North Carolina, Texas…now Trump’s mid 2019 polling shows him weak politically in a place he shouldn’t be….
The Right leaning American South…
This COULD create trouble for Republicans down ballot this year and next….
A clear majority of Louisiana voters don’t want Donald Trump to win a second term as president, an independent poll shows.
The survey by pollster Verne Kennedy also shows that as many of the 600 likely voters in Louisiana polled in April approved of Trump’s performance as disapprove of it, which is a further reflection of the president’s problems in a state where he won easily in 2016 with 58% of the vote over Hillary Clinton, the Democrat.
There’s more bad news for Trump in Kennedy’s poll: Louisiana voters by 49% to 41% opposed the wall on the U.S.-Mexico border that the president wants to build.
Trump’s weaker-than-expected poll results will likely have consequences for this year’s governor’s race because many Republicans have been saying a late-in-the-campaign endorsement from the president could deliver the decisive blow for a conservative Republican to knock off Gov. John Bel Edwards, a Democrat.
If the poll numbers hold up, Trump might be too weak in advance of the Oct. 12 primary to make a difference for either of Edwards’ Republican challengers, U.S. Rep. Ralph Abraham from Alto in northeast Louisiana or Eddie Rispone, an electrical contractor from Baton Rouge….
Note…
Trump is bound to bounce back somewhat come Election Day 2020…
But?
How much?
Despite this poll Is be very surprised if Trump’s margin of victory in Louisiana was less than 10%.
However, if he’s winning Louisiana by only 10 points that means he is down in significant numbers with demographics he needs to win battleground states like NC, WI, FL, PA, etc.
Louisiana is marginally more Democratic in Presidential election years than many Southern states.
She voted for Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996, as well as for Jimmy Carter in 1976 (as did every Southern and Border state except Virginia & Oklahoma).
Having lived in Louisiana, I would say there is no chance that the state will go blue in 2020. While I like the people of Louisiana in some ways (that could be a different post), they could care less about things like corruption or sexual misconduct. In fact, they admire it!
And Louisiana has only trended deeper red from my days in that state, Trump easily wins Louisiana.
Agreed.
With all due respect to DSDs historical perspective,comparing Louisiana (or any southern state) to twenty to forty years ago has almost no value.All have become much more Republican ,particularly in presidential elections ,in the interval.
I wouldn’t dispute either of you.
The old Long family Democratic tradition has just about died out among white voters, while the black population of 31.8%, although 2nd in percentage after Mississippi (36.9%), doesn’t seem large enough to swing the Pelican State blue in Presidential years. In 2016 and 2012, the GOP candidate won about 1.2 million votes in Louisiana, while the Democrat won about 800,000.
I state here that both Texas and Louisiana will most probably go for Trump….
But the margins are dropping for GOPer’s across the South as the demographics of the country continue to change….