour might fall so far as to be in third place.
There’s a strong incentive, therefore, for Labour and the Tories to avoid a General Election, while the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the Scottish National Party and the Welsh Party (Plaid Cymru) — all passionately anti-Brexit, would gain from one, as would the Brexit Party.
Their politics is so fluid and confusing!
The Guardian
@guardian
Behind the Tory claims of bold Brexit action is nothing but empty bravado | Nick Cohen