Yea….
I KNOW most who read the above will smirk and say …..’the wasn’t supposed to win and he DID’….
Now?
The word on Donald Trump is np matter how bad it gets for him on all fronts?
He’s gonna somehow win a second term…
I for one?….Do NOT believe that…
Here’s another person that also doesn’t think it’s beyond reason that Donald Trump could be doing his last 18 months as President…
Four years of Trump is a national disaster. Eight years is a confirmation that it was no fluke. It embeds his degenerate style of government in the fabric of the Republic for the future. For those of us who believe in civic republicanism and a liberal future, no stone can be left unturned to ensure his defeat. It’s not just that the stakes are so high. He has big advantages in the electoral college. Incumbents usually get reelected. And let’s be frank: he already did once what many of us thought was all but impossible.
But we’d be lying to ourselves if we didn’t recognize another possible scenario, one which a lot of the factual evidence suggests is not at all unlikely. That is that Trump is a historically unpopular president; he routinely polls over 50 percent of the voting population saying they will definitely vote against his reelection; and he is likely to be crushed in his bid for reelection in 18 months….
…
Start with the most obvious fact: President Trump is the most consistently unpopular President in at least a century. He has not had a net positive approval rating for his entire presidency and has durably had approval ratings in the low 40s, sometimes dipping down into the 30s.The consistency of his unpopularity rather than its depth is what sets him apart. Other presidents have been that low and even gone on to win reelection. None has been that low for his entire presidency. That suggests a strong ceiling he cannot get above. For any other President we’d recognize this as a massive reelection warning sign. It’s really no different or shouldn’t be any different with President Trump.
The intensity of opposition is even more telling. Polls routinely show that well over 50% of voters say they will definitely not vote for him for reelection. A Quinnipiac poll from a week ago found that Trump had a 41% approval rating while 57% disapproved of him. More significantly 54% said they would “definitely” not vote to reelect him. A January Marist poll had the number of definite nos at 57%.
Could people change their minds? Of course. But this is a measure of the steepness of the climb. Trump needs to get all the undecideds and then peel off a significant number who say there’s no way they’d ever vote for him. That’s hard.
These are again, massive warning signs for reelection defeat…..
I’m not overconfident but if Trump loses a good chunk of the “what the he’ll why not” vote he got in 2016 and is left with only the hardcore GOP base he could possibly lose 3-4% from his 46% in 2016.
If Trump only gets 43% of the popular vote and the third party vote is under 5% that would indeed be a blowout. Pretty much all the swing states from last time (PA,WI, MI, NC, FL) will go blue as well as AZ and GA, maybe even TX.
I think if the economy stays strong the likelihood of that kind of drop in GOP support is low. But if it skows 43% may be a best case scenario for Trump.
The economy is actually getting mushy already….
I know people keep saying it’s early…
But for some places it actually isn’t…
The general election is in 16 months….
Trump being behind in so MANY places and his import tax/tariff policies might just seal the deal….
Immigration does NOT play strongly in the states he needs…
You’re right…
The economy and even healthcare will…
Trump HAS a record in office THIS time….
Maybe it is mostly just me, but I don’t have much hope for fair elections in Georgia. Replacing voting machines that have a paper trail with machines that don’t sure sounds nefarious to me,and Georgia already has a recent history on this.
People gonna try to cover their tracks anyway the can
The Obama’12 states that went for Trump in 2018 were:
Pa, Ohio, Mich., Wisc, Iowa & Florida
The Obama”08 states that went for Romney in 2012 and Trump in 2016 were:
Indiana & North Carolina
Ok…
Let’s look at this….
Pa, Ohio, Mich and Iowa AND North Carolina have Biden ahead…
They are tied in RCP for Florida…
I can’t find an Indiana poll….
16 months out?
Donald Trump has a LOT of catching up to do…
I feel that mountain is MUCH higher than in 2016 and he has a few political lead weights around his ankles?
Remember…
Trump won’t be running against a women or black/mixed race guy….
Iowa and Ohio both swumg pretty hard to Trump in 2016 (won both by 9 % I believe) so right now I see those 24 combined EVs to be more of a reach than the 26 combined electoral votes of AZ and NC.
However 2018 was promising for both Iowa and Ohio with the former flipping two congressional seats blue and Sherrod Brown winning pretty handily in the latter.
I agree with Scott. Both Ohio and Iowa have been trending red. If the Democrstic nominee wins there, she/he will have likely already have won in a landslide. Right now, my bet is that if one candidate can win both Florida and Wisconsin, she/he will win the election.
Traveling to Dallas on business tomorrow, and will be there all week.
Safe and good travel Z….
Biden isn’t ahead in Florida….
He needs to work the state, which should be ripe for him with Trump’s Trade War….
Doing a little of the tabletop exercises on 270 to Win, I see that of realistic possibilities, the Democratic candidate could win by flipping Florida (29 electors) — which raises the D total to 261, plus any other single Trump state (o pair of states) that sends more than 8 Electors to College.
[Florida + 8 other Electors would give the Democrat 269 elcctoral votes, which is precisely half of 538, not a majority.]
So, apart from Iowa’ trending redder, her 6 electors alone wouldn’t be enough to add to Florida’s 29 to reach the necessary majority.
But Florida (29) plus either Wisconsin (10) or Michigan (16) or Indiana (11) or Ohio (18) or Pennsylvania (20) or North Carolina (15) would be.
Without Florida (29), the Democrat would need either (A) both Ohio (18) and Pennsylvania (20) or (B) some combination of three Obama > Trump states.
See and try for yourself at:
https://www.270towin.com/
Biden will get Pa…..
Needs Nevada, Mich, Wisconsin., Arizona…
May I add….
A Q poll has Biden over Trump 48% to 44% in TEXAS!
Despite CG and maybe Z?
Trump & Co. have a LOT to worry about….
Joe Biden has to just keep his mouth on target…..
Trump definitely has much to worry about politically but james is drastically overconfident with his bluster, no different than he was in 2010, 2014, and 2016 when he refused to accept even the possibility of a Democrat loss. In 2012, james was convinced Obama would win in a landslide. In 20016, he thought Hillary would win the nomination without as much as breaking a sweat. He is a cheerleader first of course. That’s ok. Every party needs them. Of course, I underestimated Trump was well in 2016, both in the primaries and the general election.
There is a long way to go and it is far from safe to assume that Biden is going to be the nominee. He has much to worry about in that regard as well. If he is, I think he is far from the political supertsar that james has him out to be. We have seen that this week.
Just because Corey says something doesn’t Mean he is wrong; Biden came across as pandering to me this week. He sure looked like he suddenly changed his position for political convenience.
It is still early to decide who To vote for, but all of us should be taking notes.
I should have said it is too early to decide who to vote for in the primary. I can’t imagine not supporting the Democratic nominee – although as Corey correctly stated I know nothing about Gravel! (Ha ha)
CG is just pulling our leg’s to make a point ….
That’s why we have fun here….
I agree CG can be right…
But on Biden?
EVERYBODY changes their mind …
He wasn’t the only one that voted for Hyde….
He’s been thru several ‘gotcha’s’ and his support holds…
He is STILL the best right n ow to beat Trump….BY FAR!
It is my understanding that the Hyde Amendment only came up by itself for a vote in 1977, so it is very misleading and disingenuous to say Warren supported it.
I don’t object to candidates changing their mind, but you don’t make a statement one day and the say something very different the next day. It smacked of political opportunism.
Changing one minds on something is a sign of maturity and smarts…
Much MORE for Politicians
Nobody had Trump winning…
Not even him…
On Biden?
I think Trump see’s it my way ….
That’s why he already going after him more seriously than the other’s…
I don’t think that Trump has a brilliant mind, so what he “thinks” if that is what you call it doesn’t concern me. Trump going after Biden only helps Biden in the primary.
Trump was given about 30% odds winning last election, but yes, there were some people – such as yourself – who were rather loud that he had NO chance.
Let the candidates campaign and let’s see who stands out. We still have 1/2 year before the first caucus. So far, Biden reminds me of Hillary in that his supporters (you excluded) have little passion for him. I still haven’t decided who I will vote for. Who knows, maybe it will be Biden. I’m hoping he steps up his game – as I am hoping for all of the Dems running. I will be looking for some passion, and for him to have a message other than “Trump is awful”, which so far is mostly what I have seen. But it is still early, and a mistake now is less important than a mistake in six months. Let’s keep an open mind and root for all the Dem candidates to improve their game.
My wife thinks he’s dumb…
I think he’s sly …
But mosr of his action’s in b business have failed as I have posted here…
I believe he’s doing the same thing with the country try which isn’t a stretch for him…
I agree…
The nomination race go on…
As I said with Hillary…
It only makes the winner STRONGER